The country's political battle has picked up pace soon after the Election Commission of India announced dates for Assembly elections in five States. Every party is girded for a no-holds barred slugfest and in fact, many of them brazenly exude confidence of a win. The ruling Government in each State wants to maintain a status quo while the nearest opposition has cranked up through their gears in an effort to upset the current dispensation.
Every State is plagued with a myriad of issues with contrasting circumstances. However, one thing remains constant – no one can pivot towards a common issue across these states and are contended by focusing on local issues. This issue, or rather the lack of one common and unique concern, has put the voters into a dilemma. They are stuck with a paradox of choice – it can either be best of the worst or none.
The battle of numbers is not just about seats. It is also a proxy of what the country should expect three years later when it goes to the polls. With 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh alone, the most populous State, is not just a barometer for the 2024 General election but also a rainmaker.
So let's begin with Uttar Pradesh, which accounts for about 17 per cent of India’s voters and understand their strategy by extrapolating past data. Less than five years ago, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) took control of the northern Indian state with the biggest majority since the past four decades. BJP won 312 of the 403 seats in the State Assembly after Prime Minister Narendra Modi plunged himself into the heart of the battle in a state which didn't even have a chief ministerial candidate then.
For the BJP, the focus is clear — Hindutva and development and the twin planks had worked wonders for the party. The strategy has helped BJP steal a march over the rivals. Despite MY (Muslim Yadav) combination accounting for over a fourth of the vote bank, the alliance of Samajwadi Party and Congress had to settle for just 54 seats, almost six times lower than the closest rival.
However, can BJP win back the politically crucial State this year? The stakes are high for Yogi Adityanath. Chief Minister Yogi’s image as an incorruptible, tough taskmaster and able administrator places him above rival Chief Ministerial aspirants.
How the double engine Government, has transformed the state in various aspects in law and order, connectivity, education, health infrastructure, and overall growth is the main poll-plank of the BJP. Money used for welfare schemes today was used for corruption in earlier governments, has been the key argument of the BJP. Delivery mechanism during the Pandemic was appreciated even by the World Health Organisation and as per the NITI Ayog report UP shows maximum annual incremental performance among 'larger states' in the health index. Perhaps the only gray area for the BJP is how it will deal with the situation arising out of the repeal of three farm laws. It is a fact that farmers form a major chunk of the electorate in Uttar Pradesh and Punjab. In UP, especially western part of the State, Rakesh Tikait, who spearheaded the agitation, seems to be supporting the Samajwadi Party-Rashtriya Lok Dal (SP-RLD) alliance, which will leave no stone unturned to score points over BJP on the issue.
After Yogi's success in fulfilling the poll promise on Ram Temple construction in Ayodhya, BJP has made its intentions clear on Kashi and Mathura. The visuals of PM Modi showering flower petals on workers who constructed the Kashi Vishwanath Corridor and having lunch with them could ensure voters remain engaged in the issue of Hindutva.
So far, his report card looks like work in progress. Under CM Yogi, the law-and-order situation has considerably improved in the State with fall in number of rapes, murders and other violent crimes. He has also been steering a massive push in investments, curbed irregularities and misgovernance to climb to the second spot in ease of doing business ranking, from 14th spot during the earlier government. Voters will reflect upon their own experience to gauge whether on-ground situation has improved or worsened.
For the opposition parties, this is a battle of survival. Both Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) and Congress are still not seen as a threat to him. Priyanka Vadra has rolled out a women-centric campaign but it is highly improbable that the outreach could convert into more votes for the grand old party.
Samajwadi Party (SP) is trying to consolidate its support base and emerge as the main challenger for the BJP. The family run party is also successfully wooing some caste leaders from the BJP to disturb the caste arithmatic of OBC consolidation. How far this strategy would work for the SP is a milion dollar question. This could also result in discontentment within SP where several people have been working tirelessly for long without visible appreciation.
In Uttarakhand, the situation is a tad different. BJP initially had a more defensive strategy in the hill state, in complete contrast with its national perception especially in UP. Three Chief Ministers in the past five years, makes it difficult for them to project a consistent scorecard. Also, Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has joined the fray in an otherwise Congress-BJP game. AAP has nothing to lose and any gain could be detrimental for the other two rivals.
