The Russia-Ukraine war completed two years on 24 February 2024. When it began, most analysts were of the opinion that the war would be over in days or perhaps a few weeks. But months later, with no apparent outcome to the war, the world was resigned to a prolonged conflict, which has now entered its third year.
The multi-dimensional attacks launched by Russian forces on Ukraine at the start of the war were expected to lead to a swift surrender of Ukrainian forces. This was predicated on two assumptions, both of which proved to be false. The first was the belief that the Ukrainian military lacked the wherewithal to fight Russia and would soon crumble. Here, the Russian political and military leadership grossly underestimated the resilience of the Ukrainian armed forces and the will of its people to fight. The second was the unfounded hope that a regime change could be swiftly executed, bringing a quick end to the war. That did not happen. On the contrary, President Zelenskyy of Ukraine mobilised his country to face the Russian assault. As Western aid poured into Ukraine, the Russian offensive was halted. Today, after two years of war, it seems that the battle has been stalemated. Russia is in possession of large swathes of the eastern Donetsk and Luhansk regions, the battle line stretching all the way down to Krynky, north of Crimea—a frontline which is more than 1000 km long. Recently, the Russian forces have also taken the strategically important town of Avdiivka, which has been a battlefield town since 2014. It would be difficult for Ukraine to evict the Russians from the territories they have captured. But equally important is the fact that further Russian advances into Ukraine will also be fiercely resisted. In a sense, a stalemate in the war has been reached, and while there will be skirmishes and smaller battles waged across the front line, it is unlikely to result in any major change in the present ground positions of both sides. With Western aid to Ukraine dwindling, the Russian forces would appear to have the edge.
The initial operations conducted by the Russian military showed incompetence of a high order, both in higher-level leadership and in the conduct of ground operations. While President Putin was expecting his military to run over Ukraine in a matter of days, what ensued was a bloody fiasco, with the Russian forces suffering heavy casualties. The Russian forces led to believe that they would be given a hero’s welcome, were surprised when they faced stiff resistance—a scenario that they had not anticipated. The Russian Black Sea Fleet also took a severe hit with the sinking of the cruiser Moskva. Over a period of two years, as per some Western estimates, Russia has suffered over 315,000 dead and injured, with heavy losses also in tanks and artillery guns. Russia has also reportedly lost 20 warships, and the war is estimated to have cost Russia in excess of USD 210 billion.
Growing difficulties for Ukraine
Western sanctions on Russia have not had the desired effect. The Russian economy remains strong and robust, thanks in part to Russia redirecting its trade to Asian markets. With Russia’s mobilisation for war, its defence industry has been geared up to meet the requirements of ground troops. Military personnel who have been killed or injured have been replaced through conscription and recruitment, giving Russia the ability to fight a prolonged war, even if it stretches for another two years or more. The Russians have well-prepared defences on the frontline to protect the areas they have captured, which enabled them to blunt the counter-offensive launched by Ukraine in 2023. Even with Western aid, it would be difficult for Ukraine to evict the Russians from the territories they have captured. Without that aid, it would be well-nigh impossible. Eventually, if western aid does not flow into Ukraine, the Russians, would be able to force a peace on Ukraine on Russian terms. With adequate Western aid, Ukraine will be able to continue the resistance, prolonging the war, but would not be able to recover its lost territories.
Much of the population of the Donbas region—an area that includes much of the Ukrainian oblasti (provinces) of Donetsk and Luhansk and is notable for its sizeable coal reserves- is Russian-speaking. It was here that civil unrest against the Ukrainian government by pro-Russian forces grew into a war in 2014. In the present conflict, the area has been annexed by Russia and proclaimed as Donetsk and Luhansk “People’s Republics”. For the Ukrainian forces to recapture this area without support of the local population is a difficult ask and could be well-nigh impossible. The same can be said of the two other Ukrainian oblasts, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia, which, too, have a sizeable pro-Russian population. The civil population supporting Ukraine has largely fled to other parts of Ukraine or sought refuge in parts of Europe.
Russia’s Gain
What, then, would a potential end state of the war look like? A peace deal that comes about will most likely be on Russian terms. It is almost certain that after two years of war and the sacrifice which Russia has made in prosecuting the same, they will not vacate the territories they have captured. If western aid to Ukraine reduces or is stopped, a peace deal will come about sooner. If Western aid continues, Ukraine will be able to last out a few more years, but eventually, will capitulate. Russia will be looking towards a demilitarised Ukraine, which will not be a part of NATO. The West is getting tired of the war, and while funding for Ukraine may continue for 2024, in the interest of their own economies, they will be seeking to have this chapter closed.
The Russians, historically, have taken adverse situations in their stride. Now that the momentum of the war seems to be shifting in Moscow’s favour, they are unlikely to effect a compromise which will impact their future security interests. While there are enough dissidents in Russia who oppose the war, their numbers are not enough to cause a change in the mind of President Putin. Ukraine, on the other hand, is dependent on foreign aid to continue with its war-fighting effort. It may be in their best interest to accept their losses and move for a peace accord. If the war prolongs, Ukraine could well lose their Odessa province too, which would cut them off from the sea and make them a landlocked nation.
