After a gap of four decades, the BJP has become the party that is forming a Government for a second consecutive term in Uttar Pradesh. Although the party’s tally has gone down from its 2017 figure, it has a managed to bag enough seats to register a handsome majority in the Vidhan Sabha.
These elections have taken place at a time when many issues were being raised against the BJP-run Government in Uttar Pradesh. Until a few months before the elections, the country witnessed one of the longest and biggest farmers’ movement against the three farm acts brought by the Central Government in the name of historical reforms in the agriculture sector. In November 2021, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced that Government is taking back these acts and all the three acts were repealed by Parliament. After a few days, the farmers’ organisations called off their agitation and ended their dharna on the borders of Delhi. This was a big step of the Government to reduce the anger of the farmers and to minimise political losses for the BJP. I think this was one of the important decisions which went in favour of the BJP in Uttar Pradesh.
One of the aspects of the agitation was that it was limited to the Western part and in the Terai region of Uttar Pradesh. As we see the result of the Assembly elections, BJP has suffered some political losses in a few districts of Western Uttar Pradesh. Even in the Terai region, the BJP has continued with its winning spree. Central Uttar Pradesh, the Eastern region and Bundelkhand remained unaffected from any impact of the farmers’ protests despite the region being agriculture-dependent.
On some issues, the UP Government led by Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath had taken some corrective measures. For example, just before the announcement of the model code of conduct, the Government reduced power tariffs for agriculture by half. The BJP also announced that power for agriculture would be free for the next five years. Sugarcane payments had been a big issue. Recently, the State Government brought an Act to take strict action against private sugar mills if any mill delayed payment for a long time. At the same time, the Government increased the State Advised Price (SAP) of sugarcane by Rs 25 per quintal for the current crushing season.
On the other hand, the BJP made a good campaign that its Government at the Centre was giving Rs 6,000 per annum to the farmers as PM Kisan Samman Nidhi and helping small farmers, who are in majority in the State. The Government also increased its focus on procurement of paddy and wheat so that farmers get the benefit of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) for their crops. It looks that the BJP leadership and its State Government were able to convey the message that the farmers’ agitation was run by big farmers and that the Government is doing a lot for small and marginal farmers to enhance their income through many State and Central schemes.
During the election days, stray cattle damaging crops became a big issue, at least in the media. It forced even the Prime Minister to make a statement in his public rally that the new Government will come out with a solution to this problem. At the same time, the BJP also changed its stance on some issues in the middle of the campaign for these elections and took corrective measures to bring voters to its fold, particularly those from the rural areas. One thing we need to understand is that farming is not everything for the rural economy. The rural economy is changing and income from other sources have a bigger share for rural households. The findings of a recent systematic assessment survey conducted by the NSSO on rural households have proved that rural people are earning more from other activities than agriculture. Besides, the scheme for free foodgrains and effective distribution of PDS grains among the rural population proved to be a big vote-catcher for the BJP.
The opposition tried hard to prove that the BJP Government was anti-farmers and was not able to fulfil its promise of doubling farmers’ income in six years — a promise made before the previous Assembly elections by the Prime Minister himself at a rally in Uttar Pradesh. It also raised the issue of the farmers’ movement in Delhi. And also raised the issue of the Lakhimpur Kheri incident, in which some farmers died when a car ran over them. The accused is son of a BJP leader and Minister of State for Home Affairs in the Central Government. But in Lakhimpur Kheri, BJP has won all the Assembly seats of the district. Farmers’ organisations campaigned against the BJP and held press conferences appealing to the farmers to vote against it. But the kind of election results we see shows that the farmers organisations’ efforts did not make any big impact on farmers and rural votes.
In Lakhimpur Kheri — the epicentre of farmers’ protest —BJP has won all the Assembly seats. Farmers’ organisations had campaigned extensively against the BJP. But the campaign failed to dent the BJP’s performance in the region
Uttar Pradesh is an agricultural State and its economy and social development depends on agriculture. It has a very good and promising industry, viz. the sugar industry. Ethanol, power and bio fertilisers are the new revenue streams for the industry. The new State Government must bring in a policy so that farmers also get the economic benefit of these new revenue streams.
Winning an election is the most important thing for any political party but having come to power, its real job is the welfare of the people. It is an opportunity for the BJP to keep farmers in its fold. This way it can reap political dividends. The principal opposition has indeed lost the election to the BJP. But it is also a fact the BJP tally has gone down while the main opposition party’s tally has gone up in this Assembly election.
Farming issues, if not handled properly, may give rise to opposition from the farming community. We have seen this over the last two years and this was after a big victory at the Centre in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by the BJP. If the BJP takes good initiatives for the farmers, it will strengthen its base among farmers and ensure future victory, too.
