Cover Story: Defogging Delhi
The National Capital has been experiencing the fog of instability and anarchy since December 2013. In the coming Assembly elections, Delhi hopes to get rid of this political fog.
When there is chilling winter in Delhi, the election commission announced the Assembly Election date of 7th February to get rid of one year political fog from this city-state. It was expected as no party has managed to form the Government. during the suspended animation of Delhi Assembly but the election schedule has surprised many because it has given too short time for all preparation to the Parties. The real surprise which was partially hovering in the sky has come from the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) when it took Kiran Bedi first as a member and within a week, projected Chief Minister candidate. The desperation of Aam Admi Party (AAP) to come into power mainly to correct its lost opportunity to remain in the power has faced a jolt. The BJP has come up with sword which was earlier one of the main weapon of that movement from which AAP is emerged. It is like iron sharpens iron. And now the social media posts compare 'Cop vs Cough'.
AAP does not have the luxury of political tradition. It was initially a revolution against corruption and corrupt politicians. It saw everybody hands in dirt and so, it has become utopian and coupled with the fact that it sought revolutionary solutions only through politics.
Finally, it became more utopian. However, no one can discard its presence and methods of political course. The mistake lies only in less patience that is shown in the journey from Delhi to Varanasi and again from Prime Minister (PM) to Chief Minister (CM). Arvind Kejriwal lost the election against Modi in Varanasi but amidst the Modi wave, his Party has increased its vote share in Delhi even without taking lead in any Assembly segment in 2014 Parliamentary Election.
In defogging the Delhi Assembly Elections 2015, Organiser spoke to Delhiites from different Parliamentary Constituencies to list out the issues crucial for them. Kiran Ji made a huge contribution to ‘India against corruption’, she will provide a very clean and efficient administration.—Shanti Bhushan Founder Member, AAP Shanti Bhushan's statement is unfortunate. He has been unhappy from the party for sometime what he has expressed are his personal views this matter should have been discussed in the party.—Ashutosh, AAP leader |
AAP got 29.7 per cent vote share in 2013 Assembly Election and it has increased its vote share by 3.4 per cent in 2014 Parliamentary Election when it got 33.1 per cent votes. In this election, it has again damaged heavily Congress which came down by 9.5 per cent from its vote share of 2013 Assembly election. The BJP has jumped well by getting all seven Parliamentary seats and vote share is increased from 33.3 per cent of 2013 to 46.6 per cent in 2014 election. In other words, BJP gained more than 13 per cent vote share compared to its vote share in 2013 election.
| Ankit Dahiya—Uttam Nagar :“It is unfortunate that Delhi is facing bad politics of AAP. Electricity and Roads are the key issues and to get rid of them, I will surely vote for BJP.” | |
| Pradeep Singh—Nangloi Jat: “Kejriwal is opportunist as he resigned as Chief Minister of Delhi to become the PrimeMinister of India. AAP has fooled Delhi once but not this time.” | |
| Bhumika Chugh—Model Town: “I think price hike is fine but only if it’s proportional to salary paid to people. And, basic things are getting costlier so it’s very hard to save anything.” | |
| Gaurav Kumar—Gokalpur :””I will support a strong developmental agenda of the political parties in Delhi and if that would not be there, then I’ll opt for NOTA.” | |
| Megha Garg—Pitampura: “According to me the key issues are price rise and women security and I will prefer a woman CM who can be strict and can understand the problems of women.” | |
Jyoti Prakash—Chattarpur: “Prices of vegetables and FMCG products are going up. I support AAP because from Day 1 it is against prise hike and supporting layman.” (Compiled by Monica Sangwan |
Based on 2014 Parliamentary Election, BJP has registered its lead in 60 Assembly segments out of total 70 seats. If that trend will persist, BJP will get the historic majority to form the Govt. in Delhi but there is no precedent for the same. The wave is always fluctuating in politics and it does not remain same when matters for Assembly election which is loaded with more populist promises and local issues unlike the emotional tones on foreign policy when there is Parliamentary election.
So, the BJP has to be conscious though its winning trend does not stop so far keeping in view the performance in Maharashtra, Haryana, Jharkhand and partially in Jammu and Kashmir.
The local issues with the promises of low rate of electricity, free wi-fi, corruption free local administration and so on and so forth may give the sustenance of AAP. BJP has to prove itself more in the slum areas and among lower income groups where AAP has rooted out Congress. For instance, AAP has taken 9 seats out of total 12 SC seats in 2013 election. BJP has performed well only in two seats though in Parliamentary election, it has taken lead in 8 SC seats.
Almost all the pre-poll survey predicts the last winter for AAP and some like India Today-Cicero predicts the revival of Congress. If AAP will not strengthen its organization which is seen in the mass exodus of its leaders to BJP, the Congress may regain its lost ground because it has still the luxury of old grass-root organisation in every parts of Delhi. The only difficulty with Congress is a lack of leadership and indecisiveness of top leaders. But it is certain that in the case of revival of Congress, the damage will only go to AAP as all opinion survey indicates now.
 I believe Kiran Ji will fulfill the aspirations of the people of Delhi and bring victory for the BJP. The party has launched a massive membership drive to bring in new faces. We have to give place to them in the party.—Amit Shah, National President, BJP |
The appeal of AAP and Kejriwal is faded among lower middle class but still intact in lower class which symbolizes them with broom. The last Assembly election scenario of dark horse does not seem to help it because it now no more in dark. In New Delhi seat in 2013, there were very few pollsters predicting Kejriwal win against Sheila Dikshit and now it may reverse the course in the same way in the same seat. It is because of the fact that in last one year, the formula, promises and slogans have come into oblivion. There is new hope, new issue and coming historic Indian strength display on Rajpath in front of Barack Obama, with which Indian youth identifies themselves. Corruption is an issue that solution does not lie in frustration but to raise the new standards, that is now Modi Mantra. If it works, AAP will see last winter, the new definition of anti-establishment politics will unfortunately dispersed, even not die.
Naveen Kumar (The writer is a senior political analyst and VP of Viplav Communications Pvt Ltd.)