From winning three-fourths of the seats in 2017 courtesy Modi wave, BJP is now a victim of its own success. Pushkar Singh Dhami who is young and dynamic leader was quick enough to act on the sensitive issue of the Government control over Char-Dham temples. Infrastructure Development through the Central Government scheme is the positive point which can help the BJP in saving the Government here.
Congress looked perturbed too. Harish Rawat who failed to win his seat five years ago, is now a blue-eyed boy for them. This has not gone well with veteran and former Uttarakhand Congress president Kishore Upadhyay who has been removed from all party posts.
For BJP, Punjab is a stark contrast and the party has nothing to lose in the agrarian State. In 2017, Congress emerged as the single largest party in the Punjab Assembly election, securing 77 seats, nearly a two-third majority. The big shake-up was the State throwing the ruling Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD)-BJP alliance out of power by giving them three seats while AAP came in second place with 20 seats.
The situation is different now. SAD is no longer with BJP after their tiff over farm laws even as BJP and Captain Amarinder Singh-led Punjab Lok Congress (PLC) held a second round of discussion on the seat sharing agreement for the upcoming Assembly elections in the State. It is Congress who has everything at stake in the State where it faces anti-incumbency. Punjab is also the most indebted State in the country with a debt of more than Rs 3 lakh crore. Without any concrete roadmap, Congress is relying on freebies like free electricity which will burden the State further. Ditto in the case of AAP that has a similar freebies strategy. Punjab, once the most prosperous State, seems to be a skeleton of its glory days.
Under CM Yogi, the law-and-order situation has considerably improved in the state with fall in number of rapes, murders and other violent crimes. He has also been steering a massive push in investments, curbed irregularities and misgovernance to climb to the second spot in ease of doing business ranking
Congress’s public display of a collective leadership has failed to convince people that there are no fissures between Chief Minister Charanjit Singh Channi and Punjab Pradesh Congress Committee (PCC) chief Navjot Singh Sidhu. Congress hopes that Channi, a Dalit leader can pull Dalit voters, which account for 20 per cent of the total base, into his fold. Yet, they are iffy on projecting the face of their next CM to avoid upsetting senior leaders especially Sidhu. A significant chunk of Dalit votes have been taken away by BSP-led Mayawati who has partnered with Akali Dal, that has worsened the situation for Congress. Simply put, Congress is on attack from all fronts at a time when they are unable to adopt a counter attack strategy due to their internal issues.
And there is no guarantee that farmers' issue can benefit only Congress as SAD and AAP supported them vocally and will be a beneficiary now. With no one consensus on farmers' vote preference, one thing is for sure – if Congress faces a defeat in the State, then both the party and Rahul Gandhi will have to do a lot more beyond their usual introspection.
Manohar Parrikar who helped create a stable government in Goa last time is out of picture. Without him, BJP will have to perhaps use all the arrows from its political quiver to win the highest number of seats
Politics in Goa, a tourist and mining hotspot, is complicated. During the last 40-member assembly election, Congress won 17 seats to be the biggest party in the State, only to be an opposition to BJP that claimed the government. That's because every Congress MLA dreams to be a CM and are fickle on the Gandhi family loyalty front.
Manohar Parrikar who helped create a stable government in Goa last time is out of picture. Without him, BJP will have to perhaps use all the arrows from its political quiver to win the highest number of seats. Congress is once bitten twice shy and has made P Chidambaram an observer to leverage his experience.
With the TMC trying to present Mamata Banerjee as a pan-India leader, she has entered the fray and so did AAP. Both parties have been increasingly trying to get a toehold in State after State where the Congress has left dissent among its leaders and cadres unaddressed.
Congress’s Harish Rawat who failed to win his seat five years ago continues to be a blue-eyed boy for the party high command. This has not gone well with veteran and former Uttarakhand Congress president Kishore Upadhyay who has been removed from all party posts
Manipur is no different and shares a similar story with Goa during the last election when it won 28 seats but ceded control to BJP that had 21 seats in a 60-member assembly. This time, BJP looks more confident with the five years of blockade free Manipur. Though surveys show that both the parties are locked in a close battle, the traditional Congress base has weakened to a large extent with many leaders defecting to the BJP. Rregional parties such NPP and NPF could improve their talley in their respective pockets at the const of Congress.
The results of the upcoming Assembly election in these five States will be crucial for BJP which has left no stone unturned to defend their existing rule in four of the five states. Any aberration in their status quo will tilt the balance of power towards opposition, something that BJP cannot afford.
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