BJP’s Rising Influence: Tracing footprints in the North East

Published by
Abhay Kumar

North East region is one of the important and resourceful regions in India. It is connected by 22 km long Chicken’s Neck or through the Siliguri Corridor in West Bengal. It consists of 8 States, including Sikkim. The Congress party never give due recognition to the region as it is not so politically important. The region has 8 States but only 25 Lok Sabha seats. Assam is the biggest and the gateway to the region. Assam has 14 Lok Sabha seats, and barring Assam, the region has only 11 Lok Sabha seats in the rest of 7 States.

The North East region was a stronghold of the Congress party since the beginning of the rest of the country. Since 2014, the BJP has penetrated the North East region in a big way. The BJP performed remarkably well in Assam in two previous assembly elections. In the 2011 Assam Assembly elections, the BJP won only 5 seats, while in 2016, the BJP won 60 seats on its own by contesting only 84 seats. Before 2016, the best performance of the BJP was 10 seats in the 1991 and 2006 Assembly elections in Assam. The BJP increased its seat tally by 55 seats to 60 in 2016. The NDA alliance won 86 seats in the 2016 Assembly elections in Assam. In the 2021 Assembly elections in Assam, the BJP maintained its seat tally of 60 seats. The BJP also demonstrated its knack for alliance formation in Assam and forged alliances with Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) and United People’s Party Liberal(UPPL). The BJP also forged an alliance with the Bodoland People’s Front (BPF). The BJP never hesitates to share seat with like-minded and party having commitment to people’s cause. The BJP has also increased and maintained its footprints in Assam in Lok Sabha elections too. It won 7 seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll and increased it to 9 seats in the 2019 LS poll. It’s very likely the BJP tally will further increase in the 2024 Lok Sabha poll. In Arunachal Pradesh, which has 2 Lok Sabha seats and 60 seats in the Assembly, the BJP’s performance is applaudable. In the 2019 Assembly elections in Arunachal Pradesh, the BJP won 41 seats, improving its tally by 30 seats with respect to the previous 2014 Assembly elections. The BJP also won both Lok Sabha seats in the State and improved its tally by one seat with respect to the previous Lok Sabha election.

Manipur has a similar number of seats in the assembly and Lok Sabha as in Arunachal Pradesh. In the 2014 Lok Sabha poll in Manipur, the Congress party won both Lok Sabha seats, but it lost both seats. In the 2019 Lok Sabha poll, the BJP increased its tally from zero to 1 in 2019. In this Lok Sabha poll, the BJP may win both seats either on its own or with its ally. In Assembly elections in Manipur, the BJP won 32 seats in 2022. While in the 2012 Manipur Assembly elections, the BJP was not able to open its account. In 2017, the BJP won 21 seats and increased it to 32 in successive 2022 Assembly elections. This has further shown the BJP’s growing relevance in the NE region.

Tripura has 2 Lok Sabha and 60 assembly seats. The BJP, which did not open its account in the Tripura Assembly elections till 2013, won 36 seats in 2018 and got a clear majority on its own. In successive 2023 Assembly elections in Tripura, the BJP also maintained a majority on its own. Here, the BJP forged an alliance with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). In the Tripura Assembly, the Tipra Motha Party was the main Opposition party with 13 MLAs, but the party now has an alliance with the BJP-led NDA. The Communists or the Congress party is not even the main Opposition party in Tripura, where these were the main players. This shows growing acceptability among the masses not only in Tripura but in the entire NE region besides in the country and the Communists or the Congress party disillusionment with the masses. The BJP, which won one of the Lok Sabha seats in the 2014 Lok Sabha poll, won both Lok Sabha seats in 2019 with huge margins. Tripura was the first State where the BJP defeated the Communists. Taking lessons from Tripura the BJP strengthened itself in West Bengal and in Kerala too. In West Bengal, the BJP is the main Opposition and knocking for power. In Kerala, the BJP is also ascending the ladders of power.

Meghalaya has two Lok Sabha and 60 member Assembly. The BJP has much room to improve its performance in the State. Late P A Sangma was the foremost leader from the State who became the Speaker of Lok Sabha too. He was the person who challenged the authority of Sonia Gandhi within the party, along with Sharad Pawar and Tariq Anwar. After leaving the Congress party late, Sangma joined the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) and later formed his own party and completely eradicated the Congress party in Meghalaya. In Meghalaya, since the 1978 Assembly elections, the Congress party, which won between 20 to 30 seats till 2018, was relegated to 5 seats in the 2023 Assembly elections. This shows how swiftly the Congress party is losing its base in State and in country. Lone Congress MP from State Vincent Pala had lost even in Assembly elections. The Congress party has put its Shillong MP as a candidate for assembly elections from the Sutnga Saipung seat, and he lost the seat to the NPP candidate. Currently, the BJP is running a coalition Government in Meghalaya. It’s very likely that in the 2023 Lok Sabha polls, the NDA alliance will win both the Lok Sabha seats from Meghalaya, as the Congress already announced Vincent Pala as its candidate from the Shillong LS seat even though he lost the assembly poll. Another seat, Tura, is already with the NDA, and this time, the NDA is likely to win both seats.

Nagaland is also one of the States where the BJP has increased its base by leaps and bounds. In the 2018 Assembly elections in Nagaland, the BJP won 12 seats by increasing its tally by 11 seats. In the subsequent 2023 Nagaland Assembly elections, the BJP maintained its tally and increased its vote tally by 3.50 per cent. In Nagaland, the BJP is part of the NDA Government, as in Meghalaya. The Congress party has no representation in the Nagaland Assembly as in the NCT of Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal and Sikkim. The Nagaland Lok Sabha seat is with the NDA, and the Congress party won the seat in 1999 for the last time. The NDA is all likely to dominate the Lok Sabha and Assembly in Nagaland in the long run.

Mizoram has 40 member assembly and a lone Lok Sabha seat. The local outfit Mizo National Front (MNF) is running the Government and has representation in Lok Sabha too. The Congress party represented Mizoram Lok Sabha seat in 2009 and 2014 continuously but lost in 2019.

The North East region is free of Congress or I.N.D.I Alliance Governments. Once, the region was the stronghold of the Congress party, but like in other parts of the country, the party is losing its base day-by-day in this region, too.

The reasons for the downfall of the Congress and the escalation of the BJP are the development and people-oriented policies of the Modi-led NDA dispensation. Let’s go after the railway and NH projects in this region. We find that till April 1, 2023, 19 railway infrastructure projects in areas covering the North Eastern States, expanding over the length of 1909 km at the cost of Rs 81,941 crores, are at different stages of planning/approval/execution. Out of these, 482 km length has been commissioned on expenditure of Rs 37,713 cores has been incurred till March 2023. During 2014-23, 1618 km sections (377 km New Line, 972 km Gauge Conversion and 269 km Doubling), falling fully/ partly in North Eastern Region, have been commissioned at an average rate of 179.78 km per year, which is 170 per cent more than average annual commissioning during 2009-14 (66.6 km per year).

As far as road projects are concerned in North East region a total of 4950 km of National Highway Network has been developed by the Ministry of Road Transport and Highways during last nine years (i.e. 2014-2023) at a cost of Rs.41,459 crore in North Eastern Region.

The work of the Modi dispensation has improved the people’s lives in many ways, not only in terms of infrastructure but also in terms of education, health, and other parameters. The Modi dispensation revived and executed many important old projects. Considering the strategic importance of the North East region, the incumbent Government pays full heed to the region’s requirements.

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