An unprecedented enthusiasm is being witnessed all over the state in favour of the Bharatiya Janata Party and its Prime Ministerial candidate Narendra Modi. Lucknow constituency is no exception. No wonder, BJP president Rajnath Singh has emerged as a formidable candidate, having clear edge over all his rivals – Rita Joshi of Congress, Abhishek Mishra of Samajwadi Party and Nakul Dube of Bahujan Samaj Party. In popularity, acceptance and support none of them reach anywhere near Rajnath Singh.
The city’s Mayor Dinesh Sharma is also a BJP nominee, who had himself won the seat with a large margin.
In the past, Lucknow Lok Sabha constituency was represented several terms by Shri Atal Behari Vajpayee who made Lucknow proud by his glorious achievements while he ran the government and also he sat in the Lok Sabha as Leader of Opposition. Last time, when he didn’t contest, his close aide Lalji Tandon was given ticket and he moved around humbly ‘carrying the sandals’ of Atalji and won the seat with no difficulty. And this time, party chose to field its national president Rajnath Singh who had been not only the Chief Minister of the State but also the president of the party’s State unit in the past.
Rajnath Singh considers Lucknow as his home, although he was born in Chandauli district near Varanasi and served as Professor of Physics in KB Postgraduate College, Mirzapur. He shot into lime-light for the first time when he introduced the anti-Copying Ordinance in Uttar Pradesh while he was the Education Minister of Uttar Pradesh during 1992-93. He had proved his administrative acumen then.
While enjoying the confidence of people cutting across all castes and sub-castes, Rajnath Singh has also got the support of numerous clerics too, which is rare phenomenon witnessed in these polls. One Shia religious leader Kalbe Javvad stunned the pseudo-secularists of the State, when while lauding Rajnath Singh, he went to the extent of saying that Rajnath’s liberal and all-embracing character raises him to the level of former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee. The BJP’s president promises to develop Lucknow in the same way as was done by Atalji, and this seems convincing to the people because they know that being the party president he will be in position to influence the union government led by Modiji in favour of Lucknow as and when needed. No doubt, in the past there have been caste equations controlling the political dynamics of the city, but the Modi wave seems to have swept it all and people everywhere are singing the praises of Modi-Rajnath duo. In fact, people admire Rajnath Singh because they feel that Rajnath Singh has been instrumental in projecting Modiji as the Prime Ministerial candidate and that move has boosted up the prospects of BJP in the country.
People are also fed up of the caste and communal politics of the SP and BSP politics, and they are looking forward to a better future under the BJP rule, which can revamp the administration and wipe out all corruption witnessed during the Congress rule at the Centre, as well as BSP and SP rule in the State. The large gatherings being witnessed in the public meetings of Rajnath Singh is a clear evidence of his growing popularity and acceptance amongst the voters of Lucknow. Senior journalist MJ Akbar, General VK Singh, Dalit leader Udit Raj, Management Guru Shiv Kheda and several other renowned figures visited the constituency, appealing to the people to vote for Rajnath Singh.
–Dr Shakti Kumar Pandey from Lucknow
Heading for Political Realignment
Maharashtra has 48 Lok Sabha seats. Apart from the Congress- Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) combine that currently dominates the political canvas in the state, the other political alliance in the state is that of the Bharatiya Janata Party and, Shiv Sena, the nationalist party led by Uddhav Thackeray, son of late Bal Thackeray who was the founder of the party. And the newly formed Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), formed by Raj Thackeray has existed without any formal alliance with the national parties till now.
Whether these political alliances will go for a divorce, or not, will largely depend on the outcome of the 2014 polls which is expected to have an impact in the politics of the state that would be electing its new government in September this year.
The BJP-Shiv Sena combine rode to power in 1995 in the state. Since then the right-wing alliance could not grab the power seat. Meanwhile, the Shiv Sena faced division when Raj Thackeray, nephew of the legendery Balasaheb Thackeray split the party and formed his own party in the name of Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS).
