Seething anger against uncontrolled crime and politics of appeasement is likely to alter the conventional caste & community equations in Western Uttar Pradesh
Ajay Mittal, Meerut
As the polling days (February 11 and 15) approach, the two most important issues that have emerged in the north and north-west areas of UP comprising of three Commissioneries viz. Meerut, Saharanpur and Moradabad, point to a strong indictment of the State government on the twin issues of uncontrolled crime and politics of appeasement. Appeasement is the favourite game of all secular parties, be it the Congress, Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) or the Samajwadi Party (SP). But it has reached its zenith under Akhilesh Yadav
dispensation. And undeniably it has had a spiralling effect on the deteriorating law-and-order situation in the State as the State Police do not take action against criminals belonging to the biggest minority community that form about one-third of total population of the region. The majority community has been at the receiving end of the onslaught of its communal elements time and again. Even otherwise, the riff-raff, the lumpen and the malefactor have never had it so good as under the SP
government. The widespread opinion that has crystallised into a belief shared by the common man in UP is that the SP is the first resort of scoundrel.
The unabashed policy of appeasement pursued during the last five years has been behind the regular recurrence of incidents of love jihad, cow-smuggling and slaughter, and terrorising the
majority community into fleeing from their homes in areas such as Kairana as well documented in a report of the National Human Rights Commission. People in this part of UP have vivid memories of umpteen instances where administration and police have worked clearly to trample even the just interests of the majority community, insulting and belittling them, and riding roughshod over their sentiments. The resulting
election scene was fraught with extreme dangers for the ruling party. The SP has tried to save itself from a humiliating defeat by forming an alliance with the Congress. This has led to a situation where the minority community may prefer to vote for the duo enmasse brightening to some extent their electoral prospects, although there remain seats where they may vote the BSP candidates too in their usual tactical move to defeat the BJP.
However it would be naive to completely write off the BJP in Muslim areas. The Shias, although a minuscule section of about seven per cent of Muslims here, are well disposed towards it. Similarly, women among the Sunni section of Muslims may see a glimmer of hope in it against the calamity of triple talaq. The Modi Government has been the first one to file an affidavit in the apex court terming this form of divorce as an onslaught on the fundamental rights of Muslim women. Veering round to voting for the BJP on the part of at least a section of Muslim women is going to be a certainty this time. This reporter talked to a victim of triple talaq, now residing at her parental home. She said she, along with her parents and
brothers, will vote for the lotus (symbol of the BJP) this time. The ABP News, not a BJP supporter, has in its latest
survey found that 11 per cent Muslims are going to vote for BJP.
In the last Assembly elections, out of a total of 71 seats in the region, the SP was at the top securing 24, the BSP 21, the BJP 12, the Congress 05 and the Rashtriya Lok Dal 09. During the Lok Sabha polls 2014, the BJP could emerge front-runner in as many as 59 Assembly constituencies. But that was Modi wave. Opinion may differ due to
demonetisation this time. The situation is limping back to normalcy. As of now, Modi and the BJP don’t appear to be
losers on this score. By and large, people favour it. They agree that it was a necessary attack on funding of terror and the evil of black money.
Party Rebels
All the political parties in the fray are face to face with a line of rebels many of whom are contesting as independents, others on rival parties’ tickets, and some are opposing the official candidates silently from within. By far, the BJP seems to be the least affected as it has succeeded in quelling the sporadic revolts here and there more deftly.
Caste Considerations
Caste has been one of the prime moving factors for UP voters elections after elections. Its shackles were broken once during the Sri Ram Temple Movement in 1990’s, and then during the Modi phenomenon of 2014. This time around, many Hindus, cutting across caste barriers, being victims of crimes aided and abetted by blind politics of appeasement, are making common cause to bring about a change. The situation is such that when Yogi Adityanath said in a public speech here the other day, that western UP resembles the Kashmir Valley of 1990’s, people tended to agree. When the BJP included in its Resolution Paper (sankalp patra) a promise that all FIRs will be registered and acted upon by the police
without consideration of religion or caste, the
common man hailed it. At present, as even a number of judgments of the Allahabad High Court would expressly indicate, the UP Police, under of course verbal instructions of their political masters, don’t take cognisance of, or even registers heinous crimes against a particular community.
Corruption, misgovernance and other issues
There are of course other issues too in the air which agitate people’s minds. An engineer working in the Public Works Department of the Sstate government told this reporter, on promise of anonymity, that in UP, the cost of constructing a
kilometre of road comes to 31 crore whereas the Modi government get the job done by spending only 18 crore for even a better quality road. Similar is the allegation that UP purchases, and distributes electricity to the consumers at a far higher rate than any other State. It can, but it won’t buy
cheaper power from the Centre. The reason is not far to seek. It is the lure of commission in-built in the former transactions made with private suppliers. The theft of electricity, euphemistically called line-losses, in the State is as high as 33.82 per cent. Not just pure misgovernance, but political ‘investment’ to keep certain sections especially a particular community happy, as the wags put it. The power-theft has always been found to be most pronounced in localities inhabited by this section. A scheme launched by Akhilesh Government to supply power to weavers at highly subsidised rates has been put to massive misuse right under the nose of powers that be. This, too, benefited the same section to the tunes of some thousands of crores at the expense of State’s exchequer. No administrative or penal action was taken against anybody when the scheme was quietly shelved.
BJP well poised
The SP-Congress alliance has made some ripples in the political pond of UP. No doubt some advantage will accrue in terms of number of seats to both the partners, but the two won’t be able to transfer own vote to the other fully. The enigma of what Mulayam Singh and Shiv Pal Singh will do vis-a-vis the alliance remains to be unfolded.
34 seats of the total 71 would go to polls on February 11, while others will have polling on the 15th. The safest
prediction at present about the likely results is that the BJP may secure a
simple majority of these seats. The
contest between the alliance and the BSP will be for the second place, the RLD being left at a distant fourth place. n
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