An Early Thaw in Indo-Pak Relations is Improbable
Pakistan has been following the Indian elections and political scenario with a fair degree of interest. Daily happenings have been and continue to be reported in major news channels and newspapers of the nation; and, prominent columnists have been writing on the developments regularly. Once the election results were announced, a flurry of opinion was generated on the emergence of Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) as the main contender to form the next government and positioning of Narendra Modi as Prime Minister. Yet another chapter of brisk debate and discussion was opened by the invite sent by Modi to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif to attend the swearing-in ceremony of the new government and of its acceptance by the latter.
In a talk show held in Pakistan’s Dawn Television on the night when Modi swept the polls in India, Zafar Hilaly, a retired diplomat of the country remarked, “Thank God Jinnah created a new country for Muslims called Pakistan. At least we got away.” This is, in essence, the thought process in Pakistan at the moment.
Pakistani columnists have been at pains to project a Hindu-nationalist identity for Modi and link it with a possible threat to the Muslims of India. It has been widely opined that, notwithstanding efforts to bring Muslims on board, a bulk of the community as also “other minorities” are wary of the hawkish Hindu support base which has led BJP and Modi to power. Particularly astounding is a widespread assertion that the Modi government is likely to look upon all Indian Muslims as agents of Pakistan. Another unique argument relates to the effect that the new government in Delhi will have on Pakistan’s already tottering economy.
With India getting poised for an economic turnover under the new government many in Pakistan have expressed fears about the widening economic divide between the two countries and the feeling of frustration that the same would generate in the teeming millions staring at a bleak future in Pakistan.
While the English press in Pakistan attempted to take a balanced view, the Urdu press was out-rightly combative. Hate speeches by a number of fundamentalist leaders like Jamat-ud-Dawa chief Hafiz Saeed, former ISI chief Hamid Gul, and Amir Hamza (one of the most important leaders of the Pakistan-based JuD terrorist group) etc. have been carried by the Urdu press to build an anti-India, anti-BJP, anti-Modi hysteria.
These leaders have predicted that BJP will give a free hand to military commanders along the line of control to up the military face-off between the two Nations. They have expressed the need to form a union of Muslims like the European Union, with its own defence, markets, currency etc., to counter India, and have openly given a call for support to Indian Muslims who, they say, will be suppressed by the new government. So far as Kashmir is concerned they have been saying that the “Mujahedeen” operating there are now getting active support of the people.
Contrary to this many in Pakistan are also expressing concern over the prospect of the Modi government developing a positive relationship with the US, Israel and Japan. This, Pakistani experts say, will lead to enhanced military and economic cooperation between these power blocs to the detriment of Pakistan.
Media across Pakistan was prolific in its advice to PM Nawaz Sharif not to be hasty in accepting the invite for the swearing-in ceremony. It was insinuated that the invite, by itself, was a patronising gesture that should be dealt with diplomatic means rather than an immediate acceptance.
Nawaz Sharif had to seek approval from the army before consenting to attend the ceremony. But post the swearing-in and meeting between the leaders of the two countries, the Pakistan media has resorted to a slightly conciliatory tone and tenor. It is apparent from this that many in Pakistan look upon the BJP government with distrust and suspicion, and the Pakistan Army and the fundamentalist forces will do everything possible to build on this distrust. Under these circumstances to expect an early thaw in relations between the two countries would by rather simplistic. But Nawaj Sharif's presence in the swearing-in as an effort to better ties with India, is a good enough reason to be optimistic.
-Jaibans Singh