After MNS came into existence, there is a debate as to who should, or, will be the inheritor of the late Balasaheb Thackeray’s legacy – his son Uddhav or nephew Raj?
But the latest fodder for speculation came after BJP president Nitin Gadkari met Raj Thackeray to discuss with him the strategy to avoid split in the anti-Congress votes in Maharashtra. They both seemingly agreed to this and Raj has shown his support by declaring his party’s support for Narendra Modi as the next Prime Minister of India. In a series of television interviews, he has repeatedly maintained his stand in supporting Modi. MNS’s support for the BJP was also reflected in the party’s decision to field only two candidates against BJP candidates. The MNS is contesting a total of nine seats, including seven where the Shiv Sena will contest under its seat sharing arrangement with the BJP.
This possibility has put the political pundits and observers at work to find out the new emerging political permutations and combinations in the state. Will Raj Thackeray enter into any alliance with the BJP post LS polls or will Uddhav Thackeray’s Shiv Sena tread with Sharad Pawar’s NCP?
Speculations are rife over the possible future role of Sharad Pawar, the Maratha strongman of the Sugar belt of Maharashtra and the NCP chief who at present is in alliance with the Congress. There is a possibility of NCP moving closer to NDA if the Congress party fares badly in the LS polls.
For the outcome, one will have to wait till May 16, the D-Day, when the results of the elections will be declared and when the future of many regional parties including the MNS, Shiv Sena, and NCP will be decided.
In the current polls, the Congress is contesting 27 seats and NCP the remaining 21. The NCP gave its Hathkanangale seat to the Congress. The BJP is contesting 24 and Sena 20 and the rest are being contested by their allies.
The common people are more concerned about their hassle-free life in days to come. There is a subtle current of public ire that might change the outcome of the results of Lok Sabha polls. Two phases of polling have already been over in Maharashtra. The remaining phase will be on April 24. Till then the observers will have to contain themselves with speculations only.
-Virag Pachpore
‘Poribartan’ on Cards
“If its president Rajnath Singh is to be believed, the party, which was only a marginal force in Bengal so far, is already thinking beyond the Lok Sabha polls and about playing a crucial role in the 2016 Assembly polls in the State.”
The prospect of BJP winning more and more Lok Sabha seats in the coming election is getting brighter and brighter. Only on April 17, the first phase of election in West Bengal had taken place. Elections in the remaining four phases will end by May 12.
In his second phase of election tour of eastern India BJP president Rajnath Singh declared that BJP is going to win 10 Lok Sabha seats from West Bengal. Newspapers like Aajkaal in its political analysis column has written that BJP, in the State, is going to win around five Lok Sabha seats. Exit poll surveys have already declared, after the first phase of election in the State that BJP candidate from Darjeeling constituency Shri SS Ahluwalia is going to win ‘hands down’.The same newspaper in its constituency wise survey has said the BJP candidate are expected to get minimum 1 lakh or more votes in Balurghat, Raigunj, Jangipur, Coachbehar, Bongaon, Barrackpore, Joynagar. Kolkata (North), Howrah and Srirampore. BJP leaders says that Dum Dum constituency will fetch more than two lakh votes for BJP. According to the newspaper for BJP the expected winning constituencies will be Darjeeling, Asansol (Babul Supriya). Basirhat (Shamik Bhattacharya), Krishnagar (Satyabrata Mukherjee), Dum Dum (Tapan Sikdar) and Jangipur.
In 2009, according to BJP sources, in Krishnanagar, BJP candidate Satyabrata Mukherjee got 1.75 lakh votes. This was when the Congress and Trinamool Congress had an alliance. This time that factor is absent and BJP leaders claim that much of the sheen of actor-turned-MP Tapas Pal has worn off.
