Assembly Polls 2022: Striking a Balance

There were two State Assembly elections this month and a Municipal Corporation election. Municipal Corporation being that of the capital of this country, naturally got more than due attention. Two days of counting has thrown up different mandates. One can split hair about the size of the electorate or of a corporation being compared along with a big State like Gujarat. But, they show a further maturing of voters and limitations of overhyped marketing vis a vis delivery. It also shows the importance of managing a strongly growing party. Interestingly, all the three elections have thrown up different results, sending out confusing signals. But, are they really confusing signals? I dare say, no. The clear indication given by the voter is that mere propaganda will not work, they wish to see work on the ground. Voter has become more discriminating.

Delhi MCD Elections

BJP had been written off by the pundits because of its 15-year run of a lacklustre leaderless run in the MCD and AAP’s over-hyped marketing about its real and imaginary achievements. However, voters surprised everyone. AAP was able to scrape through with just two per cent aggregate votes. BJP scored better than expected. It indicated that voters were not impressed by the overhyped achievements of AAP, nor did they write off BJP. Had BJP read the voters right (for which it needed to be among them at-least six months prior to elections on the streets), it could have exposed the hollowness of AAP claims and also projected its good work and turned the tide. It only focused on corruption, underestimated the voter loyalty to Modi ji and its own ground level network.

“In last 2 decades, under the leadership of Modi ji, BJP broke all the records of development in Gujarat and today the people of Gujarat have blessed the BJP and broken all the records of victory”— Amit Shah, Union Home Minister

Warning is clear. Parties better deliver or perish. Decimation of Congress shows how important is perception management. A party that led to Delhi’s growth and held reigns of power for two decades is now on the verge of extinction, because people believe that it is no more interested in politics or ruling; and are abandoning it. This is true not just of Delhi but also Gujarat.

Himachal Pradesh Assembly Elections

Here local Congress leadership refused to give up despite national leadership being in a mood of abdicating its role in power and the result is for all to see. Voting percentage shows that BJP was neck and neck in voting percentage but the final seat count is disproportionately higher in favour of Congress. However, poor candidate management resulting in huge dissatisfaction among its local leaders and aspirants saw nearly 30 per cent rebels in a small state like Himachal Pradesh – 21 among 68 constituencies which is unprecedented.

Gujarat Assembly Elections

It is a phenomenon. For a party to increase its voting percentage to an unprecedented 54 per cent after 27 years of rule, especially after a huge mishap in Morbi, is unbelievable. How did it happen? Any other party after a Morbi-like accident would have perished, but BJP did not.

Modi ji played a huge part in this, no doubt. But, as Harsh Sanghavi, a rising young BJP leader, noted it is not just ‘satta’ (power politics) but ‘sambandh’ (relationship, bonding) that the party has managed to build with the people of Gujarat. It was the work that was celebrated, along with the pride of giving the nation a PM who works day and night for the country and whose image is untainted.

Though AAP did create a buzz, it went overboard and damaged itself with over hyped marketing. Instead of humbly suggesting to the voters that they will provide better and active opposition as compared to a non-functioning Congress party, it chose to show itself as the next ruling party. With a realistic approach, it might have been able to cut off more votes of Congress for itself. Congress leadership, yet again, showed no interest in a State that has given Congress consistent support, even if as a main opposition. Last time, Congress had nearly stolen BJP’s clothes. Instead of encashing, it chose to abdicate and let AAP take away its voters. At the same time, voters did not let AAP swell its head with success and made it the only number three party with 10 per cent votes.

Though AAP did create a buzz, it went overboard and damaged itself with over hyped marketing. Instead of humbly suggesting to the voters that they will provide better and active opposition as compared to a non-functioning Congress party, it chose to show itself as the next ruling party

The portends of this round of elections show that the road to 2024 is still open for opposition. If it wishes to mount a challenge to the unbeatable pole star of Indian politics and his party, and wishes to be back in the game at national level; it will need to be constructive and not just keep quibbling on every Government policy, keep raising fake issues rather than on substantive issues. This will decide its fate. I say the road to 2024 is still open for opposition, because in 2023 there are 5 major State Assembly elections. AAP will still be a party with scattered presence and can’t be the main challenger in 2024. Will wisdom dawn on opposition or will it keep looking like a querulous neighbour who will keep fighting on any pretext, or will it be seen as a responsible group? That is the moot question. For BJP, the challenge is that every kind of politician or wannabe politician will try to wriggle into the party. It needs to retain a balance between rewarding loyal party workers while giving space to new entrants. It cannot be seen as more welcoming to the newcomers at the cost of its loyal workers.