Decoding opposition unity and cracks in it

It is easy to see the gathering of 38 political parties in the national capital – endorsing the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi for the 2024 general election – as a response to 26 parties finally making to Bengaluru to rebrand themselves as a new Opposition front, the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, or I.N.D.I.A.

However, the motivation and drive for the two fronts are different and will remain so till the parliamentary face-off next year.

The Opposition exercise, which is now a more Congress-driven one, is a leap of faith and hope of stitching together a mandate against several odds on the basis of a common narrative.

The reasoning is that none of the parties, the Congress included, can strive to achieve such a mandate on their own. So it does not mind the company of such recalcitrant political parties like the Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) – who have chosen to endorse the new banner more out of fear of losing space in the common vote bank.

BJP’s PARTNERS

On the other hand, the expansion of the 25-year-old National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is intended to enlarge the footprint of the BJP to nooks and corners of the country, counting on Modi’s leadership and charisma across all sections.

Also, Modi has never minced words in stating what his expectations are from the 2024 elections. He has insisted that a third mandate for the BJP should be much larger in size than the first mandate in 2014 and  then in 2019.

“NDA is totally different… for us the alliance is not a compulsion, but a means of strength… NDA brought stability, and helped take timeless decisions. This is why India trusts the NDA… and people in foreign countries also know who holds the popular mandate.”
— Prime Minister Narendra Modi at NDA meet

A mandate larger than the previous mandates in terms of parliamentary seats would be to reinforce the big political message that the people of India are picking the BJP as their first choice and not out of compulsion. Also, they endorse Modi’s leadership and actions of his government to chart a new course of growth for India.

More importantly, as outlined by Modi, the NDA is not structured on a negative agenda. On the other hand, the I.N.D.I.A. is targeted at Modi personally and the BJP politically, because its patrons realise that unless they are “united” in their objective, they cannot even hope for any forward movement.

“They are using autonomous bodies such as CBI and ED against opposition leaders and their workers” – Mallikarjun Kharge, Congress president

Modi does not have to assert to show that the leadership of the NDA is vested with himself or the BJP. At the same time, he is determined to show that his strength is not limited to his own party. The NDA has seen the induction of several parties in recent months, particularly in Maharashtra. Two regional parties, the Nationalist Congress Party and the Shiv Sena, have joined hands with the BJP ahead of 2024.

In Uttar Pradesh, Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Suheldev Bhartiya Samaj Party is back, putting behind the factors that had led to its exit ahead of the 2022 state election. Both factions of the Lok Janshakti Party are also firmly seated on the NDA table in Bihar.

REGIONAL COMPULSIONS

The five southern states and Puducherry send 130 MPs to the Lok Sabha. Already, both the BJP and the AIADMK realise that their best interests are served in Tamil Nadu by jointly contesting the Lok Sabha polls under the banner of the NDA, with the latter playing a bigger role.

But one must note that the BJP is not looking at these alignments as very vital for its return to power in 2024. Rather, these parties could add to its strength.

Those parties that did not join (or were not invited) to the Opposition conclave in Patna and Bengaluru are also scripting their own course.

There are good reasons for the Janata Dal (Secular) in Karnataka and the Telugu Desam Party led by N. Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh to avoid any Congress-inspired conclave. They would rather see merit in aligning with the BJP sooner or later.

By keeping her options open, Bahujan Samaj Party leader Mayawati too is keeping her cards ready for a future alignment. She has made it clear that she is not enamoured by the idea of I.N.D.I.A. She is always against the Congress even as she opposes the BJP.

Similarly, despite his rivalry with the BJP, Odisha Chief Minister and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) leader Naveen Patnaik too has steered a course for his party for so many years successfully. He enjoys a rapport with Modi. He has been in power for more than two decades. It is not an exaggeration to say that he is seen by the BJP as the most trusted political ally outside the NDA.

Telangana CM and Bharat Rashtra Samiti leader K Chandrasekhar Rao (KCR) was not invited to Bengaluru. He has realised the futility of getting opposition heads together against the BJP after his efforts did not bear fruits last year. As he faces the assembly polls, KCR has concluded that the Congress is his principal rival. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi had even dubbed him the BJP’s “B team.”

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y S Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSRCP is always cordial with the Centre though he faces the BJP as one of the main opposition parties in his state. Jagan’s angst is, however, still directed towards the Congress, which he quit after it refused to give him the CM post after the death of his father and former Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Y S Rajashekara Reddy.

TRUST DEFICIT

In contrast, the goings-on in the opposition camp, despite attempted bonhomie in Bengaluru, show that there is deficit of mutual trust. Janata Dal (United) leader and Bihar Chief Minister Nitish Kumar has realised that the Congress has taken full charge of the unity exercise and his role as an initiator may have come to an end. Similarly, Rashtriya Janata Dal chief Lalu Prasad Yadav realises that the Congress will have an upper hand.

Earlier, Bengal Congress chief Adhir Ranjan Chowdhury had labelled Mamata Banerjee as a dictator and TMC workers as goons over the violence in the state panchayat elections. He is upset that the Congress leadership has worked on a deal with Mamata, looking askance at the ground realities in Bengal. The Left’s dilemma and compulsions to stand alongside Mamata are also apparent even while ruling out any alliance with the TMC in West Bengal.

Despite attempted bonhomie in Bengaluru, the deficit of mutual trust is evident in the opposition camp

Some Congress leaders may conclude that Atal Vajpayee Vajpayee’s NDA between 1998 and 2004 was also an alliance of convenience to keep the Congress out of power. But the contradictions that stare the I.N.D.I.A in the face are deeper than what the BJP faced between 1998 and 2004.

The differences among the opposition leaders reportedly over accepting Rahul Gandhi’s new name of I.N.D.I.A for the alliance are only a tip of a huge iceberg. It is clear that the Opposition parties cannot agree on a leadership’s face, have a national level seat adjustment formula or even an agenda of governance that can go beyond basic welfarism.

The NDA does not have similar pangs, having sustained itself through difficult years of the BJP before it emerged with Modi as the fulcrum of the ruling combination now.