Another Lok Sabha constituency is Alipurduar, where the BJP had got almost 2 lakh votes in 2009. This time such outfits as the Adivasi Vikash Parishad and Jharkhand Party are supporting the BJP in this constituency. “In the Asansol Lok Sabha constituency BJP has fielded singer Babul Suprio where it hopes to get mileage from a huge Hindi speaking population. But Trinamool Congress workers have already targeted Babul Suprio’s campaign rallies. The BJP leaders have alleged that the police too have targeted him by implicating him and his party men in the Arms Act, which is ridiculous.BJP is convinced that this so-called cheap propaganda tactics adopted by the TMC will not pay them rather they would become counterproductive for them as this is a parliamentary election and not an Assembly election.
The BJP hopes that apart from a ‘Modi Wave’ which has touched Bengal’s shores, a Hindu vote polarisation following Muslim appeasement policies of the Mamata Banerjee government will also help it.
Narendra Modi has, so far, held two public meetings in the State. At his latest rally at Siliguri on April 10, where he called for a real ‘poribartan’, he went all out against Mamata Banerjee unlike in 2011.
-Asim Kumar Mitra
Revival of NDA, Jaya eyes 2016 polls
Tamil Nadu is one of the important states for polls not only due to 39 Parliamentary seats but also because of the political developments taking place in the state at eleventh hour before the polls. There are many reasons due to which the state politics hogged the limelight for long.
The BJP has forged a grand alliance in the state. This is the most ambitious grand alliance by BJP in any state for 16th Lok Sabha elections.
In Tamil Nadu, it is being seen as the biggest achievement by BJP in pre-election season. It has almost forged alliance with most of the parties which take side in pre election season to ride on anti-incumbency wave in the state. This situation is the win-win scenario for Jayalalithaa. The anti-Jayalalthaa votes are being divided into the Congress, Dravida Munnetra Khazagham (DMK) and the NDA. This is sufficient for Jayalalithaa to have a say in the poll. Even, Alagiri factor was enough to give most needed impetus to Jaya during the polls, the evolving political scenario is a big comfort for Jayalalithaa.
Among many regional players who are competing against each other for best performance is now confined to Mamata v/s Jayalalithaa. In first sight, Nitish Kumar, Mulayam Singh Yadav, Navin Patnaik seem out of the race. Jayalalithaa has some long term political planning to go with the present political scenario. In Tamil Nadu, it is for five year tenure for DMK and AIADMK. The voters will automatically opt for the other party due to anti-incumbency factor and the on-going political developments.
Since there is a creation of new vote bank for NDA in state politics, it is a big comfort for AIADMK and big headache for DMK. If the NDA remains intact till 2016 assembly poll, the fight will be between three groups instead of two like in past several polls. The NDA will divide anti-incumbency votes of DMK as the PRAP did in Andhra Pradesh.
So, the main benefit of these political developments will be in 2016 assembly poll for Jaya. It is very unlikely that she go for Prime Minister’s post as she does not want to have the same treatment to her by the allies as being meted out by to Vajapyee during 1998. So, the main target of Jaya is 2016 assembly poll.
The biggest advantage for NDA in southern India is the last minute support by AINRC in Pondicherry. This alliance has given NDA a big thrust among non-committed voters, who make up their mind at eleventh hour. Pondicherry and Tamil Nadu have the same political dimensions. It was the victory of Pondicherry which has given much needed impetus to the late MGR in 1977 Tamil Nadu polls.
Revival of BJP led-NDA in Tamil Nadu is a big comfort for Jayalalithaa. She may even go for some tactical politics. She will look out for the Government formation at Centre firstly and then want to have its cards open. First, she may go against Modi by her utterances. But in case of shortage in majority of the NDA, she may walk out from the Lok Sabha during voting. In case of even worse scenario for Modi, she may engineer defection in her party and let them join the Treasury Bench for comfort of Modi-led NDA.
