China will continue its multi domain Warfare (MDW)(Combination of hybrid war, grey zone War and unrestricted War) in 2023. No diplomatic warnings is likely to have any effect on the Chinese activities. Chinese only understand the language of force as used against them in Galwan and at Yangtse, where they were beaten up badly. The only way to deter them is to hit back in each of the domains where they carry out inimical activities against India.
Today nearly 70 per cent Shanghai Citizens are in hospitasl due to Carona. The economic capital is closing down, the Chinese economy is in serious trouble. Because Xi Jinping was too proud to accept foreign / Indian vaccine. They only managed to delay the Corona by their zero covid policy.
This human disaster and slowing down of economy, however will not stop China’s multi-domain war against India.
The next Yangtse incidence will take place in one or more of the multi domains, which China wages war against India. In addition to the land, air and sea, wars will be waged in information, psychological, space , cyber and all possible domains.
The Chinese aim to achieve “complete dominance” through MDW so that India “loses the will and ability to resist” and signs the border agreement as required by them. It will at least slow down India’s economy and India will not be able to emerge as rival to China in Asia. For China, MDW can be defined as conventional and/or non-conventional war carried out by state, non-state(criminal gangs) or state sponsored actors(Pakistan) using hard and soft power during conflict/ peace, by day or night. These operations will be overt or covert.
What is more important is that each of these domains where China carries out inimical activities is identified and still more important is to work out a methodology or counter against these Chinese warlike activities.
Biological Warfare And Biological Terrorism
The Chinese virus, called by many as Corona or covid-19 has killed more than 8,00,000 Indians. More mutations of this biological weapon are expected.
However this Frankenstein monster created by China now has started to infect China itself. The losses due to new infections are expected to be very heavy and it will definitely take the Chinese economy into negative growth.
While we need to protect ourselves against the new viruses, this also offers a great opportunity for providing vaccines and medicines to the whole world to become pharmacy of the world.
Salami Slicing on Indo China Border
China will attempt to alter the status of the border incrementally in its favour by salami slicing. It will do it in areas which further its long term claims. China will exploit its hold over Pakistan, Nepal, Bhutan, Myanmar, and Bangladesh to target India on the border and in all domains.
India has to increase surveillance on the Indo China border further by use of satellites, drones, radars and other electronic devices. The quick reaction capability to respond to Chinese intrusion will check- mate the Chinese.
However is it possible to carry out own Salami slicing operations in areas where we hold terrain advantage?
Electronic Surveillance from Oceans, Military Bases
Chinese spy ships with electronic warfare capability will sail and moniter with Indian space and maritime activity. China will carry out surveillance from bases in Sri Lanka (Hambantota), Pakistan (Gwadar), Myanmar (Kyaukpyu) and many more places.
We have to develop electronic counter measures as a response to counter and jam Chinese electronic surveillance when snooping on us.
Grey Zone Air Warfare
PLAAF and its rocket force will be used to intimidate India psychologically through well publicised firings and exercises close to the border. There were reports that few Chinese aircraft flew close to the line of actual control. However China may not carry out air intrusions as it is doing in case of Taiwan. China will increase the pace of building infrastructure (Airfields, advanced landing grounds, helicopters)along the LAC .
We also have to build up our infrastructure with respect to air war like more airfields, advance landing Grounds, helipads and drone bases to checkmate the Chinese.
Offensive Chinese Cyber war
The cyberspace domain is being exploited by China as Indians continue buying Chinese communication equipment. The cheap Chinese mobiles will be a continual drain of Indian big data to feed Chinese systems and predict Indian strong and weak points.
The AIIMS hack, attack on Mumbai electric grid are few examples of Chinese cyber offensive capabilities. We have to stop buying Chinese equipment.
China will exploit this vulnerability increasingly to paralyse our various national grids.The electronic spectrum will be used for intelligence acquisition as also to control our decision making capacities.
Improving cyber defense’s is an obvious answer but we need to show capabilities of carrying out surgical strikes on the Chinese cyber infrastructure so that they will desist from attacking our infrastructure.
Grey Zone Space War, Nuclear War
Continuous space based monitoring of all activity in the IOR and Indian main land will only increase. The presence of the Yuan Wang class of surveillance vessels which can communicate and control Chinese satellites is a pointer. Space will be used for Chinese UAV operations.
China could have up to 700 deliverable nuclear warheads by 2027 and 1,000 by 2030 as per USA estimates. It is also looking to nuclearize its hypersonic systems. The nuclear weapons along with Pakistani nuclear weapons will be used for blackmailing India and waging psychological war.
Countering space war and gray zone nuclear war are technology intensive. We have to take help from technology superpowers like the USA ,Taiwan, Japan and Europe to build up our defense.
Countering Information warfare/ Dis-information Warfare/ Psychological Warfare/ Perception management / Influence Operations/Public opinion
China tries to shape domestic and international public opinion through media, military experts, and political parties.Chinese narratives are being built through pliant Indian politicians, media, and officials in India. Think tanks, academic institutions, workers unions, industry, and even government is being penetrated to influence thought and decision.
It makes some believe that the Chinese are ‘Ten Feet Tall’. Their videos of their firing exercises, news of scientific discoveries and new weapon systems etc are part of this effort. China will also attempt to stroke agitations, use criminal syndicates, fuel insurgencies and mount covert operations. The communist party propaganda machinery is an important tool.
China will continuously exploit Indian plurality and fissures in the political and bureaucratic field. China will ensure that decisions that favour’s China is taken in India. It will also endeavor to shape international opinion to show India in poor light.
We need to counter Chinese information and psychological war not only in India but in foreign medias, in Europe and America. We also need to develop capability to infiltrate into Chinese print, social and electronic media to counter their narrative warfare.
Countering Chinese Legal Warfare
China is busy building a narrative through research and publications about the pre Buddhist kingdom to establish its legality on Tibet. China has also enacted border laws and built villages along the LAC to establish its legal status and actions along the LAC.
China has used Indian laws to stop Vedanta industries from producing copper in Tamil nadu on the pretext of environmental damages. Vedanta was stopped and thereafter India started importing copper from China. It has used liberal Indian law system to get decisions in its favour, by using some NGOs to file cases in the Indian court.
However China does not respect or follow laws of the world like “United Nations convention on law of the sea” and claims that the entire South China sea belongs to China.
Not only should we counter Chinese legal Warfare in India but also build up alliances of various countries and fight legal war together at International Court of Justice.
To conclude ramping up border infrastructure, closer strategic ties with the West and a growing economy have helped India stare down China. Moscow’s failed adventurism in Ukraine has shown Beijing’s influence over world is overhyped but China has immense capability to trouble India. We therefore need to develop capabilities to counter China in all domains.
In the next part we will cover the Energy, Economy, Diplomacy and Politics and many other domains.
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