Opinion :IS Surrogacy in Bharat?

Strange things happen in the world of transnational terrorism. Since December 2008 Bharateeya intelligence agencies have virtually kept the nation free of major terror strikes through timely intelligence and assistance in implementation of counter terror operations.

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Feb 1, 2016, 12:26 pm IST

The efforts to establish IS modules nationwide with much emphasis on communally fragile states such as Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Andhra Pradesh. This is potentially extremely dangerous as Daesh is unlikely to await full blown capability before demonstration of its reach and levels of penetration

Strange things happen in the world of transnational terrorism. Since December 2008 Bharateeya intelligence agencies have virtually kept the nation free of major terror strikes through timely intelligence and assistance in implementation of counter terror operations. However in recent weeks a resurgence of Islamic terror appears evident. Not necessarily linked to the Pathankot strike by elements sponsored from across the border but a separate thread of terror activities linked with Islamic State (Daesh), appears becoming evident. This is important to review in the light of the fact that most analysis, including my earlier ones, had discounted the feasibility of early inroads by Daesh into Bharat. Sporadic cases of support through social media had come to light and some had attempted to escape the shores of the nation to become a part of Daesh. However, given Bharat’s successful integration of Muslims, the past failure of the al-Qaida to make inroads into recruitment or involvement in anti-national activities and the absence of links between Pakistan’s intelligence agency ISI and Daesh, all appeared to point towards relative potential failure of Daesh to shift its focus in any decided way towards Bharat. Yet, from online motivation and technical support the threat appears to have moved on to the creation of terror modules on the pattern that Indian Mujahideen had conceptualised. 14 young Muslims across the country have been arrested on suspicion of being involved in activity linked to Daesh. Handlers of the same are all believed to be in the West Asia.
There is no doubt that Daesh considers much of Bharateeya territory as being a part of Khorasan which it wishes to recapture as part of the Ghazwa-e-Hind campaign (the campaign/battle for Hind or Bharat). The concept which Daesh has followed elsewhere is to establish reliable surrogates with full loyalty and extend moral support to them under the pan Salafi flag; Somalia, Sudan, Sinai, Libya and Nigeria are all a part of Daesh’s expansion plans where it is nurturing situations to obtain full scale support in future. While examining Bangladesh’s situation there prevailed a western perception that Bangladesh was likely to go under and Daesh has already commenced the fires. I discounted this theory on grounds that Daesh will not wish to expand beyond a ‘limit’ because that would severely affect its ability to sustain the campaign. That limit was appreciated to be Afghanistan.
With the busting of the module which was attempting to target the Magh Mela at Haridwar the theory of ‘limits in the Daesh strategy’ seems to be belied. It also appears that the efforts to establish modules nation wide with much emphasis on communally fragile states such as Uttar Pradesh, Uttarkhand and Andhra Pradesh. This is potentially extremely dangerous as Daesh is unlikely to await full blown capability before demonstration of its reach and levels of penetration. The problem is therefore right there and it’s upon us upfront; denying it will only limit our capability to act against it and to secure ourselves.
Bharat’s 180 million Muslims is decidedly the most peaceful segment of that faith anywhere in the world. Yet it is only a miniscule number of radically affected ones who are sufficient for Daesh to seed greater radical belief and spread mayhem. Daesh’s strategy is the spread of turbulence and chaos through society in order to reform it on Islamic lines. Even more important than that is the short term strategy of making its presence and outreach felt universally especially in what it may perceive as fragile zones where diverse communities exist. To counter both strategies it is necessary to strengthen intelligence particularly in the technical field because much of the pickups will emerge from communications through social media or just the Internet. We need deep data mining capability of a higher order and for that our software industry needs to rise to the occasion because shared technology from abroad will always be less than optimum in quality. There is a need to penetrate the minority pockets taking care that this has to be done with refined techniques of surveillance both technical and human to obtain early signs of emerging modules. While radicalisation itself is a threat, it is the manifestation into execution capability which overrides the issue of radical ideology. Counter radicalisation which the government has already undertaken is a long term strategy and must continue with imaginative techniques information on which must be shared and cooperation established with other nations suffering from the problem. Indonesia is one such country with whom such cooperation is essential.
Perhaps the most important element of nipping radicalisation and returning affected youth to the path of moderation is the role of the clergy. Bharat’s Muslim clergy has come out strongly with messages against Daesh but the occasions this has happened are infrequent. We need a robust spread of information about how the clergy frowns upon this and considers it unIslamic. This means more frequent utterances at Friday prayers especially at the closed door ones in walled city areas where the minority community exists in large clusters. Members of the clergy are usually reluctant to step out and take initiative fearing ostracisation by more rabid and radical elements within. They have to be encouraged and motivated to do so. The media’s cooperation is also essential as the victim status of affected elements is easily thrown up which has to be resisted.

