Prof P R Kumaraswamy
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s scheduled visit to Israel in early July would be historic and path-breaking. Historic in the sense that it would be the first Prime Ministerial visit from India since the normalisation of relations between the two countries in January 1992, and path-breaking because it offers immense potential for India.
Interestingly, India’s diplomatic relations with Israel were established when Congress Government led by Prime Minister P V Narasimha Rao was in power. However, political contacts with Israel when the Congress was in power, either in the 1990s or during the decade-long UPA Government under Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, were limited. The visit of Israeli President Ezer Weizman took place when Deve Gowda was heading the minority government at the Centre with the outside support of the Congress. Otherwise, the visit of Israeli Foreign Minister Shimon Peres in May 1993 was the only notable exception while the then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh represented India in the funeral of slain Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin in November 1995. After a gap of more than a decade, External Affairs Minister S M Krishna visited Israel in early 2012. Otherwise, political contacts have been quite limited.
This was not the case when the NDA has been in power, either during 1998-2004 or since 2014. In the summer of 2000, Jaswant Singh became the first External Affairs Minister to visit Israel and the same month also saw the visit of Home Minister L K Advani. India hosted Israeli Foreign Minister Silvan Shalom in February 2004. The highlight of the Indo-Israeli relation visit was the visit by Prime Minister Ariel Sharon in September 2003 when Atal Behari Vajpayee rolled out red carpet welcome to the Israeli leader.
During the decade-long UPA rule, political contacts were conspicuous by their absence primarily due to coalition compulsions. The Left parties were demanding ‘course correction’ in India’s ties with Israel and at times even clamouring for reducing military procurements from it.
There is also a political angle to the minimal contacts with Israel. The Indian Union Muslim League, a minor partner in both the UPA Governments, won one seat in 2004 and two in 2009. Despite this, during much of UPA rule its leader E Ahamed served as Minister of State for External Affairs and looked after the West Asian countries but with a notable caveat. Partly due to the ideological orientation of his party and partly due to the interest of migrant community from Kerala in the Gulf region, Ahamed avoided any engagements with Israel. He visited Ramallah a few times but without trying to ‘balance’ them with political contacts with Israel. Thus, despite the normalisation, the Junior Minister was following or was allowed to pursue an ‘independent’ policy towards the West Asia.
Energised ties
Things, however, began to change radically after the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. As results were being announced, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu became the first international leader to call and congratulate Modi on his impending victory. Both the leaders first met in September that year during the annual session of the UN General Assembly and since then have been greeting, tweeting and exchanging good wishes regularly. Two months later in November 2014, Home Minister Rajnath Singh became the first cabinet Minister to visit Israel. The previous visit by an Indian Home Minister had taken place in the July 2000 with LK Advani’s trip.
In October 2015 President Pranab Mukherjee became the first Indian Head of State to visit Israel (he also visited Jordan and Palestine) and addressing the Israeli Knesset, he recalled: “Both India and Israel made parallel struggles against the British.” This was followed by the visits by External Affairs Minister in January 2016. In February 2015 Moshe Ya’alon became the first Israeli Defence Minister to visit India. The following month, Prime Minister Modi met President Reuven Rivlin during the funeral of Lee Kuan Yew, the architect of modern Singapore.
At the same time, contrary to the fears of a section of former diplomats, Modi did not make Israel among his first ports. His visit to Israel comes after he completed three years in office and after making more than 50 foreign trips. Aware of the regional complexities and pressing issues, his engagements with the wider West Asia has been measured and realistic. While he was in Turkey for G-20 summit meeting in November 2014, his maiden State visit to the region was in August 2015 when he visited the United Arab Emirates (UAE). This was followed by his visit to Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Qatar in 2016. While he has yet to visit Egypt, the most populous Arab country, he has hosted President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi twice; first for the India-Africa Forum Summit in October 2015 and subsequently for a State visit in September 2016. He hosted Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas in May this year. In between, he also had other visitors from the region, including Emir Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani of Qatar (March 2015) and Emirati Crown Prince (February 2016) who subsequently came to India as the Chief Guest of the Republic Day celebrations in January 2017.
Modi’s drawn out plans vis-à-vis Israel did not prevent prolonged and animated discussions in the media over his ‘impending’ visit since May 2014 and its possible ‘ramifications’ for India’s interests in the wider West Asia. The Prime Minister had a more holistic view of the picture, and since taking office, he has been energising India’s engagements with the West Asian countries. This had considerably reduced any possible friction or disagreements over his Israel visit. Even the Palestinian leadership appears to have reconciled to his visiting Israel without the customary trip to Ramallah as has been the case since the early 1990s.
The regional dynamics have also silenced much of his domestic critics over his subtle but definite shifts on some of the aspects of traditional Indian policy on the Palestinian cause. Without abandoning the support for the political rights of the Palestinians, India is seeking a more balanced Middle- East policy based on mutual interests and reciprocity. Even among friends, asymmetrical or one-sided relations do not survive for long, and the same is equally valid for nation-states.
High Hopes
The visit will undoubtedly be a highpoint of the bilateral relations and a crowning moment of the silver jubilee celebrations of the normalisation. Confronted with criticism and isolation especially from the Western Europe, Modi’s visit would be comforting not only to the Israeli political leadership but also to its wider public. There is considerable media buzz and think-tanks have been busy discussing the fallouts. Countries near and far from Israel are closely monitoring the proposed visit, especially India’s maturity in balancing the traditional Arab-Israeli dynamics. Even within India, more is being written about the yet-to-take-place visit than about any of Modi’s dozens of foreign trips earlier. The buzz is considerable which makes the stakes high and visible.
As in the case of his other foreign trips, Prime Minister Modi would be addressing a Madison Square-type public event in Israel with the people of Indian origin. The preparatory teams are already in Israel and expectations are that like his appearance in Wembley Stadium with David Cameron, Modi might be joined by Prime Minister Netanyahu.
The media has been reporting that some high-profile military deals would be signed or announced during the visit. Since normalisation of ties between the two nations, Israel has emerged as an important player in India’s defence procurement and modernisation. If it has emerged as the major supplier of technology-incentive critical weapons, India has emerged as the largest market for Israeli military exports. Israel has also expressed its desire and determination to be a part of Prime Minister Modi’s Make in India campaign and has offered to share its expertise. One might see some tangible progress in this direction during his visit.
Technology transfer is critical for Modi’s economic agenda and he could benefit immensely from the Israeli expertise which is not confined only to the military sector but encompasses non-military civilian sectors such as water management, desalination, agriculture, waste recycling, pharmaceutical and rural health. A meaningful and enduring transfer is possible only through Indian investments, especially by the private sector, in key technological companies in Israel, both civilian and military.
There are indications that India is keen to establish a cultural centre in Israel to expose the Israeli youth to its socio-cultural diversity. While a large chunk of Israelis travel to India and are familiar with its culture, music, films, cuisine, there is a considerable gap which can be addressed only by a non-official body. The traditional arrangements under the auspicious of the ICCR are neither sufficient nor conducive to a democracy like Israel where a non-governmental and autonomous body has greater chances of success. Such an arrangement would also reduce the burden on the Indian embassy in Tel Aviv.
Therefore, Prime Minister Modi’s Israel visit would be watched very closely not only within the country but also in the wider West Asia and beyond. The visit signals India”s maturity in dealing with the conflict-ridden region which is also vital to its political, economic and strategic needs. In some ways, Modi’s visit would mark and remind the perennial challenge of balancing India’s vital interest against the backdrop of regional tensions, conflict, and acrimony in the West Asia.
(The writer teaches atCentre for West Asian Studies, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi)
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