Sonia Gandhi’s decision to go to the Rajya Sabha instead of contesting the Lok Sabha poll is a big political development. She did put health issues into this decision. She is the de facto head of the Congress Party. She is taking all the decisions of the party behind the veil. She has been leading the party since late 90s. She has also given much enthusiasm to the party cadres at different points of time. But in recent days the Congress party is going after one to another setbacks.
The Gandhi family’s main task in the 2024 Lok Sabha election is to remain in reckoning. In the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, Rahul Gandhi lost Amethi Lok Sabha seat and this time even Gandhi family is apprehensive of Rae Bareli Lok Sabha seat too. It is still unclear whether Rahul Gandhi will contest from Amethi in 2024 LS election. The family has an additional task choosing a seat for Priyanka Gandhi too. So Priyanka may contest from Rae Bareli seat this time.
Firstly, we consider the plight of the Congress party in Uttar Pradesh, where the Gandhi family is contesting elections. In 2022 Assembly elections, the Congress party got barely two seats. One seat is won by Aradhana Mishra, daughter of Pramod Tiwari. This seat is fiefdom of Pramod Tiwari. Pramod Tiwari has been winning the seat since 1980 without any break till 2012.
In 2014 in by-poll Pramod Tiwari’s daughter won the by-poll, and since then, she has won the seat. Other seat won by the Congress party is Pharenda assembly seat where the INC won the seat by margin of nearly 1200 votes against the BJP. In UP in 2022, the Congress party contested on 399 ACs and forfeited its deposit on 387 ACs. The party got 2.33 per cent of votes in 2022 Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh. In 2022 Assembly elections in UP the Congress party trailed by NOTA on 62 ACs.
If we go by the LS seats result of Amethi and Rae Bareli seats as per the assembly poll of 2022 then the INC came on poor 3rd position in Amethi and Rae Bareli much behind the BJP and SP. In Amethi the INC got 142952 votes and in Rae Bareli it got 140706 votes. In Amethi the INC lost its deposit on 4 ACs while in Rae Bareli, the INC lost deposit on 3 ACs. So the performance of the Gandhi family on these two seats in UP had put them in jittery. The family is no longer confident of winning these seats as in the past. Rahul Gandhi opted for Wayanad Lok Sabha seat in Kerala out of fear of losing Amethi and finally he lost the seat too.
Now Sonia Gandhi as Rajya Sabha MP she will campaign for Rahul Gandhi and even for Priyanka Vadhera. In 2019 LS poll the Congress party was in direct contest on only 4 seats in UP. Among these four seats, the Congress party won only Rae Bareli LS seat. Like Amethi in 2019 LS election the BJP is likely to plan.
The Congress party performance in Lok Sabha election is declining election by election. In 13 States and UTs the Congress party is not able to open its account in two consecutive elections of 2014 and 2019. In several legislatures the Congress party has no representation like NCT of Delhi, Andhra Pradesh, West Bengal, Sikkim and Nagaland.
The Congress party agony has increased manifold due to desertion of the loyal and longtime party members like Milind Deora, Ashok Chavan, Jyotiraditya Scindia and many others. Many of these leaders are in BJP and other parties and are enjoying good political innings.
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