Exodus from Trinamool

The soil beneath the Ma-Mati-Manush government’s feet in Bengal is fast eroding.

The ruling Trinamool Congress (TMC) and government is widely held and accused of beingseverely `scam ridden and tainted’. The BJP central leadership has justifiablypointed out that quite illegally Bengal has `three laws’ – one for Mamata’s family, two for votes through appeasement of Bengali Muslimsand third for the common person. Bengali Muslimsare the mainstay ‘vote-bank’ for Mamata and TMC as it was for the CPM that ruled the state for thirty-four.

As per the 2011 census, Bengali Muslims comprise 27.01 per cent of the state’s population. Conservative estimates suggest that in the past few years the volume has increased by another 8 per cent to 35 per cent.

Disgusted with its present form oforganisation and leadership agarrison of Trinamool Congress (TMC) leadersare ready to revolt against the party. They are waiting on wings to join Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).

Political observers feel that the mass exodus from Trinamool to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) could be so severe that Governor JagdeepDhankar may have to call Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee for afloor test in the state assembly much before the scheduled state elections in April-May 2021. Major shifts from TMC to BJP may happen within January 26, 2021. BJP leader and MP Saumitra Khan said around 58 TMC leaders are waiting to join BJP soon. Khan had defected from TMC and joined BJP in 2019.

At present, the ruling TMC government has 221 seats on its own and two Gorkha Jan MuktiMorcha MLAs and BJP 16 seats in the state assembly. The majority figure is 147. A number of TMC leaders have already joined BJP. They include Mukul Roy (in November 2017), Sabyasachi Dutta, Saumitra Khan, AnupamHazra and MihirGoswami. SuvenduAdhikary is expected to join BJP soon.

Bengal was placed under President’s rule in 1962, 1968, 1970 and 1971 for 7, 370, 379 and 265 days. In 1968, 1970 and 1971 subsequent governments lost majorities. Political experts said it could be the fifth time that Bengal might is heading for President’s rule. In 1962 there was a stalemate of 7 days after the sudden death of the then chief minister Dr B C Roy and the state was placed under President’s rule. At present the margin between TMC and a possible President’s rule is 76.

BJP has already made inroads into Bengal in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections by winning over 40 per cent of the state’s votes and 43 per cent of the Lok Sabha seats. The party cut into 20 per cent of Left and 7 per cent of Congress votes in the state to achieve a quantum jump in votes from 12 per cent in 2016 Assembly elections to over 40 per cent in 2019 Lok Sabha election. TMC’s vote share was 44 per cent.

Considering the 2019 Lok Sabha polls BJP is already ahead in 121 assembly constituencies. Estimates suggest if BJP can hold the lead then itschancesof reaching the magic figure of 147 looks very bright. For that it will have to win only 15% of the remaining 173 seats. TMC insiders said there is a 50-50 chance for BJP or TMC winning the remaining seats.

However, there are tiny glitches as BJP lost three assembly bye-polls in Kharagpur Sadar (city), Kaliaganj and Karimpurin 20919 even after its convincing win of 18 seats in theLok Sabha polls. BJP was defeated in its own citadel in Kharagpur. State BJP President Dilip Ghosh is the MP from that seat.

In 2021 assembly polls, BJP is yet to project a chief minister designate. The BJP leadership haspromised a `son of the soil’ to replaceMamata Banerjee. Banerjee’s image is allegedly tarnished as she is accused of abetting a number of scams and scandals of her party members and close kin. They include the over thousand crore Sarada chit fund scam, Narada portal sting operation and bribe scam and of late the cow-smuggling and illegal coal mining scams. The Central Bureau of Investigation has filed over 20 FIRs in the Sarada chit fund scam and the Enforcement Directorate has issued a number of notices to TMC leaders who have a tendency of avoiding them.

TMC MP and party chief whip in Parliament SudipBandyopadhyayand Tapas Paul were arrested alongside Mamata’s one-time right hand and MLA Madan Mitra for involvement in these scams. In 2018 matters turned worse for the party when Mamata was forced to hit the streets at night and stage a dharnato save her own skin and that of her city police commissioner Rajeev Kumar, an alleged accused in the Sarada chit fund scam case, from CBI arrest. Since February 2018 Kumar is evading arrest and is now onbail for over one-year given by the Kolkata High Court. The Supreme Court and other lower courts in the state had ruled for his custody by the CBI. The Mamata government has transferred Kumar to an administrative post leaving aside his police job. At the moment there are over 20 FIRs pending against different TMC leaders on chit fund cases. As for BJP’s chief minister face two names are remotely doing the rounds – – the highly improbable former Indian captain and a considered ‘dada’ (elder brother) of Bengal SouravGanguly and Mamata’s man Friday SuvenduAdhikary. Interestingly, both are `sons of the soil’ as held by the BJP central leadership. BJP Bengal has 32 functionaries and officer bearers alongside 18 MPs and 16 MLAs.

