West Bengal is heading towards Assembly Poll in another few months. Quite a few issues are storming the State right now. Mis-governance, lawlessness & brutal oppression of opposition parties following the legacy of the previous Left-regime are taking a toll on West Bengal. The reckless assassination of opposition partymen (one murder per day on an average) & getting them police-reported as suicide or out of personal rivalry has been a predictable pattern. Police & Administration have been politicised to have incidents reported favourably for the ruling dispensation & media have been parroting the same for sheer existence. Violation of Human Rights, an increasing number of rapes, indirect patronage of rapists by not punishing them are going well in congruence with the present political environment of the State.
GoWB has indulged into massive defalcation of Government Treasury adding to loan burden of the State almost 3 times that of Left Front Regime & got the existing revenue system dismantled. The State allegedly destroyed earlier Government records perhaps for ease of fudging present data. GoWB in the last 10 years has discouraged revenue collection & the ruling party allegedly collected donations in cash & kind from a handful of industrialists of the State. This facilitated GST-evasion in lieu of collecting political CHANDA. The State Treasury lost while the ruling party gained. The ruling party has been exploiting people in the name of State projects & snatched cuts from there. Dole politics is being done unabashedly in order to squeeze cuts from there.
Unemployment of Middle Class & Lower Middle Class has seen a gigantic upsurge in West Bengal due to non-appointment in different Government departments in proper scale & Teaching Services. Non-payment to Government employees their dues is another burning issue of the State. GoWB kept a huge deficit in Dearness Allowance of Government Employees creating a frustrated & oppressed set of Government staff. Lack of formal employment in different sectors facilitated hooliganism & oppressive syndicate raj which further resulted in a complete void in the industry sector. Industries can’t operate from here as hooligans rule the State. West Bengal eroded its Police Infrastructure & stopped appointments in State Police Service too. Instead, it sheltered untrained, incapable people as Civic Police. Civic Police remain instrumental in practising tolabaji & hooliganism.
Other major issues destroying the socio-economic equilibrium & demography of West Bengal are as follows:
- Morbid appeasement of a Community
- Letting infiltrators enter unhindered for illegal VOTE BANK CREATION
- Extraordinary flourishing of the bomb-making industry
- Flourishing of illegal arms manufacturing in innumerable sites of WB including Kolkata
- Providing safe haven to Islamic TERRORISTS
- Facilitating Islamic TERRORISTS’ laboratory-experiments on lethal weapons & explosives, in places like Khagragarh, Birbhum, Murshidabad, Uttar 24 Parganas, Kolkata
- Repeated communal riots
- Uncontrolled state-wide corruption
The State Treasury lost while the ruling party gained. Mamata’s party has been exploiting people in the name of State projects & snatched cuts from there. Dole politics is being done unabashedly in order to squeeze cuts from there
All these issues have prepared the ground for democratic removal of the present legislation. The ground appears ready for another negative-vote-centric Election in West Bengal similar to that of 2011. That year too, the State had a ready list of issues & people voted out LEFTs accepting Mamata Banerjee as a credible option against them. People didn’t opt-in Mamata Banerjee but opted out the LEFTs. Since then, West Bengal experienced how it felt being ‘from frying pan to fire’. That is perhaps why the State, this time, is supposed to be more careful about letting a third political party capture the ground. Lack of any previous exposure of West Bengal to BJP Ruling may also contribute to such apprehension. Moreover, for the last five decades since 1967, West Bengal had always elected her Assembly to oppose the Centre. The State might have developed antagonism in her core. In addition to that, Jyoti Basu till the nineties did planned promulgation that BJP is a party of uncivilised barbarians. The idea still prevails in a section of WB people though they are less influential in present Bengal. The silent majority doesn’t seem to subscribe to Basu-hypothesis any more. In spite of all these strengths & opportunities in favour, Bengal election for BJP would not be a similar experience to what Mamata Banerjee had in 2011. Mamata won just by consolidating on Left-phobia. BJP’s fight in Bengal is supposed to be harder as Mamata-phobia in 2020 is perhaps less pronounced than Left-phobia in 2011.
