Doval-Putin Meet: What is cooking?

NSA Ajit Doval was in Moscow for a meeting of regional security heads to discuss the Afghanistan situation. The next morning, he was called for a rare one-on-one meeting with Putin. There is of course no word on what transpired in this meeting, but one thing is crystal clear – the issue at hand was too important/sensitive to be discussed through regular diplomatic channels, or even over the phone.

Doval was Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s messenger, and Putin was all ears. No doubt, the meeting said a lot about New Delhi-Moscow relations.

As news of the meeting came out, Russian media flashed that President Putin ‘broke protocol to meet Indian NSA Doval’.

Though the Afghan issue is important for both Russia and India, it is unlikely to have been the topic for this unexpected meet. India’s engagement with Moscow has many dimensions in the present context, the most significant being – bilateral trade in the face of US pressures, India’s emphasis on peace in the backdrop of Russia-Ukraine war, and the geo-political positioning of Russia vis-à-vis China.

WILL INDIA MEDIATE?

It is significant that Doval’s solo audience with Putin came just after the NSA’s visits to Washington and London, which are leading the Western coalition to support Ukraine in the conflict that began a year ago. This has fuelled expectations that India may play a vital mediatory role in peace talks between Ukraine and Russia. Interestingly, the world is also seeing India in that role now.

Over the past year, India has appealed multiple times for an end to the Russia-Ukraine war. During a meeting with Putin on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in September last year, Modi had famously said: “today’s era is not an era of war”.

“India’s voice is heard strongly in Moscow.” These are the words of German Foreign and Security Policy Advisor Jens Plötner when he was asked about India’s possible role as a mediator in resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict. “The Indian angle is important,” he said, acknowledging India’s potential involvement. Plotner met Doval in Delhi on 14 February, ahead of German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s visit to India later this month.

Interestingly, soon after the Putin-Doval meet, White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said that the US would welcome any effort that could lead to ending hostilities in Ukraine. When asked if there is still time for Prime Minister Narendra Modi to stop the war or convince President Vladimir Putin, Kirby said, “I think there’s still time for Putin to stop the war. I think there’s still time for it. I will let PM (PM Modi) speak to whatever efforts he’s willing to undertake. The US would welcome any effort that could lead to an end of hostilities in Ukraine”.

India has managed to walk a tortuous tightrope in terms of relations with the West (especially the US) and Russia since the war started, and has successfully ensured that India’s interests are not compromised at any stage. This has not only elevated India’s stature in international politics, but has virtually forced the world to see India in a bargaining position – not just about her own interests but also in the context of universal welfare. India’s message of Vasudhaiva kutumbakam is going across loud and clear!

However, it remains to be seen which side of the war theatre is actually interested in cessation of hostilities. Each warring nation is fighting with the belief that it is in a winning position. Ukraine may be small player, but the powers that are not just backing it, but actively egging it on from day one, are unlikely to back down easily. The economics of a war is another matter altogether.

RUSSIA AND CHINA

No doubt building strong relations with Russia is important from the viewpoint of trade and economy, but there is another crucial angle – Moscow’s ‘friendship’ with Beijing.

In February 2022, Putin and his Chinese counterpart President Xi Jinping signed a joint statement stating that the relationship between their countries has “no limits” and that there are “no forbidden areas of cooperation”. This statement came just a few days before Russia invaded Ukraine.

NSA Doval’s visit to the US and UK just before his rare meeting with Putin has heightened hopes that India could be looking to play a crucial role in brokering peace between Russia and Ukraine

Xi and Putin are known to have a strong personal relationship – media reports indicate they have met over 40 times since 2012.

Experts point out that it’s actually a “marriage of inconvenience” based on a common shared suspicion of Western powers and geographic factors.

Their ties may be just pragmatic, but the fact remains that India will need to have Russia on its side in the event of escalation of tensions with China. China has always looked at India as its adversary and has returned all gestures of friendship with a stab in the back.  In this context, strategic partnerships with Russia take on an added significance.

NATIONAL INTEREST

India, like other nations, was caught between a rock and hard place when the Russia-Ukraine war escalated – especially on the issue of oil imports. Faced with US sanctions on the one hand and the need to keep inflation under control on the other, the Modi Government proved it was clear about its priorities. No one was left with any doubt that Modi’s focus was only ‘national interest’ – and it was an argument no one could dispute. The US realised it was dealing with a government that could not be pressurised to work against its own interests, and toned down its belligerence.

India is said to be importing as much as 1.3 million barrels of oil per day now. And we’re not just buying large quantities of Russian crude, a large part of it is being refined and re-exported to Europe.

This has not stopped India from inking big deals with the West either. The recent high-profile order for 470 new aircraft – 250 from Airbus and 220 from Boeing – for Air India is a case in point. Interestingly, three premiers were present at the virtual event to announce this deal – Prime Minister Narendra Modi, US President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron. In a tweet, Modi termed this event as the “launch of an important partnership”. After all, three major economies of the world stand to benefit from this deal.

In an era when even trade deals become geo-political strategies, Putin and Doval were definitely discussing something big. At what point is the India-Russia strategic relationship? Only the future can tell.