From IT to Terror Hub

Bengaluru has had a special place in the map of Bharat and from the past two decades, even of the world. However, Bengaluru, with such huge urban agglomeration has its set of woes to this list of post-modern woes, terrorism has unfortunately crept in.
Bengaluru had its first serious brush with terrorism when few Churches of Bangalore were targeted with bombs in 2000 by persons said to be followers of an organisation called Deendar Anjuman. Then there was a series of attacks first in IISC campus in 2005 then low entensity blasts of 2008 and attacks in 2013 and 2014 in front of BJP state Office and Church Street respectively.
When Bengaluru was just about forgetting these horrendous incidents and recovering from the news reports of the Pathankot terrorist attack, NIA/Delhi sleuths landed in Bengaluru on January 8, 2016 and arrested a Muslim Cleric Maulana Anzar Shah Qasmi, who is said to have been associated with al-Qaeda in Bharateeya Subcontinent (AQIS). After this, in one more pre-dawn raid, NIA sleuths arrested 4 suspected terrorists—Sohail Ahmed, Mohammed Afzal, Mohammed Afzal, Asif Ali from Bengaluru on January 22 and one each from Tumkur-Syed Mujahid and Mangalore-Najmul Huda. One Rafique Khan was arrested by Telangana Special Branch on January 23. He is said to be the mastermind of Ahmedabad blasts of 2008. The said arrests have said to been made on the basis of the information gathered from the arrested Muslim Cleric Maulana Anzar Sha Qasmi. This anti-terrorist operation is part of an all-Bharat operation, wherein many more persons have been arrested from Mumbai, Patna, Hyderabad, etc. who were planning on major terror attacks all over Bharat during the Republic Day.
The arrests have brought out the dirty under-belly of the hip-hop Bengaluru. Youths, who are well educated and having good jobs have been caught for their links to deadly terrorist organisations and for their plans of committing terroritst attacks.
Saudi funded Madrasas have cropped up in the whole of the coastal belt of Karnataka and making headway in interior Karnataka. Bengaluru, which has always had a cosmopolitan character, is now witness to ghettos where hijab is being enforced on girls as young as 5 years. Young children in large numbers are seen wearing skull caps and cut-short pants. Wearing religion on the sleeves has become rampant and common, which was hitherto very uncommon in Bengaluru.
Terrorism today is being carried in the name of religion. Religious texts are quoted to instigate youths. To the brain-washed and radicalised youth, the bonds of the earth and the emotional connect of the human beings are nothing but a farce, only to be cut mercilessly to propitiate the ‘one and only’ God.
Vikram Phadke (The writer is a Bengaluru based Lawyer)

Measures to counter Daesh influence and control will necessarily be sensitive and it is easy for anti-national elements to seize moments to paint the actions of intelligence agencies as anti minority. This is where the political angle emerges and it is Bharat’s political maturity and experience of democracy which must come the fore. Encouragement to patriotic members of the community, creation of role models and projection of the freedom enjoyed under our system need to be projected without allowing minority or majority bashing by political elements. The element of national interest involved in securing the minority community from being influenced by extraneous ideology, which is alien to Bharat’s established norms of respect for diversity, has to be brought forth without political coloring.

