During the G7 meet in Tokyo last month, US President Joe Biden personally came up to Prime Minister Modi, and while shaking hand with him, stated that he was keen to get an autograph from the Indian Prime Minister given his ability to deal with huge crowds, and the given the number of high-profile American citizens keen to meet PM Modi during his visit, later this month to US.
In the recent past, on more than one occasion, in key summits, President Biden had personally walked up to Prime Minister Modi to greet him, a reflection of not just the immense popularity of Prime Minister Modi in the global arena, but also a vindication of the growing stature of India among the global economic powerhouses of the world, and especially those from Global North. And there are reasons for that too.
Reason Behind Washington’s Renewed Warming up to India
Washington’s admiration for PM Modi is not just for his personal camaraderie with heads of states of major countries of the world, but also for the manner in which under the leadership of PM Modi, India has successfully managed and steered through the most tumultuous phases of the Covid pandemic. It was a phase when India not only successfully administered more than 220 crores of homemade covid vaccines to more than 100 crore eligible citizens, but also successfully implemented difficult economic reforms to make the Indian economy more resilient.
The net result is that at a time when most of the economies, from major to marginalised, are going through extreme challenges of inflation, recession and balance of payment crisis, India has not only emerged as the fifth largest economy of the world, with a GDP of around $3.75 trillion, but is also one which has posted record exports of $770 billion for 2022-23, and has continued to maintain an impressive foreign exchange reserve in excess of $550 billion, for the most of the last two years, with present figures being around $590 billion. So much so that IMF has termed India as a, ‘bright spot on this otherwise dark horizon’.
Also, during the last two years, India not only managed its own challenges but also helped others to overcome theirs’. When a massive earthquake struck Turkey, India went ahead as a first respondent to in spite of major differences India has with Turkey on various issues. When Sri Lanka was facing a disastrous financial crisis last year, India sent aid worth $4 billion when no one else was coming forward to support Sri Lanka. When developed countries were accused of hoarding Covid vaccines, India provided vaccines to more than 95 odd countries.
Against this backdrop, India’s emergence as a dependable and a mature nation goes without doubt. Therefore, it is not surprising that many in the West have shown deep interest in deepening their relationship with India through a fundamentally new paradigm, given the fact that India, apart from the reasons listed above is making immense progress in creation of resilient supply chains to deal with future global challenges, and reduce their potential impact on the domestic economy. It is also not surprising that if there is any country in Asia which can eventually counter China, in the immediate to long term perspective, then it invariably is India.
PM Modi’s US Visit: Much Anticipated
During the visit of PM Modi to US later this month, it is expected that there would be an unprecedented level of exchanges that he would be having with US lawmakers and CEOs of major US companies, apart from the star attraction of PM Modi’s address to US Congress slated for 23rd June.
The euphoria surrounding PM Modi’s visit to US also emanates from the fact that there are major areas of convergence between India and US, given that both are democracies, coupled with high levels of both people to people, and business to business connect. Also, the Indian diaspora in US is not just extremely successful economically but have considerable clout as a community as well. Therefore, it is all but natural that any visit of an Indian Prime Minister definitely creates some buzz at least in the diplomatic and economic circle. But PM Modi has taken it to an altogether new height in the last few years. It is because of this primarily that given the deluge of high-profile citizens who want to meet PM Modi during his visit, President Biden had to acknowledge that he is indeed popular. However, there are caveats.
The Caveats of Indo-US Relationship: Clear No to NATO
It is to be remembered, that in spite of major areas of convergence between India and US, there are areas of differences as well. Therefore, camaraderie aside, the visit would also mean some hard negotiations would take place between both sides.
While defence cooperation between the two sides is expected to be a major area of engagement during the state visit of PM Modi to US, India has made it very clear that defence cooperation between the two countries cannot happen when strings remain attached. Early this month, A US Congressional Committee had proposed to include India in a ‘NATO Plus’ kind of an arrangement. NATO Plus is an extension of NATO that includes New Zealand, South Korea, Israel, Australia and Japan.
A few days later, India’s Minister for External Affairs, Dr. S Jaishankar, rejected the proposal on behalf of India by stating, ‘NATO template doesn’t apply to India’. Even as US has tried hard to wean India away from Russia by offering carrots of a NATO kind of membership which, US had imagined India would latch on, the latter, i.e. India, even while deepening its relationship with US, has fiercely guarded its strategic autonomy and independent foreign policy, on which she does not allow anyone to impinge upon. On economic front, India has consistently refused to open its dairy and chicken market to exports from US, given the innumerable number of people in India employed in these industries.
How India’s Independent Foreign Policy Helped India
It is primarily India’s independence of foreign policy that allowed India defy sanctions on Russia by US to not just buy S-400 air defence system, and other major weapon systems, from Russia even when CAATSA ( Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) sanctions were imposed on Russia by US, but also went ahead to purchase Russian oil at deep discounts from Russia (in rupee currency), when US had already imposed fresh and additional sanctions on Russia after the beginning of the Ukraine-Russia war.
Had India not continued to purchase Russian commodities, it would have perhaps faced similar economic challenges that most of European countries, even US, find themselves in, due to their sanctions on Russia, and consequently suffering from massive rise in global price of critical commodities, including energy. It resulted in unprecedented inflationary pressures on their economies, and which now is giving shape to recession.
Defence Cooperation May Increase but ‘Make in India’ to Remain the Core
While it is for sure that in areas artificial intelligence, semiconductors, aerospace, maritime and overall defence domain, there would be major enhancement of cooperation, along with India potentially agreeing to procure for GE F-414 aero engines and a certain number of Predator drones, the core thrust of Modi Government’s deepening of engagement would still remain Atmanirbhar Bharat, or ‘Make in India’, and independence of foreign policy.
Modi Government would not just push for moving production facilities to India, from US, for major defence deals such as that of GE F414, to power its Tejas MK2A and AMCA, but would also make ‘Transfer of Technology’ (ToT) a key vector for deepening defence cooperation. India would no more just be a mere importer. Also, India has always been extremely apprehensive about procuring offensive weapon systems from US given how US insists on signing of End User Monitoring Agreement (EUMA), through which it keeps an oversight on where weapons of US origin are used by clients. India has always been vehemently against EUMA.
For a nation with demand, democracy and demography on her side, coupled with decisive leadership and an economy that would breach the $5 trillion mark in next few years, US would have to appreciate the fact India may not take the same path of alignment with US that has traditionally been taken by Western European nations, and neither for the sake of her friendship with US, India would abandon its time-tested friendship with Russia. She values her friendship with both Russia and the West, and that should be treated as an asset. It is not for nothing that India, for her integrity, cultural ethos, righteousness, and a deep sense of civilisational pride has emerged as the voice of the voiceless Global South.
The sooner US realises it, the better it is. Indo-US bonhomie is set to enhance, but perhaps with a caveat and keeping an arm’s length distance on contentious issues.
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