Prof Satish Kumar
Chinese propaganda in support of the move to remove two-term limit for President has received sharp reaction from the social media users. They have termed it as beginning of the North Korean regime in China. Chinese and world politics will have direct bearings of this change.
The internal politics of China is going to be more intrusive and dictatorial. The status of minority communities will deescalate to torture and gross violations of human rights. The fall outs of this change will bring certain things. More torture, no legal reforms, total surveillance, permanent brutality against ethnic and religious minorities are going to be incorporated. Externally, China is going to challenge the world order through its signature grandiose of “One Belt One Road” campaign. China has been trying to replace the vacuum which has been created by America.
The Xi era could be the third phase of Chinese politics. The Mao era was revolutionary era, Deng was dubbed as a reformist, but Xi has coined, “Socialism with the Chinese Characteristics” as the beginning of the third phase. The meaning of Chinese characteristics is very obvious. Xi placed great emphasis on strengthening the military power and discarding opponents’ view especially online. The thought of Xi further narrates 30 years of China down the line would become a great power modern socialist country. It will be the centre of world politics. Things will move as per the wishes of China. The internal dynamics of Xi thought is to move the economy along with pipeline of party structure. It proves the fact that the market economy will be controlled or speed of reforms will be halted. Xi abhors Western democracy or market system, that is why he writes that China has a different colour which is definitely different from the western countries.
Xi’s imagination is to lead the world’s second largest economy into a new era of international power and influence. The Congress has agreed to pursue the policy of Xi unanimously. Xi narrated the road map of China. He said China is a country of 1.3 billion, living in jubilations and dignity. Our land radiates with power and strength. China has a brilliant prospect. There has been a complete centralisation of power. The post of Prime Minister has been made less important.
The world politics is changing very quickly. India-US strategic partnership has moved to new height. It has been challenge to China. China’s attitude in the last few years has been very aggressive. Especially it is moving towards Indian Ocean. Its roadmap in Pakistan, Sri-Lanka and Myanmar is very clear and indicative. The recent move of China in Maldives created further challenge for India. China is eying at Maldives. A number of statements made by China in the aftermath of the political crisis in the Maldives show that it has deep interests in the country. It has called on the international community to play a “constructive role” in the crisis and urged other countries to respect Maldives’ internal affairs. This comment is seen as directed towards India. China’s state-run tabloid Global Times has also warned that Beijing will retaliate if New Delhi unilaterally decides to send troops to the crisis-hit Maldives. If China gets a military base in the Maldives, it would endanger not only India’s security interests but also the security of a number of major powers like the United States who have a base in the vicinity in Diego Garcia. China’s militarisation of islands will create a different look of Indian Ocean regions. It might be a reaction to India’s interests in the South China Sea which a weak belly for China.
China is playing its cheque diplomacy. Through the power of donation it is changing the regime of a particular country and trying to establish its likeminded puppet regimes, as it had been done by America during 1960s and 1970s in Africa and Latin American countries. But Chinese scheming would be more suffocating. China is making inroads in many countries by using their armed forces. In fact, the army chief and the military are being used by China to prop-up dictators of its choice. These dictators are used to serve Chinese interests while no international law is violated. Recently, this was seen in Zimbabwe where the regime of Robert Mugabe was toppled with the help of Army Chief.
The external designing of Xi policy is a bit aggressive. It was departure from Deng policy of ‘confining at home and weaving our internal strength’. South China Sea where Xi is very particular to tame any rival country, China is pushing of currency to lure and intimidate the countries that are opposing China. His signature campaign of One Belt One Road is another external showcase in the world. The third one is Tibet, which is directly linked to India. India and China both have a strong leadership, and aggressive approaches which led to standoff in Doklam. The elevation of Xi will be a concern for India. Tibet has been a cause of concern for both the countries. This change is required due to two reasons. First, the new world order, if it is destined to be dictated by China, India will be the worst victim. The rivalry during Cold War between Russia and America was wide and large. The Chinese and Indian borders are clogged. The Chinese nuclear arsenals are located in the spheres of Kham and Amdo which are part of Outer Tibet. This zone is highly militarised. The demolition of buffer zone of Tibet dragged the Dragon near to many corners of India. Therefore Chinese foreign policy as well Chinese nuclear policies are inimical to India in particular and Asia in general.
The Chinese foreign policy is mystery and elevation of Xi further makes it more complex. The heat generated by it will be inimical for India. Tibet and South Asia are on the radar screen of China. Xi has asserted that friend of Dalai Lama is an enemy of China. This is a direct challenge to India. We need to be cautious and ready for further Chinese aggressions. India under Narendra Modi has given several hints since 2014 that India is not going to be bullied. But the time ahead is going to be very bumpy between India and China.
(The writer is Head, Department of Political Science, Central University of Haryana)
Leave a Comment