Ultras’ hit Arunachal Politics Again

“Arunachal politicians are in touch with the rebel group, NSCN (Isaac-Muivah)”– thus, read few media reports in December, 2015 when political crisis was peaking in the frontier state. However, on January 28, 2016 with national dailies accessing the Governor’s report recommending the President’s Rule, this time around, the culprit has been identified as the former Chief Minister Nabam Tuki.
Amidst current political crisis, as I write this article, a young man is yet to return home even after month and a half in captivity almost as a pawn in a game of political chess board. The young man is held captive in a non-descriptive location somewhere across the international border in Burma. The only crime of this young man, if one is allowed to call it so, happens to be that his uncle is a Congress rebel legislator from newly carved out district of Longding and is opposing Nabam Tuki’s leadership. The rebel MLA, Honchun Ngamdam has filed an FIR against Tuki and another legislator Tirong Aboh for the kidnapping so as to put pressure on him to switch allegiance.
It is learnt that, not only the family members who are pained and upset about the missing young man but NSCN (Khaplang) too hasn’t taken it kindly since IM faction has treaded into K’s turf in Longding district.
Such involvement of the ultras in power-struggle is not a new phenomenon; but goes back to the late 1990’s when the ultras appeared in the scene as political mercenaries to topple government. An unthinkable event took place on January 18, 1999, when Mukut Mithi pulled the rug off Gegong Apang’s feet, who was well on course to become the longest surviving chief minister surpassing the then West Bengal chief minister Jyoti Basu. The defeated Apang had alleged that Mithi’s political coup was achieved on the strength of a nexus between the Tirap-Changlang political leaders and the NSCN (Khaplang). But even before the completion of a full term, Apang drew blood despite being the lone legislator of a regional outfit. He paid back in the same coin to Congress chief minister Mithi through a well-orchestrated coup in July 2003. Like a replayed tape, Mithi alleged Apang to have paid Rs 5 crore to the NSCN ultras. But, as expected, Apang refuted the allegation.
These are parts of political folklores. Another dimension to the folklores is: who imported these ultras from Nagaland to Arunachal Pradesh?
The political corridors, social circles and academia have always credited two cousins, L Wanglat and TL Rajkumar, for sowing the seeds of NSCN (IM) & NSCN (K) respectively in Tirap. But, to be fair to them, like many other political leaders from that region, in all likelihood they might have hobnobbed, might have been to Camp Hebron, and might have paid huge sum for safety and security. If at all, those cardinal ‘error of judgments’ led the politicians to hobnobbing, ritualistic ‘summoned tour’ to headquarter, paying-up; then, they all did it discreetly in earlier days. However, with ceasefire declared between the rebel groups and Indian Armies, limited applicability within Nagaland against the conventional trend; and this ceasefire agreement is non-existent for the same rebel groups, on the edges and outside of eastern border of Nagaland into the parts of Arunachal Pradesh. Thus, one can count more than 12 legislators plus at least couple of more senior politicians from Lohit and other parts of Arunachal who are in indiscreet contacts with the NSCN cadres and their interactions over phone are matter of records.
Former Home Minister L Wanglat who himself is a catholic Christian and has lost several of his kiths and kin to the violence of these ultras, narrated that the seed of NSCNs’ presence in Arunachal Pradesh was sown in the first half of 1990s by a pastor called “Mua Baba” of Baptist denomination, a denomination to which both “IM” and “K” owe their allegiance.
Mua Baba, it is said, motivated and sent the first batch of 12 young men across the border of Patkai Hills into Kachin Hills for arms training under the tutelage of IM faction. But Baba’s affinity to the IM faction did not go down well with Khaplang faction. Bitter wounds of rivalries between both the groups, after the differences borne out of Shillong Accord of April 30, 1988, were still fresh. And for Baba’s quixotic adventure, he had to pay the price. Reportedly, Khaplang faction did not take this ‘impartiality’ kindly. It is narrated, mind you-there is no proof like ‘still-photos’ or ‘video recordings’, the pastor was tortured in an archaic fashion: he was hanged in an electric pole, in front of entire village folks of Otongkhua in Tirap district which is about 30 kms from its headquarters, Khonsa. Baba was skinned to death in a torturous way so goes the tale. This torture ended with his death on third day.
That was the beginning of dark-period. With passage of time, Myanmar’s Hemi Naga, SS Khaplang roped in more Nocte Naga cadres from Arunachal Pradesh than he could manage from Nagas from Manipur or Nagaland. On the other hand, Tangkhul Naga from Manipur, Th. Muivah and Sema Naga from Nagaland, Isaac Chisi Swu had more Indian Nagas put-together. But NSCN (IM) too started making inroads into Tirap, slowly and steadily; initially with cadres from Nagaland & Manipur but later with Nocte Nagas.
With passage of time, turfs are demarcated as Changlang and Longding for ‘K’ and Tirap for ‘IM’. Ever since then, the entire Arunachal is carrying the burdens of bedlam.
Jarpum Gamlin (The writer is former Corporate Executive turned publisher @EasternSentinel)

The Daesh threat is real and it is live. However, it is still in nascent stages. Daesh itself is running low on finances after the targeting of its energy networks; it has recently halved the payments it makes to its fighters. Our intelligence agencies need to be alive to the ways of financial conduits spinning webs and must endeavour to be a part of international efforts towards preventing their proliferation. The drugs and narcotics networks will make efforts to assist Daesh in its efforts to move its area of operations to lucrative zones where it perceives existence of disaffected Muslims. Bharat’s Muslim community does not fit that bill and that projection needs to be made very clear through very deliberate and visible actions both by community leaders and the Government.
There is no counter measure as strong as education. It must be made evident to Bharat’s Muslim community that it exists in one of the most harmonious conditions and that ideologies such as that of Daesh can only upset that state of harmony. Chaos and turbulence being synonymous with Daesh ideology is not synchronous with interests of a community which continues to progressively improve the lot of its members. This education has to be delivered through outreach to the community and not to the youth alone.
Lastly, what is missing is an apex level organisation which can advise the government from time to time on how to manage perception and psychologically secure our communities. The Government must consider this suggestion made many times over that a body of eminent and experience people with diverse backgrounds must come together to advise it on how to handle such issues as communal disharmony, threats to integrity and radicalisation.
Lt Gen Syed Ata Hasnain (The writer is an ex-GOC of the Srinagar based IS Corps)