Saffron Surge in Hyderabad

Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation (GHMC) election results came as a shocker to many political pundits as the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) tally surged to 48 in the city of Bhagyanagar. As we see the poll results, one thing becomes evident: BJP is going to be a party whose presence in the South cannot be taken for granted. Telangana is the new entrant in the list of Southern states where BJP’s presence is massive. TRS’s tally came down from 99 in 2016 to 55 this time around, and All India Majlis-e-Ittehad-ul-Muslimeen (AIMIM) retained the 44 seats it had with no change.

The Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh, Yogi Adityanath, played an undeniable role in helping the BJP emerge stronger in the GHMC Polls. To understand his influence, it is essential to know the demographics of Greater Hyderabad. The city’s population consists of 65 per cent Hindus and 30 per cent Muslims, with the latter concentrated in the old city area. The iconic Bhagyalakshmi Temple in the old city is situated right next to Charminar and was the centre of all politics in this election. The belief here is that the deity derives its name from what the city was earlier called- Bhagyanagar, to which Yogi promised to rename Hyderabad back to. Interestingly, various BJP leaders have promised this before, but none could win the locals’ support like him. From Article 370 to Ram Mandir, he single-handedly managed to shift the focus of the polls from Telugu pride to national security and identity.

Bypolls were held in 59 constituencies across 11 states last month, and BJP managed to win 41 of them. Dubbaka is one of the places where by-polls were held following the incumbent TRS MLA’s demise. Located in KCR’s home district Siddipet, it should have been an easy win for TRS. However, BJP’s Raghunandan Rao won the elections, making him the second BJP MLA in the Telangana Legislative Assembly. Any political analyst will tell you how important it is to win the perception battle before the actual fight. BJP’s victory in Dubbak created an impression among voters in Hyderabad that KCR is losing ground in Telangana. What was once a party with little influence became one which defeated TRS in its home turf. For a cadre driven party like the BJP, this win was very motivating for the party workers to campaign in Greater Hyderabad.

There-is-no-alternative (TINA) factor that benefitted the TRS for long disappeared in the GHMC elections. TINA was converted to BITA (BJP is the alternative). The combined vote share of Congress and TDP was 23 per cent in 2016, and it drastically came down to 8 per cent this time around. TRS approximately lost 10 per cent of its votes, and BJP, which had a vote share of 10 per cent, secured 36 per cent of the votes. Clearly, BJP gained more from Congress and TDP than TRS and replaced them to become the principal opponent of TRS in Telangana

The city of Bhagyanagar was severely flooded for a week in October. Lakes like Himayat Sagar and Hussain Sagar overflowed, causing massive waterlogging in the nearby low lying areas. The Chief Minister sought ₹1350 crore to reverse all the damages caused by the floods. KCR promised to give ₹10,000 to all flood-affected families as temporary relief. However, the locals alleged that they had not received even a single paise from the State Government. Authorities started to distribute the fund right when elections were around the corner, which was later stopped by Telangana State Election Commission, citing the Model Code of Conduct. The overall response of KCR in handling the situation was rated inadequate by the citizens. The Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh, on the contrary, distributed food packets and essentials. BJP promised to distribute ₹25,000 to all the flood distressed people in its election manifesto. This timely poll promise and the RSS’s service helped the party sweep most of the flood-affected areas like Jeedimetla, Vanasthalipuram, and Hastinapuram.

There is no alternative (TINA) factor that benefitted the Telangana Rashtra Samiti (TRS) for long disappeared in the GHMC Elections. TINA, converted to BITA (BJP is the alternative) given its massive campaign before the polls. The combined vote share of Indian National Congress (INC) and Telugu Desam party (TDP) was 23 per cent in 2016, and it drastically came down to 8 per cent this time around. TRS approximately lost 10 per cent of its votes, and BJP, which had a vote share of 10 per cent, secured 36 per cent of the votes. Clearly, BJP gained more from the INC and TDP than TRS and replaced them to become the principal opponent of TRS in Telangana. The role of Pawan Kalyan in helping BJP gain an advantage over TDP cannot be ignored, given the strategic role he played in transferring the migrant Kapu votes to BJP.

Chanakya came across a mother scolding her child who burnt his tongue for eating a bowl of porridge from its centre instead of the cooler ends. That is when he realised that to overthrow the Nanda King, he must eat away the edges of his kingdom and only then attack its centre. BJP followed a similar strategy in Greater Hyderabad.

BJP President JP Nadda held a roadshow in the south-east part of the city called Nagole, MoS Home held a campaign in the east and northeast parts of the city called Malkajgiri. Yogi Adityanath addressed a rally in the old city, which is the southern and southwestern parts of Greater Hyderabad. BJP did extensive door to door campaigning in the northwestern zone called Cyberabad through a group of dedicated volunteers called ProNamo. In the final leg, BJP’s senior leader and Union Home Minister Amit Shah campaigned in the city’s centre called Secunderabad.

GHMC Polls gave BJP a chance to test their strategy in a comparatively low profile election yet with strong similarities to the upcoming polls in West Bengal. Like Bhagyanagar, West Bengal also has a substantial Muslim population who make up 30 per cent of the total population. It will be interesting to observe the influence of AIMIM and whether Left parties become the next TDP in West Bengal. n