The second Parliamentary and Provincial Assembly (PA) elections of Nepal were held on November 20, 2022. The elections largely remained peaceful and voter turnout was relatively lower (61 per cent) than in the 2017 elections. Nepal has a total of 116 registered political parties and reregistration is required again for participating before any elections. Over 61 political parties and several independent candidates contestedthis time for 275 Parliamentary seats and 550 seats for seven Pas this time. As per the constitutional provision, the elections were conducted under both the first past the postsystem (FPTP) (165 seats) and the proportional representation (PR) system (110) seats. Given the multicultural, multi-ethnic, multi-caste society, intra-regional feeling between hills and the Terai (the southern plains of Nepal), and the previous performance track records of the political parties, the major political parties forged pre-poll alliances, which were led by the Nepali Congress (NC) and the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist–Leninist) also known as CPN-UML. These alliances were not based on any ideology or political commitments. Although the Chief Elections Commission has declared that the election results would be announced by December 08, the early trend indicates that the NC-led alliance could secure a majority in the Parliament.
Despite that,political analysts in Nepal are worried about political stability in the next five years due to two emerging challenges in the postelections period. First, the NC-led alliance has to resolve many intra-party and intra-alliance political issues including tenure-based Prime Minister, and other constitutional bodies like provincial Chief Ministers, and Governor Positions, before the formation of the Government. The alliance has over half a dozen claimants for the Prime Minister positions. A lack of consensus on any of these issues could bring a premature end to the coalition government at any point in time. Second, the overall performance of the second alliance led by the CPN-UML has been impressive and that retains the capability to form the Government as well. Comparatively and individually, the CPN-UML performance has improved from the May 2022 local body elections than the NC and there are only a few seat differences between them this time.
New Trends
These elections have been some extent different from the previous elections. The below-mentioned table indicates that there has been a disenchantment against the old political parties and their leadership due to their failure to address the development aspiration of the people, which they thought would be fulfilled under the new constitution. Because, earlier, the top political leaders had blamed the Monarchical system for under development in Nepal. Apart from a fractured verdict, the elections witnessed several new trends in Nepali politics. First, there has substantial shift in public support, especially the youngervoters, in favour of new political parties like the Rastriya Swatantra Party (RSP), the Janmat Paty (JP), and the Nagrik Unmukti Patry (NUP). And surprisingly, all these three political parties have scored above three percent of the total PR votes and secured the status as the National Party. Apart from public frustration, the success behind these three parties has been different. For example, the RSP received the maximum votes from, NGO workers, the younger (newly registered) voters and parents and relatives of the Nepalis living abroad. Similarly, the JP, which has been a Terai/Madhesi based political party, received maximum public support due to the failure of the two old Madhesi Parties-the Loktantrik Samajwadi Party (LSP) and Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP)- putting personal cause ahead of than the Madhesi interests. These parties were also involved in corruption, nepotism, and the JSP had joined hands with the CPN-UML, which was strongly opposed to addressing the Madhsi demands constitutionally in 2015. The NUP, again a regional party, received maximum votes from the Truaru community, which is the most oppressive, marginalised, and exploited community in Nepal. Tharu’s demands are consistently ignored by the national and regional level political parties. The NUP is mandated to highlight Tharuplights both in Parliament and outside.
Second, ideology played a lesser role both while forming alliances and registration of the new political parties and also while voting for the candidates. For instance, the NC and the Maoists were ideologically opposed to each other. While the NC was in favour of continuing parliamentary democracy, the Maoists appealed to the people to vote for a Republican system. Similarly, the CPN-UML and the Rastriya Prajatantra Party (RPP) have ideological differences. While the RPP manifesto mentioned the revival of Monarchy and Hindu Rastra, the CPN-UML has been in favour of the Republican system and secularism. Most importantly, the Janata Samajwadi Party (JSP) joined the CPN-UML led alliance while former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli was critical of Madhesiissues and especially Upendra Yadav’s support toPushp Kamal Dahal alias Prachanda, Chairman of the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists Centre) (CPN-MC), who again tried to unseat Oli from the Government in 2020-2021. Apart from this, many newly formed non-ideological parties performed better in these elections than the ideological parties like the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoists Center) and the RPP. The Maoists were reduced to less than 40 seats in comparison to the 2017 elections.
