New Delhi: It is fashionable among journalists and armed-chair election experts to link the outcome of Karnataka and other State polls to the battle of general elections for Lok Sabha and the Government in the centre. But it is simply a myth and, at best, a media curry, the fact speaks otherwise.
The last three Lok Sabha elections – 2019, 2014 and 2009 proved the ivory tower experts wrong, but nevertheless, the tom tomming about such expertise goes on unabated.
Let’s do the fact-check. In 2013, the BJP lost Karnataka polls badly, winning merely 40 seats, and the vote share declined to 19.89 per cent votes. The split in the saffron party and B S Yeddyurappa floating his own party did the damage. The Congress bounced back with 36.59 per cent votes and 122 seats, giving the then-Manmohan Singh Government a fresh lease of life but in 2014 Lok Sabha polls – the Congress tally had nosedived to all-time low 44, and the grand old party even failed to get the recognition of an Opposition party in Lok Sabha.
The BJP seats tally, in contrast, jumped to 282, making an increase of 166 seats, and the Congress had lost 162 seats from its previous 2009 polls.
In other State polls in 2013 – Madhya Pradesh, the BJP returned to power with a thumping victory. In Rajasthan, too, Vasundhara Raje led the saffron camp to win as many as 165 seats and in Chhattisgarh, Raman Singh had also returned to power.
In 2008, the BJP created history, winning 110 seats in Karnataka, and the vote share was 33.86 per cent. The Congress was ousted with 80 seats and 34.76 per cent votes in its kitty; but in 2009 Lok Sabha polls, it was Congress which crossed the 200 mark.
But in Karnataka, the BJP retained its hold, winning 19 seats out of 28, and the Congress could win only six.
In 2018, in Karnataka polls, the BJP did well to emerge as the single largest party winning 104 seats, and the vote share was 36.22; the Congress could win 78 seats and 38.04 per cent votes. But in the 2019 Lok Sabha polls, the saffron party had managed to win 25 seats.
Notably, the BJP lost power in three States of Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan in 2018. But in 2019 parliamentary polls, the saffron party crossed the magical 300 mark winning 303 seats, and the Congress could win 52 — merely eight more than its 44 tally of 2014.
The Congress yet again missed the status of LoP in Lok Sabha.
In 2019 polls in Chhattisgarh – within weeks, it lost power to Congress, the BJP swept the parliamentary polls again, winning 9 out of 10 seats. In 2014, the BJP won all ten seats. Similarly, in Rajasthan, the ‘Modi magic’ had its say, and the BJP won 24 out of 25 seats, and one seat went to Rashtriya Loktantrik Party, also a NDA constituent. The Congress tally was zero – a repeat of its 2014 performance in Rajasthan.
In Madhya Pradesh, the BJP had lost the power to Kamal Nath-led Congress in December 2018; but when it came to Lok Sabha polls, the Lotus party improved its 2014 performance and won one seat more — that is 28 as against 27 in 2014.
The moral of the story is that Indian voters are real masters, and they more often fail the poll experts and even so-called poll managers among the netas. In 2004 the BJP lost the parliamentary polls. But just a few months back, the Vajpayee-led BJP had formed Government in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh.
Now into the electioneering season in Karnataka, both the camps, the BJP and the Congress, are giving their best, and these are on expected lines.
Of course, for the BJP and its leadership, all elections are important, and due weightage is given to all the States – irrespective of whether it is in power or what’s the size of the States.
For Congress, there is a different strategy than it applied in Gujarat only a few months back.
In Gujarat, the central leaders had left the entire poll battle to the State leadership, and the trio of Mallikarjun Kharge, Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka had stayed away. But in Karnataka, all three have made themselves busy. To top it, former Chief Minister Siddaramaiah and State Chief D K Shivakumar are also sweating it out at the local level.
Interestingly, among the BJP supporters, the so-called ‘Hindutva slant’ is a clear issue everyone is talking about. And no one goes “apologetic” about it. “People are proud of Hindutva. The Hindus really think under Congress and Chief Minister Siddaramaiah, the Christians and Muslims were always favoured. Tipu Sultan was glorified. So, it is payback time, we Hindus ought to stay united and vote for a strong centre under PM Narendra Modi and for the Double engine to boost growth,” says Sushil Gurunath in Hubli, a self-declared Modi fan.
