Pakistan economy on verge of collapse
In London, Pakistan Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar made a feeble attempt at starting the process of normalising relations with India the other day. It was while addressing a press conference on Saturday (March 24) that Dar said that Pakistan was seriously considering resuming trade ties with India. He was echoing sentiments that the trading community of Pakistan, strong supporters of Nawaz Sharif’s PML-N, hold on the issue.
Incidentally, the distance between Islamabad and London is around 7,500 km by land route. On the other hand, the distance between Islamabad and Delhi is 800 km, a little more than 1/10th of what it is between London and Islamabad. Therein hangs a tale, as it shows clearly that Dar did not dare make these comments in Islamabad, not far away from GHQ in Rawalpindi.
This also indicates that on the Pakistani side, there is no consensus or clarity on bilateral relations with India. President Asif Zardari, General Asim Munir and Prime Minister Shebaz Sharif comprise the troika that rules Pakistan at present and Dar can’t claim to be speaking on behalf of any of them. The Foreign Minister was speaking more as Finance Minister, a position he had in Shehbaz’s first tenure.
The present state of India-Pakistan relations are a legacy of August 5, 2019, decision to abrogate Article 35-A, neutering Article 370 and bifurcating erstwhile state of Jammu & Kashmir into two Union Territories (UTs). In a knee jerk reaction at that time, Pakistan government headed by Imran Khan had snapped trade ties, as also downgraded diplomatic engagement. He then went a step further declaring that any normal ties with Bharat were possible only after reversing August 2019 decisions.
Much before that, in February 2019, after the Pulwama blast, the Most Favoured Nation (MFN) status accorded to Pakistan had been withdrawn. Balakot strikes and other related developments could not shake the ties as much as abrogation of Article 35-A did. Pakistan shouted from rooftops that this was aimed at changing the demography of J&K, not that it had any impact in Delhi or at international level.
Incidentally, Dar’s words are unlikely to be heeded, or taken up seriously by Delhi at this point in time and he may have endure a wait of over 100 days to get a reply, unofficial or official! Dar’s comments have come 50 days after the February 8 elections in Pakistan and it is Bharat’s turn to be in election mode. Where nothing else matters much right now, other than a focus on the 7-phase elections beginning on April 19.
Who could be behind Dar’s conciliatory words if the top troika of Pakistan is not goading him on? It is most likely that he could have been given the push by Nawaz Sharif, who was upstaged by younger brother Shehbaz Sharif. The younger Sharif is clearly preferred by the Miltablishment (military establishment) over Bade Mian Sharif. The Bade Mian had come back to Pakistan from London in October 2023 after positive signalling from General Munir.
In Februray 8 elections, however, the magic of Bade Mian did not work and he was a disappointment for General Munir and ISI. It was only mass rigging that prevented Imran’s Pakistan Tehreek Insaaf (PTI) supported candidates from sweeping National Assembly (NA) and provincial assembly polls. Nawaz Sharif has lost and won elections, but the Pakistan Army had lost a domestic election for the first time. Instead of becoming Pakistan PM for the fourth time, an expectation Bade Mian had harboured, he finds himself stranded in a no man’s land.
Dar’s words look like that of Bade Mian, who as an ace businessmen, is given to deal-making. Indirect trade continues between the two neighbours but most goods from Bharat get into Pakistani markets via Dubai, with transportation and handling making them costlier.
In March 2021, Imran’s PTI was about to partially lift embargo on trade with India but Pakistan cabinet vetoed the recommendation of the Economic Coordination Committee (ECC). Shehbaz Sharif and other opposition parties vociferously opposed Economic Coordination Committee (ECC) proposals. Interestingly, security establishment headed by Army Chief General Qamar Bajwa was then in favour of the ECC decision.
General Bajwa is widely believed to be behind the ceasefire that was put into place between the two nations in February 2021. It was backroom Track II parleys between the two sides that had led to reviving November 2003 ceasefire then.
Dar’s desire for restoration of trade ties that with Pakistan, it has been truly a case of acting in haste and repenting at leisure.
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