Third, apart from the mandate against the old and ideological parties, a large number of old leaders were also dusted this time. From the CPN-UML side around 25 prominent leaders, who were close aid of former Prime Minister Oli, including Iswar Pokharel (vice-chairman of the party), Shankar Pokharel (general secretary of the party), Pradeep Gyawali, were rejected by the people. On the NC side, around 20 leaders close to Prime Minister Deuba lost the elections. Some of the prominent Madhesi leaders like Upendra Yadav, Rajendra Mahato, Hridesh Tripathi, Anill Jha, and Laxman Lal Karna also lost elections. Implications Political instability has been chronic in Nepal’s political history ever since it adopted multiparty democracy in 1990. Since then Nepal has seen 27 Prime Ministers, which means that on average, it has had one Prime Minister per year (as on December 2, 2022).
In the post-Constitution period, since 2015, there has not been a major improvement in the political situation in Nepal. In the last seven years, Nepal has seen five Prime Ministers (October 2015-December 2022) and there have been two attempts to dissolve the House of Representatives (HoR) pre-maturely which has led to the loss of popular confidence in the new political system. The leaders of Nepal have failed miserably in providing political direction to the institutions for the effective implementation of policies.
Once again, although these new trends signified new changes in Nepal, it has failed to guarantee political stability in Nepal in the next five years. Since the new government would be formed based on opportunistic alliances, there are high possibilities of Government changes or possibilities for a mid-term elections in Nepal. This would aggravate the already fragile economic situation of Nepal, which is under stress due to COVID-19 effects and the Ukraine crisis. Besides that, a new government with multiple ideological blending and separate commitments to the people in their manifestos could be prone to external powers’ influence.
Scenarios
Given this background, three scenarios will unfold in the future. First, the formation of an NC-led Government after intense debate and negotiations. The CPN-MC and the CPN-US may continue with the government due lack of alternatives at this moment. Meanwhile, the NC top leaders and Prachanda would try to get the support of smaller, regional, and non-ideological parties to enhance their bargaining power against each other. Internal power tussle will continue along with the government formation.
Second, the formation of the left alliance under the leadership of Prachanda with the support of the CPN-UML. The alliance will get the support of smaller parties as well. CPN-US will merge with CPN-MC and a new socialist unit party will emerge. Second-rank leaders’of the CPN-UML will oppose Prachanda’s leadership. China will play a mentoring role in the left alliance and keep the alliance together. The alliance will have an internal power tussle and differences given the different backgrounds and commitments of the smaller parties. Third, since both governments will prone to internal bickering, some rigid position of one or two alliance partners on public issues could lead to the fall of that government and Nepal will have mid-term elections to get rid of that unstable political situation.
Conclusion
Out of these three scenarios, scenario one will most likely unfold. The Maoists will be the kingmaker in scenarios 1 and 2. The political leaders will come under public pressure to avoid frequent changes in government and mid-term elections. India, as the oldest political partner and promoter of multiparty democracy in Nepal, would prefer pro-democratic forces like the NC to continue in power. Chronic political instability would have serious security implications for India given its geographical proximity and deepening of people-to-people connections. Earlier, the formation of the left alliance Government (2018-2021) massively dented the bilateral relations due to the ultra-nationalist policy adopted by the then Prime Minister Oli. Despite that, India would prefer to work with any Government formed in Kathmandu by respecting public mandate and it would expect the new government to address India’s sensitivities in the Himalayas like misuse of Nepali territory by Islamistradical groups, curbing the proliferation of Mosqueand Madras in Terai under external funding, protecting to India’s economic projects, and keeping in mind India’s concerns over Chinese engagements in the projects in the border regions.n
(Note: The opinion is personal not of the Institute)
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