Telugu politics, inclusive of both Telangana and Andhra Pradesh, present a political paradox of sorts. While Telangana’s current poll battle is essentially a fight between two national parties – the BJP and the Congress – and the regional outfit BRS is on a steep and a rapid decline, the politics of Andhra Pradesh are mainly focused on two strong regional parties – incumbent YS Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP and challenger Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP. The national parties in Andhra Pradesh are at best marginal players with the Congress failing to get even a single security deposit back and the BJP scoring less than one per cent in the 2019 elections.
This apart, the Telangana with its 17 constituencies, is going for the Lok Sabha polls only, while the AP’s voters will exercise their franchise for both the 175-member legislative assembly and the 25MP seats of Lok Sabha. Thus, the focal aspects of elections in both the states vastly differ.
BRS – the fall of a meteor
In Telangana, the utter demoralization of the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS) after a total decimation in the 2023 assembly elections has almost rendered the poll battle a bipolar one. The BRS has been suffering large-scale desertions and erosion of support base. The Muslim vote bank and the migrant Andhra settler vote that constituted the two crutches on which the BRS stood, have dumped the party, with the Muslims inching closer to the Congress Party. The Majlis Ittehadul Muslimeen, which cavorted with the BRS all these days, is making amorous overtures to the newfound love, the Congress Party. The migrant Andhra voters too are seeking safer pastures in both the Congress and the BJP.
The BRS, which lorded over Telangana for nearly a decade, is now bereft of candidates. Three of its sitting MPs have switched sides. At least two MP candidates have opted out of contest. The latest to desert the sinking ship is senior leader Kadiyam Srihari’s daughter Kadiyam Kavya, who opted out of MP contest from Warangal seat. Also, Gadwal Vijayalakshmi, the mayor of the prestigious Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) that accounts for a third of state’s voters, has decided to leave the party. Her father, a Congress veteran and a sitting Rajya Sabha MP, has said that he would rather die with his body sheathed in the Congress flag than the BRS’ pink flag.
The sheen and shimmer of KTR, the heir apparent to KCR’s political legacy, is worn off. KCR himself is a pale shadow of his former self. His daughter dear Kavitha Kalwakuntla had her comeuppance languishing in Tihar jail. High profile nephew J Santosh Kumar has quietly withdrawn from the front line. Another nephew and former minister T Harish Rao appears to be the lone ranger defending the fast-shrinking BRS territory.
Thus, BRS would possibly go down in the annals of Indian political history as the party that suffered the fastest yet unlamented death after just one defeat. The mighty edifice of the BRS, which was based on the single shaky pillar of Telangana statehood/KCR’s charishma like the wobbling pillars of Medigadda reservoir that KCR ambitiously built, is coming crushing down.
AP – a story of ‘Tamilnadu-isation’ and ‘Keralisation’
In Andhra Pradesh, the politics seem to be taking two definitive directions. Political discourse-wise, it is seeing a definite “Tamil Nadu-isation” – the political language getting increasingly abrasive and abusive, the action against rivals getting far too below the belt. Political action-wise, the state is witnessing increasing “Keralisation” with parties increasingly becoming caste-conscious. The core electoral debate in the state has boiled down to just two issues – caste equations and the euphemistically called ‘welfarism and in that order.
Most discerning political observers see a clear urban -rural divide among the voters with the urbanites rooting for the TDP-JS-BJP combine and the rural voters veering towards the ‘welfarist’ YSRCP. Somewhere in between, caste equations appear to be ruling the roost. Wily YS Jagan has given more seats to the backward communities, while the TDP seems warped in a caste calculus that is still warped in the 1980s. The TDP combine is still searching for a suitable political perch to go to the voters, while the YSRCP is batting on a caste-welfare political pitch.
The outcome of this election could end up in a bleak future for the regional party that ends up on the losing side. A defeat could mean the end of Jagan’s brand for personality-based, dole-oriented, centralised and autocratic political formation. His party could face the same fate that the BRS is facing in Telangana next door. Similarly, TDP’s brand of regionalist and dynastic politics could walk into the sunset if Jagan manages to trump anti-incumbency. An ageing Chandrababu, inept Lokesh and a geriatric second rung could sound a death-knell for the 41-year-old regional outfit. Thus, the regionalist battle of attrition could verily be a fight to finish for both the parties.
BJP’s South Push begins here
Where does the BJP stand in all this? BJP’s ambitious south-push begins from Telangana. The party is aiming to win double digit seats in this state and is sure to do well in the Hindutva belt, which comprises undivided Adilabad, Nizamabad and Medak districts in west and north Telangana. The party is also brightening its prospects in Mahabubnagar, Hyderabad and its surroundings. The winds are favourable and there is a groundswell of support for Modi and the BJP.
In fact, Modi himself repeatedly termed Telangana as the ‘Gateway to the South.’ As for Andhra, there is a similar upsurge in the support for Modi and it remains to be seen how this support is channelised to achieve victories. The party has fielded heavyweights like former union minister and NTR’s daughter Purandeswari and former chief minister Nallari Kiran Kumar Reddy .
These could have a cascading effect on Tamil Nadu, where the party’s prospects seem to be on an upswing. Karnataka has been favouring the BJP consistently in the Lok Sabha elections regardless of the outcome in the assembly elections that just precede the parliamentary polls. With things brightening up in Kerala too, the BJP can hope for an encouraging and energising performance in the southern part of India.
One major direction that the politics down south seems to be taking is towards nationalist politics. Regional outfits across the south of India are suffering a downturn be it Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana or Andhra Pradesh. Even in Kerala, there is a definite trend in favour of the nationalist politics. Political observers feel that the 2024 elections will more than firm up this trend.
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