p Whether winning or losing BJP and Congress both are holding on their vote bank of average 35-40 per cent
p High turnouts help BJP and low turnouts help Congress, which confirms the simplistic urban electoral theory of the amount of enthusiasm among city dwellers to go out to vote being directly proportional to BJP’s performance
p Once turnouts cross the 60% threshold, BJP has a good chance of winning this state – which creates a big area of opportunity as the voter turnout could potentially be in the 60-65% range this time
p In the mood of anti-incumbency, BJP requires 5 per cent increase in its vote share while new entrant like AAP requires a leap of about 35 Per cent.
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