There’s one more subtle reason why BJP’s fight would be tough in 2021. In the last 10 years of Banerjee, added to previous 34, the tolerance level of West Bengal to political nuisance has increased manifold. People of West Bengal, especially the SCs, STs & the huge number of refugees of the State, had almost lost hope for a dignified life with head high. They seem to have admitted a life of incessant conflict as destiny. Why’s Bengal a hotbed of clashes even in petty issues? Why can people of Bengal attempt homicide even for some very small amount of money? Why does an MP of West Bengal mark a meagre Rs 5 lac to be “anek taka” (a lot of money)? Because they are insecure & deprived of true affluence since independence. After Partition, West Bengal is perhaps the only State where people neither got financial security nor recognition as coveted Indians. Having been exposed to continuous infiltration of Bangladeshi Muslims through 2216.17 Km long Indo-Bangladesh border & having to absorb LEFT toxins for the last 6 decades, West Bengal kept on losing financially, socially, culturally & demographically. The incessant struggle for existence set inertia in people of scratching the ground & disbelieving others. Hence, they may not believe in any new verbal promises of any other political party easily unless they receive something tangible in hand. While on the one hand, this feeling of insecurity is an OBSTACLE for BJP, it’s also an OPPORTUNITY on the other. Implementation of the Citizenship Amendment Act would remove people’s inherent insecurity & offer them something tangible. Citizenship Certificate is a priceless thing to the huge number of refugees of Bengal. Partition caused innumerable losses to them. The loss, however, that haunted them the most is the loss of IDENTITY.
The Namasudras (MATUAS) of West Bengal, were forced to leave their land & properties in East-Pakistan (later Bangladesh), for no fault of theirs. Did they want Partition? No. Muslim League wanted it & got endorsed by Congress. To save lives & culture from religious persecution in Islamic Bangladesh, MATUAS came to India & settled in West Bengal. As they were citizens of undivided India & continued to stay in Bangladesh as long as they could, they deserve to be Citizens of that part of India which is not Islamic. Hence, if BJP implements CAA before Assembly Poll 2021, it is expected to be a game-changer & may cause a sweeping saffron surge in the State that might continue for indefinite future. In a single stroke, the 2021 Election may turn into a positive-vote-centric Election leading to BJP’s victory, not only as a trial alternative of the tyrant ruler but as the Party of Choice.
The State had a ready list of issues & people voted out LEFTs accepting Mamata Banerjee as a credible option against them. People didn’t opt-in Mamata Banerjee but opted out the LEFTs. Since then, West Bengal experienced how it felt being ‘from frying pan to fire’. That is perhaps why the State, this time, is supposed to be more careful about letting a third political party capture the ground
It would be relevant to mention here that LEFTs bagged votes of these people by distributing Ration Cards & Voter Cards implying that those documents were citizenship documents. TMC too is promulgating that all Refugees are automatically Citizens of India as they have voter ID, Aadhaar card etc. None of these political parties communicated the truth that none of these documents, not even Passport, is a valid Citizenship document as per The Citizenship Act, 1955. The refugees understood the issue after Assam NRC. Some of them realised that despite their staying in India for decades & casting votes in Indian Elections, legal implications regarding their Indian Citizenship continued to exist. Their existence, identity & properties in India were all uncertain unless their Citizenship got confirmed. Political Parties like LEFTs & TMC were aware of this & arm-twisted them for vote bank assurance. BJP is the first & only party in independent India which sorted the legal complication bypassing CAA, 2019 & thus amending The Citizenship Act, 1955. After implementation thereof, once Citizenship Certificates are handed over to them, no political party, not even BJP, would be able to arm-twist them ever again. This is something that MATUAS have been waiting for since 1971.
