By-Elections: Decoding By-Polls 

Intro: The results of recent Assembly Polls in Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan are ringing alarming bells for the Bharatiya Janata Party.
It is frequently quoted that the State Assembly elections are fought on separate issues, and these elections are usually in support of the ruling party. Shadowing party’s latter-day unimpressive performance in Uttarakhand, later Karnataka and recently Bihar under the same veil of reasoning, the latest by-poll results for the states of Uttar Pradesh, Gujarat and Rajasthan must ring the alarming bells for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The same state that garlanded Modi to Lok Sabha with a 71/80 in Lok Sabha Elections has given a staggering mandate to Samajwadi Party (SP). Till recently, SP has been widely denounced for being unable to curb lawlessness in Uttar Pradesh. But then, with 8 seats out of 11 being endowed to it by the electorate – it seems that amidst atmospheric self-complacency, BJP found the rivals too callow to beat its adored entry into the parliament – thereby landing up with just 3 seats.

While, the party had sensed the sly when conflicting rivals like Lalu-Nitish came in unison on the political turf in Bihar, ignorance led to mis-judge the implications of Mayawati’s Bahujan Samajwadi Party (BSP) backing out of the election and Congress releasing dummy candidates on the pitch. Expectedly, Muslim and dalit votes of BSP consolidated to favour SP that already possessed strong-hold of Yadav voters. Taking a note of caution from the above-like untimely and sudden political comradeship, the party must prepare for the forthcoming in an attentive fashion that does not steer away from the development agenda for all.
As if losing of National Democratic Alliance’s (NDA) Apna Dal on Rohania seat of Varanasi Constituency was not big a jolt, the party has further shocked the political corners by losing out in home-ruled states of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Surrendering 3 out of 4 seats in Rajasthan and another 3 seats in Gujarat to Congress, the mandate must now be subjective to introspection and lesson taking. One of that can be to match the local caste equations and selecting ‘apt’ candidates to contest the elections.

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While it will be injustice to drop the onus on the Centre for the defeat, considering that it still has more than 4 years to perform. Meanwhile, the half-filled glass can be the poll win in West Bengal and Assam. Assessingly, BJP now has it’s maiden MLA in the West Bengal Assembly after 15 years.
Lest to forget the voter turnaround this season being averaged to 40 per cent as compared to the national average of 60-65 per cent in the Lok Sabha Elections. This 20-25 per cent margin has been the deciding factor for these by-poll results. Also, these diminishing numbers point out to complacency factor amidst the voters as well. Many did not vote considering that there’s no harm to Modi Government and the by-polls aren't going to change the power status of current SP Government anyway.
Moreover, as Haryana and Maharashtra prepare to face election beats in mere 4 weeks from now, it will now be more crucial for BJP to win these assembly elections and convert this momentary jubilation of opposition into a short lived affair.                                                               -Divyansh Dev