Andhra Pradesh : Existential crisis or new lease of life

The Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh YS Jaganmohana Reddy (Jagan) is not known for his administrative capability but has certainly earned name for his political games and for acting against his rivals at an opportunistic time and hitting them where it hurts the most. It is that political mind of Jagan that hit the former Chief Minister of Andhra Pradesh and Telugu Desam Party (TDP) supremo Chandrababu Naidu, who got arrested and was remanded to judicial custody in the well-publicised Skill Development Corporation Scam where he is alleged to be the kingpin in the embezzlement of funds through fraudulent means to a tune of Rs 279 crores. Andhra Pradesh CID, Economic Offences Wing, claims to have unearthed evidence for the siphoning of funds causing “pecuniary loss to the Government exchequer through fraudulent means”. In the original FIR filed in 2021, Chandrababu Naidu is shown as Accused 37, but now the CID claims him to be the kingpin of the entire scam and then arrested him, though his status in the case remained unchanged as A 37.

The arrest of Naidu is a biggest political gamble which Jagan took before going to early Assembly elections. Chandrababu Naidu was in mass contact programme and attracting huge crowds to his political meetings. So to get him arrested, careful political thought and timing were needed. Jagan and his advisers must have thought that they have to go for the kill before the TDP campaign gets full traction. Moreover, Jagan’s assessment of Chandrababu Naidu’s political isolation is correct. The deafening silence of the national parties and also regional leaders against Chandrababu’s arrest, barring the West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee, confirmed the kind of low position into which Naidu has pushed himself. Even other leaders, who made muted protests, were against the way he was arrested and are not denying the alleged scams.

Busting Myths of Naidu’s Invincibility

The arrest of Chandrababu, under Sec 409 of IPC, busted many myths of his invincibility as he never got arrested in his five-decade-old political career, despite him being the MLA, Minister and Chief Minister. His political opponents including YS Rajasekhara Reddy couldn’t drag him to court despite Congress party’s intention to book him under some case or the other. The Congress filed petitions in the High Court of the State on Chandrababu Naidu’s corruption only to withdraw as it found it difficult to produce evidence against him. This gave the image of an untainted politician in the State to Chandrababu. The only time he was caught was in the Cash for Vote case where the current Telangana PCC chief Revant Reddy, then in TDP, was caught on camera offering bundles of currency on behalf of Chandrababu Naidu to a nominated MLA to cross vote in MLC elections. In the widely circulated video, Chandrababu was heard confirming his connivance in the cash offer. Despite such strong evidence, KCR Government has not pursued the case to its logical conclusion for unknown reasons and let off Chandrababu from arrest. The TDP supremo was also credited with the art of obtaining the stay orders from the courts whenever any case was filed against him.

The current remand of Chandrababu Naidu has to be seen in that backdrop. There is no doubt he was politically targeted by Jagan and his Government. The ruling YSRCP is under pressure to act as that party has brought out a book alleging over Rs 6 lakh crores corruption by Chandrababu during 2014 and 2018. Even after over four years’ rule, Jagan failed to probe and prove the involvement of corruption of Chandrababu and people started questioning the ability to take on Chandrababu. Jagan himself was behind bars for over 16 months without bail in money laundering cases filed by ED. A comparison of their administrations is being made by the people and Chandrababu is scoring on his image of a development-oriented leader.

More Corruption Cases

Despite these images, Chandrababu Naidu’s previous administration was not corruption-free. Even Prime Minister Narendra Modi accused Naidu of using the Polavaram project as an ATM for his own growth. Amit Shah, Union Home Minister, also criticised Naidu’s corrupt ways of ruling. Jagan used his own timing to book Chandrababu in a corruption case and send him to jail. This is the first of the series of corruption cases and many more are waiting. Another important case pertains to the kickbacks Chandrababu Naidu allegedly received from a Mumbai-based construction company that was involved in the construction of Amaravati, capital of Andhra Pradesh. The Income-Tax Department unearthed transfer of Rs 116 crores from the said company to Chandrababu Naidu’s close confidant’s account and issued a notice to him. The third case pertains to the land scam in the capital region. Even if Naidu gets out of jail on bail in the present case, the Jagan Government is ready to send him back to jail. The game plan of the Government is to keep Chandrababu in detention for the next three months and then go to early polls to recapture power.

Can he survive such a political assault? As things stand it will be difficult for him as he stood isolated at a critical time of his political career. His image of a selfish politician where he ‘takes help but not reciprocates’ is understood by all parties. His somersault from NDA to UPA in 2018 Karnataka elections and his endorsement of Rahul Gandhi for PM post against Modi in 2019 Lok Sabha elections and post-defeat in the State his desperation to reach to BJP leadership confirms his political weakness.

In his manipulative political style, Chandrababu destroyed his own party structure by anointing his own son Lokesh as number two in the party. Lokesh is known as Andhra Pappu (Rahul Gandhi). TDP is the family party now, with senior leaders, aged and unwilling to take political battle seeking their own safety. The tactics of using police to foist cases used by Jagan has stymied the TDP cadre. The lukewarm protest by TDP over the arrest of their supremo Chandrababu is a case in point.