Time for Socioeconomic Vipassana

If India can contain the COVID-19 pandemic at Stage-1, then it can save 940K jobs and protect its GDP from $29,500 million worth of loss. This majorly depends upon how quickly Indians can practise the socio-economic Vipassana

 

2020, the Chinese Year of Rat, symbolises wealth and surplus in Chinese Zodiac calendar. In terms of yin and yang, the symbol of Rat is considered ‘yang’ and represents the beginning of a new day. On the first day of trading after the holiday, China’s market fell by 8 per cent due to Coronavirus outbreak, which impacted the global markets. For example, crude oil hit its lowest in more than a year. It dropped by 30%. Copper price dropped by 13%, reflecting the decline in demand from China’s construction industry.

Oxford Economics, an eminent consultancy firm, predicts that China’s economy will grow less than 4 % in the first quarter of 2020 from a year earlier. It also reduced the annual average growth rate forecast from 6% (pre-Coronavirus) to 5.6%.

In 2003, when Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) hit China, its GDP growth lurched by 2 per cent in Q2. But in Q3 and Q4, Government and market worked in synergy to revive the growth. As a result, China attained an annual GDP growth of a whopping 9.9 per cent. It is also important to highlight that in 2020 China’s economic size (99 trillion RMB) is nine times than that of 2003 (11.7 trillion RMB).

As per IMF when comparing the impact of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC)- 2008 with COVID19 on China’s economy, manufacturing industry saw 11 per cent more decline and service industry saw 50 per cent more decline.

The Chinese Finance Ministry issued subsidies worth 27 billion RMB ($4 billion approximately) for the prevention and control of the Coronavirus. To safeguard liquidity in the market, the Chinese Central bank injected $174 billion and reduced the reverse repo rates.

While China was fighting with Coronavirus outbreak, US President at the World Economic Forum 2020, again requested the World Trade Organisation to consider China and India as developed nations, not as developing nations.

This pandemic has again legitimised the developing nation status of India. It is a self-declaration system. There is some global classification done by UN and OECD in which countries are classified, majorly based on the GNI (Gross National Income) per capita, into High-income countries, Upper middle income countries, lower middle income and low-income countries. Based on 2013 data, China is placed in Upper middle-income countries and India in Lower middle income countries.

• China’s GNI per capita is just 28 per cent
• India’s GNI per capita is just 12 per cent

With having the status of the developing country, countries can get some preferential benefits like subsidies to the health care sector. These kinds of subsidies are important to fight coronavirus like epidemics.

The US President is trying to subvert the paradigm. He wants to define the status of the countries based on the factors like the membership of OECD, G20. Practically, these membership allows developing countries to voice their concerns and perspective.

As per Mckinsey’s Covid19 March 2020 note, because rapid control of coronavirus transmission requires a greater shift in daily behaviour, that at least need six to eight weeks, the global GDP could decline in the range of 12 per cent to 40 per cent. Less developed economies may suffer more than advanced economies. Not all sectors will be equally affected. Service sector including aviation, tourism and travel will see a sharp decline.

As per the present scenario, this may pull the global economy into a slowdown, though not recession. The coronavirus epidemic comprises both supply and demand shudders. Business interruptions have lowered production, creating tremors to supply. And consumers’ and businesses’ hesitancy to spend has lowered demand.

Considering that the economic consequence reflects an acute decline in specific sectors, policymakers will need to implement substantial targeted fiscal, monetary, and financial market measures to help affected households and businesses.

Considering the widespread cross-border economic relations and the outbreak of pandemic across many countries, a coordinated international response is the need of the hour. The international community must help countries with limited health capacity avert a humanitarian disaster.

Considering Namaste’s effectiveness in stopping the transmission of coronavirus, the world has adapted Namaste as a global customary greeting. Now, Indians should showcase the universal remedy for COVID19 by self practising Vipassana meditation course for at least the next 15 days.

Vipassana, which means to see things as they are, is one of India’s most ancient techniques of meditation. It was rediscovered by Buddha more than 2500 years ago and was taught by him as a universal remedy for all ills.

To contain the pandemic, the Western proposes for self-quarantine, which means just physical detachment. Vipassana is a more holistic way to fight COVID-19. It recommends not only physical detachment but also techniques to train mind and thoughts, resulting in a balanced mind full of self-control and increased awareness.

As per the Asian Development Bank, COVID-19 assessment, if India can contain the coronavirus in stage-1, then India can save 940K job losses and protect its GDP from $29500 million worth loss. This majorly depends upon “How quickly” and “with how much discipline” Indians practice the socio-economic Vipassana.

The real effect of Coronavirus epidemic will depend on how long it will take to eradicate the virus. As Winston Churchill said, “Never let a good crisis go to waste”. The COVID-19 pandemic’s impingement on global economic order gives India a chance to re-balance the economy by reducing the Chinese trade deficit, boosting “Make in India”, re-igniting in some strategic regional cooperation (like SAARC) etc. This would be like practising economic (to some extent diplomatic) Vipassana by policymakers, leaders, industry and citizens by first eradicating coronavirus in the first stage and then with an astute strategy to use this disruption in the global order to enhance India’s global stature, power and influence. If India successfully grabs these crucial opportunities, next year when the US will be busy with election and the EU with Brexit negotiations – India can increase its share, both in the global economy and pari passu in global diplomacy.