West Bengal Assembly Election: For the Left, it is about ‘existence fight’ and not a mere number game

Now there is desperation among the communists and their dwindling support base! Will the Indian Left remain relevant at all in the politics of West Bengal – a state where they ruled (read misruled) for 34 years? It is this predicament that has driven them to restart negotiations with the Congress for an alliance for the 2021 assembly polls. Electorally and politically, one thing is certain the real contest in the state is between Mamata Banerjee-led Trinamool Congress and the BJP. The saffron outfit’s vote share in 2019 general elections shot up to 40 per cent just around three per cent short of Trinamool. “The Congress has been out of power from Bengal since 1976. But with the communists, the shocking rejection by voters came in 2011 first and then followed by 2016 and 2019. Hence, if they cannot do well this time by hook or crook and even during elections or after the polls, they face a litmus test. Either they would be relevant or they may be losing it,” noted Prof Ramakant Sanyal.

Analysts imply that the huge swing of the Left votes in 2019 resulted in BJP’s decisive win in at least 18 Lok Sabha seats. There is a feeling that Muslim votes and farmers issues could give some advantage to the Left Front candidates as unlike Lok Sabha polls, the assembly elections are fought more on local issues and various neighbourhood’ factors. But the ‘desperation’ has pushed CPI(M) veteran Biman Bose and others to agree for an alliance with the Congress. In 2016 assembly polls, when both these rivals had come together to fight Mamata Banerjee, the Congress had won 45 seats as against only 32 by the CPI(M)-led Left Front. As a result, the CPI-M had even lost the Leader of the Opposition status to its former rival-turned-new friend Congress.

Irked over the fact that while the Congress votes did not transfer to the Left kitty but the converse did happen, the communists abandoned the Congress in 2019. However, this too did not help and the BJP stood to benefit.

The initial round of Congress-Left parleys for alliance on Sunday, Jan 17, 2021, made some progress but hiccups remained. Sources say the Congress has placed a demand for 130 seats in seat adjustments while this was not acceptable to the communists. But ‘helplessness’ leaves no better choice. Hence the Marxists have said that further talks would be necessary to stitch the alliance.

A sizable section of communist leaders has virtually given up the battle to defeat Mamata (whom they hated till the other day) either on their own or even in alliance with the Congress. They know pretty well that only the BJP can do that. The other section has pushed the line that the BJP is ‘bigger’ enemy as besides the ideological difference; electorally the saffron party would be a much more difficult lot to be dislodged even in the near future. But Mamata is a weak customer in today’s polity. Hence this section is trying to workout a game plan under which let Mamata survive even if that means eating up all the ‘communists’ pride’.

But given a choice, they want a situation wherein Mamata is actually ‘dependent on the communists’ for her survival after the alliance. This means — the communists are again day-dreaming of a fractured mandate and this would give them the space for playing the good old ‘power broker’ role in the corridors of power. The local BJP leaders are aware of these machinations of the Leftists and hence they say the saffron camp’s campaign will be to expose the Left and convince the Bengal voters that the mandate should be decisive in favour of the BJP nominees.

Some analysts say the Leftists may increase their vote share and this could create problems for the BJP to wrest power in the 294-member assembly. Does a good performance by Congress-Left alliance actually mean ‘Split’ in anti-Mamata votes remains to be seen? Tridip Chatterjee, a local BJP worker in south Bengal, Asansol, said – “Such calculation too is erroneous as Leftists vote bank has been Muslim support base and this is also what Trinamool Congress hopes to garner. A better show by the Left Front would be actually at the cost of Trinamool,” he says adding, rather BJP’s vote tally may be affected by the Congress in certain pockets.

There is yet another major issue. In Kerala, where elections will be held almost simultaneously with Bengal, the communists and the Congress are bitter and formidable rivals to each other. In such a situation, the BJP will get a chance to accuse both these forces of ‘political opportunism’ and ‘double standards’. According to BJP’s footsoldier Tridip Chatterjee, the Left-Congress alliance is less of a good strategy to win voters’ faith and more a sign of confused strategy and symbol of mutual helplessness. He further points out with Mamata Banerjee and her party, many ‘hardcore and committed’ Leftists and their families and friends would have ‘personal bitterness’ as post-2011 defeat, the brunt of the political violence perpetrated by Trinamool ‘goons’ fell on the communists. They may not endorse an armed-chair strategy where the entire purpose seems to aim at helping Mamata in the name of stalling the BJP.

The saffron party camp feels on the contrary to what the Leftists and the Congress are planning in Bengal, the fructification of the alliance in West Bengal could add to practical problems for both in Kerala, and here too unlike the past, the voters would have an alternative as the BJP has made significant inroads in recent months.