Senior leaders and silent Mamatacritics within the party confide in anonymity that the she is unwilling to forget her past Congress culture of ‘Durbar’ and promoting of dynasty rule within the party. Mamata broke away from the Congress in 1998 and formed her own party. Time and again Mamata had hinted within and outside the party that her nephew Abhisekh Banerjee, Trinamool youth Congress President and MP from DiamondHarbourLok Sabha constituency is her ‘natural and logical’ choice and successor.

It has peeved a large section of the party’s senior lieutenants. The exodus from Trinamool to BJP is primarily because of thispent-up grievance. She is also accused of not placing trust on senior party members and hiring professional mercenaries to win the 2021 polls. Abhisekh Banerjee was instrumental in bringing Prashant Kishore and I-PAC to work out TMC’s election strategy for 2021 a network that is commonly known as ‘PK-ABHI’ combination within the party. Senior party leaders hold in private that Abhishekh is a ‘green horn’ and a `person of low experience’ in state politics.

TMC is likely to go the CPM way and crash in the 2021 state elections. CPM ruled the state for 34 years but lost to TMC in a ‘phenomenal’ in 2011. The then chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharya and industry minister Nirupam Sen were blamed for the debacle. Like Mamata they had also ignored diktats of senior party members placing trust on the young and few. By then factional infights and financial corruptions had invaded the CPM who were trying to retain power through physical intimidation and atrocities on political opponents and common persons, a process now being followed by Mamata who is also facing a similar type of ‘legitimacy crisis’ in the state.

Cut-money culture, bribes and rampant extortion is ruling the roost in TMC. The people of Bengal are sensing a ‘Deja-Vu’ experience they had during the last days of CPM rule. Barring a few TMC supporters and sympathisers it will be difficult to find a common person on the street who might have some good things to say about Mamata.

Mamata seems to have turned a blind eye to the party’s alleged corruption ‘cut-money’ culture. It has wrecked the party from within creating two warring groups within the party – the ‘haves’ and the ‘have not’. The rampant loot and mal-distribution of relief for cyclone Ampan materialsby TMC leaders in the villages and districts has widened the schism further.At present Mamata’s statements of taking action against inner party corruption is considered as a‘lip service’. It is alleged that some of her close associates and kin have created ‘individual talukas’ within the city and are engaged in unauthorised real estate promoting.

Mamata is sensing trouble for her party, government and above all family members. Therefore, she has become desperate and has raised an illogical slogan that central BJP leaders are `outsiders’ in the state. Her nephew Abhisekh has even foul-mouthed them in public. Mamata’s ignorance seems appalling as she is unaware of the rich and luminous traditions of Bengal and the state’s relation to Bharatiya Janata Party. Mamata might be hardly aware of the creations of luminaries like DrShyama Prasad Mukherjee and the brilliant academic and mathematician Professor Debaprasad Ghosh.

Nirmal Chandra Chatterjee, father of CPM leader and the only Bengali Speaker in Lok Sabha Somnath Chatterjee also hailed from Burdwan in Bengal and was a member of AkhilBharatiya Hindu Mahasabha. He was also a Lok Sabha MP.

While Mukherjee founded the Bharatiya Jan Sangh, the predecessor of BJP in 1951, Ghosh was the President of the Sangh from 1956 to 1965 barring two years between 1960 and 1962. He was also the longest serving opposition party leader.

Mamata’s desperation has also led her to forget how and when she held the RashtriyaSwayamsevakSangh (RSS) as an organisationof ‘true patriots’in 2003. Now she refuses to recognise her own statements for communal gains.

Much of Bengal BJP’s pastand glorious history has been rubbed out by the previous Congress, Left and Trinamool governments. They onlymade up ‘euro-centric’ matters look holy and wise. For years India was in the grip of ‘comprador intellectuals’ who are abhorrent of Indian civilisation and culture. Bengal was no exception. It is time that Bengal needs to take a re-look of all its past glories and untold history. The 2021 polls will give the answer and restore all that was forcibly faded away and made to forget by the previous Congress, Left and TMC governments for 73 years.