By and large the BJP is going to perform much better in Tamil Nadu. It has formed a rainbow coalition of parties of DMDK, PMK and MDMK. Now the contest is completely between Jayalalithaa-led alliance and Modi led NDA being headed in the state by Vijaykanth. Now the DMK is relegated to distant third spot, while the Congress behind the DMK. The biggest shot in favour of Modi is the AINRC joining NDA under Modi. It has sent much better message to all the 40 seats in TN/Pondicherry region. The AINRC’s last minute coming to NDA has brought new vigour to the NDA on these seats. In caste centric TN politics also the coalition by NDA is an excellent work.
-Abhay Kumar
Modi wave rattles Assam Congress
Narendra Modi started his hurricane campaign in Assam from February. The never before recorded massive turnouts at Guwahati to listen him, his dream and vision for the development of Assam, was like they all were giving standing ovation to him. His 45 minute speech tore through the ‘facade of development’ of UPA and Gogoi Government for the condition of health, drinking water, education and power structures as well as infrastructure build up for electrification and industrialization, communication network and generation of employment opportunities. To create the mindset and support for the remaining elections to the Lok Sabha seats of Guwahati, Mangaldoi, Nagaon, Barpeta, Kokrajhar and Dhubri. In the first phase he covered the rallies for Silchar, Karimganj and Diphu. His second phase created the necessary ambiance for the Parliamentary seats of Lakhimpur, Jorhat, Dibrugarh, Tezpur and Kaliabor.
Modi, not leaving behind the most burning issue of Hindu Bengali refugees branded as ‘D’ voters and hunted down by the police, declared that after becoming the Prime Minister, he would strike down the relevant legislation. Significantly, the injustice, exploitation and oppression of the tea garden workers have been taken up and assured that justice would be done to them.
The cynics and critics scoff at ‘Gujarat model of development.’ Modi challenged them to come and see for themselves how huge and long pipelines linking river sources for supply of safe drinking water have been laid down across the state extending up to Rann of Kutch. Hydel power projects have led to industrialisation and creation of employment opportunities. He rolled out long list of achievements under NDA for north east and in his own state to debunk any myth about Gujarat in particular and to silence his baiters, branding him as ‘Muslim-hater’.
CM and his ministers went berserk to target Narendra Modi to stop his juggernaut. They dug out all sorts of wild allegations from their cupboard to downsize and downplay him. Himanta Biswa Sarma, education minister, fumed “It is not water, but the blood of Muslims that flow through the pipelines of Gujarat.” He appealed to the Muslims to go to mosques to pray to Allah to stop Modi from the Delhi seat. Another minister Siddique Ahmed said “communal riots will break out if Modi becomes Prime Minister.” Nazrul Islam, Minister of Food and Supply, gave the most hate speech to caution “blood will flow in Assam.” Gautom Roy, Minister of PHE, maverick and always strutting and fretting, made the hate speech to denigrate Modi.
Rahul Gandhi, Congress Vice President said, “No need of Gujarat model, Assam model of development was enough” to draw only derision and ridicule from the people. Rahul Gandhi’s flop shows left the CM and his brigade with no choice but to call Modi by several names and follow the infamous Goebel’s theory “repeat a lie ten times, it becomes truth” to paint Narendra Modi ‘communal’ and ‘ominous’ for the nation.
For how long the Congress will continue to ‘befool us.’ The game plan of Congress and its crony parties was now clear; ‘blame BJP for every communal riot and harvest the benefits for political advantage,’ Aminul candidly said.
Massive turnouts were seen at the election rallies at Lakhimpur, Jorhat, Tezpur, Dibrugarh, Dhubri, Barpeta and Nagaon in three phases concluding on April 24 addressed by Narendra Modi. State media, print and electronic described them as “historic and unparallel” in the political history of Assam and a clear signal to throw UPA lock, stock and barrel out of power for ‘change.’ While Badaruddin Ajmal lost track in maintaining balance between the UPA at the centre and the state.
– Jyotilal Chowdhury
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