President Abdulla Yameen has imposed a 15-day state of emergency in Maldives effectively purging the political opponents, judiciary and the Parliament. This grave political crisis was precipitated because of Supreme Court ruling which ordered release of nine opposition leaders including exiled former President Nasheed. The court also reinstated 12 opposition MPs disqualified earlier on trumped up charges, thereby handing the opposition an effective majority in the 85 member Majlis.
Despite the international community’s unanimous backing for the Supreme Court, Yameen has chosen to defy its orders and instead cracked down on all opposition. He has detained not only former President Abdul Gayoum, his half-brother but also arrested two judges including Chief Justice Abdulla Saeed.
Yameen’s action clearly amounts to imposition of dictatorship and military rule. In a strong reaction to these developments, the US Government has held Yameen responsible for having weakened democratic institutions urging him to exercise restraint and uphold rule of law. UK has also called on Yameen to peacefully end the state of emergency.
In response to Abdul Gayoom’s plea on November 3, 1988, the Rajiv Gandhi Government launched ‘Operation Cactus’ and sent Indian troops to protect the Island from the clutches of a hostile coup driven by mercenaries. It is said that it was India’s first overseas mission. The troops soon took control of the airport, and finally came to the rescue of the President Gayoom.”
Beginning of Political Trouble
The political troubles in Maldives began when Nasheed, the first democratically elected President, was deposed by his deputy in February 2012 with the help of military and the police. Nasheed who had strong democratic and human rights credentials chose to step down rather than crack down on the opponents and risk violence. In the 2013 presidential elections even though he secured almost twice as many votes as Yameen in the first round, he lost the elections by a thin margin in the run-off phase raising many eyebrows. Nasheed was subsequently arrested in February 2015 and jailed for 13 years under anti-terrorism laws in what clearly seemed to be a politically motivated move by Yameen to finish Nasheed’s political career.
Chinese Footprints
Ever since Yameen took power in Maldives, he has been testing our patience and PM Modi was forced to drop Maldives from his Indian Ocean tour in March 2015. Yameen has also been playing the China card as a leverage against India. Relationship with China or with any other country is a matter for Maldives to calibrate, but increasing Chinese footprints in Maldives is a matter of serious security concern to us given its strategic location in the Indian Ocean and its proximity to the trade and oil supply routes. There have also been reports of China wanting to set up a naval/military base in one of the Maldivian islands.
Yameen first gave the Male airport upgradation project to a Chinese public sector company during President Xi’s visit to Maldives in Sept 2014. This project valuing US $ 511 million was originally awarded to an Indian firm GMR in 2010 but that contract was cancelled on a flimsy pretext which could not stand legal scrutiny in the arbitration proceedings subsequently as a result of which GMR got a compensation of US $ 270 million.
China has secured several other high value infrastructure and construction projects including ‘Friendship Bridge’ connecting the capital city with the airport island and for building apartments on reclaimed land. Yameen has also confirmed participation of Maldives in China’s Silk Road project which is part of its ambitious OBOR initiative. The looming ‘debt trap’ is evident and Nasheed has already warned about a Sri Lanka type situation emerging where huge accumulated debts sunk in infrastructure projects had to be offset by government handing over the Hambantota port to the Chinese. The interest on the accumulated debt in Maldives already accounts for nearly 20 per cent of the nation’s budget and it may well find it increasingly difficult to service the debt in future. Yameen has also irritated India by signing Free Trade agreement with China in December during his visit to China despite his publicly professed policy of ‘India first’.
Radical Islamic Threat
Increasing Wahabi Islamic influence in Maldives first under Waheed and then Yameen is also a matter of some concern to India. Nasheed supported the moderate form of Islam but for that he was accused as being anti-Islam. Young people returning after Madarasa education in Pakistan come back not only with radical ideology but also jihadist networks. Several hundred Maldivians have joined IS and there is a danger of this island nation being used as a launch pad for terror attacks in India. Worse, it could be used as a refuge for IM and SIMI operatives in the event of a crackdown against them in India.
Yameen has also been whipping up anti-India sentiments in the country. A pro-Yameen Maldivian newspaper published an editorial in December describing PM Modi as a Hindu extremist and anti-Muslim. It went on to characterise India as the ‘biggest enemy nation’ and argued for a “new best friend”” for Maldives to be found in China.
The editorial accused India of plotting a coup against the Yameen government. It also ironically made a critical reference to India acting against international law in Kashmir.
Indian Government has so far reacted with understandable circumspection, merely expressing concern at “the prevailing political developments and the resultant law and order situation” and advising Indian nationals to defer all non-essential travel to Maldives. It is also said to be examining ‘other options’ having kept the military on standby as part of standard operating procedures.
There have been calls for a more robust and assertive Indian approach including by Nasheed who has urged India to “act swiftly” and demand immediate release of judges and all political detainees.
India in Dilemma
India faces a tough dilemma in Maldives. Management of our relations with a neighbouring country is always difficult given inherent sensitivities. There is widespread perception with regard to India’s domination and interference in the internal affairs. Our huge size is naturally overwhelming and any insistence by us on exercising an exclusive influence makes that worse giving rise to suspicions. Even a hint of denying our neighbours their sovereign right to choose their partners is bad enough.
We would do well to remember that while our neighbours are linked to us in a very large measure because of geography, culture and history they still need their own ‘space’ to engage with others for economic development and prosperity of their people. Times have changed and today every country is seeking to optimise its relations with all others and we must show requisite self assurance and pragmatism to change our mindset.
The problem arises from getting too closely associated with one political faction or the other and getting needlessly sucked into the internal political dynamics of a country. Take, for instance, Nepal’s example where we managed to create an impression of being ill disposed to former Prime Minister Oli because of his pro-China leanings and our discomfiture at seeing him returned to power in the recent elections, which forced us to hastily despatch Foeign Minister Sushma Swaraj to Nepal in order to mend fences with that important neighbour.
It is absolutely imperative that India shows an unequivocal willingness to engage and deal with whosoever is in power. This principle applies even more in case of our neighbours given their sensitivities.
In the case of Maldives, we have deliberately and consciously refrained from adopting any strong arm tactics and have sought to engage Yameen despite our obvious dislike of him. But, inaction and being a pathetic bystander in the face of grave provocation could be seen as a sign of weakness. It is a real world we live in and not some ideological cocoon. We would not be taken seriously if we were to shy away from at least ‘showing a resolve’ to act tough to safeguard our key security and national interests. There is always a cost attached to that course of action and asserting one’s big power status. Present situation in Maldives appears to be the best opportunity for us to take a tough posture.
While military intervention in the style of ‘Operation Cactus’ in November 1988, when India landed its troops in Maldives at the express request of President Gayoum to quell the coup attempt by some Tamil militants, may not be called for, at least for the present, India must exercise all other available leverages including threat of sanctions to put pressure on Yameen to immediately release political prisoners and judges. If not checked this time with concrete measures, Yameen would only get further emboldened to chip away on our security and economic interests. Simultaneously, we need to step up the efforts, on an urgent basis, to work with USA and EU to develop an international consensus for restoration of democracy and rule of law. – Virendra Gupta
(The writer is former Indian Ambassador and President of ARSP)
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