By MV Kamath
SO, Barack Obama has won a second term as President, despite the fact that the unemployment rate in the United States still stands as high as 7.9 per cent? That is the highest figure since the Great Depression of the 1930s with economic growth moving at a snail’s pace. Obama’s success is attributed to support from three sections of society: the blacks, the youth and, strangely enough, women voters, not to mention from a growing Spanish-speaking electorate. What does his victory speak for Indo-U.S. relations? How does it affect India’s economic concerns and its strategic interests vis-à-vis Pakistan and China?
Obama’s opposition to outsourcing work to India companies is well-known but, in actual terms, the reported job losses to American youth, truly speaking is no cause for the U.S, to worry. Considering that it is facing a shortage of 224,000 high-tech workers, those in the employment field believe that the Indian I.T. industry is more part of America’s solution today than a problem. That may explain the optimism displayed by such concerned industrialists in India as Bharti Group chairman Sunil Bharti Mittal, or Infosys Executive Chairman S. Gopalakrishnan and Godrej Group Chairman and Confederation of Indian Industries (CII) president Adi Godrej who have openly expressed support to Obama. Prime Minister Dr Manmohan Singh himself has expressed his hope that with Obama’s re-election, economic and defence ties between India and the U.S. would be furthered.
India is now becoming a major client for US military equipment and several deals have already been signed for purchase of high-tech materials such as maritime surveillance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft. At the same time U.S. has also eased its Export Controls and Technology security policies for India. It may be remembered that as recently as June this year, U.S. Defence Secretary Leon Panetta had come to Delhi and signed three defence pacts, noting that U.S.-India relationship “should become more strategic, more practical and more collaborative”. In a lecture that Panetta addressed at the Institute of Defence Studies and Analysis he went further, saying that U.S. defence relationship with India “is growing even more collaborative as we seek to do more advanced research and development, share new technologies and enter into joint production of defence articles”. What, in practical terms this means remains to be seen.
In the past India has been largely dependent on the Soviet Union for arms and equipment and this development may do a good deal of harm to Russo-Indian relations. For all the big words and high talk indulged in by Panetta, Delhi does not sound over-excited. It may be a reflection of sixty-odd years of watching America from close quarters. Delhi is painfully aware that Washington has a high stake in Islamabad and won’t let go off it at any price. How can India ever be a “strategic partner” with the U.S. which has had Pakistan to play that role at India’s expense? If the United States is serious about partnering with India, the first thing it must do is to put the Pakistan Army in its place, which would be at the bottom of the ladder.
The Pakistan Army is in no mood to let any civil government lay down the law for it. It even had the impertinence to warn the Pakistan Supreme Court to be chary of Army interests. In this it is following the precedent set by the Myanmar Army for decades in keeping civil forces at bay and has only recently opened the gates to the newly-elected government, realizing , even if a bit too late, than in the ultimate analysis, a military regime attracts no friends, much less economic aid.
The Pakistani Army, on the contrary, has had nothing to fear all these years for obvious reasons. Washington wanted to keep it in good mood and kept pouring dollars into the Army kitty year after year, even when being fully aware that the Army was supporting terrorism all the way. As Mitt Romney in his debate with Obama truthfully noted, “despite a strained relationship with Pakistan, the United States cannot accord to ‘divorce’ it being a nation with a stock of over 100 nuclear weapons”. If the US is in no mood to ‘divorce’ Pakistan, surely, can India be expected to be a bigamous partner to Washington? The fact remains that the United States is in an unenvious relationship with Pakistan. It is damned if it cuts off its relationship with its long-time associate and damned if it doesn’t. Either way India will have to go its own way, but then is Pakistan, by any chance, in for a change? If Imran Khan, chief of the Tehreek-e-Insaaf is to be believed, if his party comes to power, he would not allow terrorism against India to originate from his country.
Stressing for a need to build a “new relationship” with India, in an address to the World Economic forum, Imran Khan said there will be “no more trying to resolve our problems through militancy and military but through politics” and that ” the moment we form the government, we will be able to control militancy and terrorism in the country”. Presumably he will also bring the ISI under control. The fact remains that in the matter of Pakistan, the U.S. can be of no help to India. What will happen if the U.S. withdraws most of its troops from Afghanistan is another matter. As it happened in Vietnam, the only option open to the US is to get out of Afghanistan in toto. India would prefer to initiate a process of reconciliation between the government and the Afghan Taliban and the latter in its English language website has appreciated Delhi’s stand, calling India “a significant country in the region”. In any event India’s approach to Afghanistan is not subject to U.S. aspirations. All of which is only to say that Obama’s return to power is not going to make much difference in the Indo-U.S. relations.
As for relations with China, with the Old Guard walking towards the sunset and a new pack of rulers taking on the mantle of leadership, one can only wait and see in which direction Sino-Indian relations will move. One has been hearing friendly noises emanating from Beijing and if they are any indication, — and at this point nothing can be taken for granted — then, as in the case with Pakistan, so in its relations with China, India will have reason to take a stance independent of what Washington may have in mind. For India, what matters is its own ultimate interests.
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