100 specific constituencies of West Bengal can change the fate of West Bengal Poll. Out of these 100 Assembly Constituencies, 45 falls precisely upon West Bengal-Bangladesh border while the rest 55 assembly constituencies, although are not located precisely on Indo-Bangladesh border but are quite close to that. Out of 45 on-border assemblies, 25 constituencies are in North Bengal while 20 are in South Bengal. Out of 55 near-border-constituencies, 16 are in North Bengal & 39 are in South Bengal, thus making the total tally of 100 Constituencies which are either precisely adjacent to Bangladesh border or are sufficiently close to it. Out of these 100 constituencies, 32 are reserved for SCs & 5 for STs. Out of these 32 SC Constituencies, 14 are in North Bengal & 18 are in South Bengal. Out of these 14 constituencies of North Bengal, 4 are in Coochbehar, 4 in Jalpaiguri, 1, (Matigara-Naxalbari) in Darjeeling, 2 in Uttar Dinajpur, 2 in Dakshin Dinajpur & 1 (Gajol), in Malda. Out of 18 near-border SC constituencies of South Bengal, 4 are in Nadia, 7 each in South 24 Parganas & North 24 Parganas.
If BJP implements CAA before Assembly Poll 2021, it is expected to be a game-changer & may cause a sweeping saffron surge in the State that might continue for indefinite future. In a single stroke, the 2021 Election may turn into a positive-vote-centric Election leading to BJP’s victory, not only as a trial alternative of the tyrant ruler but as the Party of Choice
It might be additionally noted that out of the 10 districts of West Bengal that shares an international border with Bangladesh, only one district, Murshidabad does not have any reserved constituencies near the border. Logic thereof is unclear. Though there are 16 constituencies of Murshidabad that are near the Bangladesh border & only 6 constituencies are reasonably distant from Bangladesh, all the 3 reserved constituencies of Murshidabad namely Nabagram, Khargram & Burwan fall amongst those 6 constituencies which are distant from Bangladesh. What may be the probable reason for not keeping any of the 16 on/near-border constituencies of Murshidabad reserved for SCs/STs? Perhaps to let Muslims fight from these seats & enable illegal Bangladeshi Muslims to come & vote for them. Murshidabad is documented to be a significant infiltration-point. Murshidabad’s exceptional distribution of reserved seats for SC-STs is also perhaps to facilitate infiltration. If a few on/near border constituencies of Murshidabad get reserved for SCs and STs, uninterrupted infiltration of Bangladeshi Muslims might be interrupted.
Out of total 294 constituencies of West Bengal, 66 are reserved for SCs & 16 for STs. This implies that 22.44% of WB seats are SC seats & 5.44% seats are ST seats. Reserved Seats of each district of West Bengal should ideally have remained distributed in this proportion. Out of 22 Assembly Constituencies of Murshidabad, 5 seats for SC & 1 seat for ST could have been the right proportion while Murshidabad presently has only 3 reserved seats namely Nabagram, Khargram & Burwan. All these 3 are away from the Indo-Bangladesh border, nearer to Birbhum. This is an anomaly instrumental in distorting West Bengal’s demography.
100 above-referred Constituencies of West Bengal are refugee-dominated & can change the game. They constitute 34% of the total number of Assemblies of the State. Apart from these 100, many other Constituencies including a substantial number of those of Kolkata are inhabited by Refugees from Bangladesh. Amongst various other issues, the main political issue of all these constituencies is CITIZENSHIP. Ceaseless frictions on the ground of West Bengal predominantly comprise those between Infiltrators & Refugees. Due to political arm-twisting, the two distinctly separate classes of people received apparently similar status in West Bengal for so long. However, as Syamaprasad Mookerjee conceptualised West Bengal as Hindu Homeland, refugees here are logically entitled to get Citizenship while infiltrators are not. CAA, once implemented, would be that official security-statement from the Government of India to the Refugees which they longed forever since they were forced to leave their establishment at East Pakistan/Bangladesh. A permanent line of demarcation would thus be drawn between REFUGEES & INFILTRATORS. Such demarcation is necessary for post-Partition India.
Would BJP capitalise Mamata-phobia & come out as the single largest party in West Bengal? Or would the Party step into the State with a strong positive note by implementing CAA? If the latter, more than 200 seats in West Bengal, seems an achievable target for the party.
(The writer is a columnist and political analyst)
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