In the 2003 Hollywood blockbuster The Recruit, the protagonist played by Al Pacino stated to a potential CIA recruit, ‘What you see, what you hear, nothing is what it seems’. PM Narendra Modi’s United States visit marked by profound display of bonhomie, reiterating pledges of commitment to the Indo-US Comprehensive Global and Strategic Partnership, vindicated the above-mentioned phrase. While PM Modi consistently maintained his composure, gave positive vibes and focused on the crucial deliberations, at least some of the incidents there, which could hardly have happened without some kind of tacit approval of sections of US Government, indicate that there was more than what meets the eyes.
Washington’s Double Standards
Barely a day or two before the beginning of PM Modi’s US visit, some ubiquitous District Court in Southern District of New York issued a summon to Government of India, NSA Ajit Doval and former RAW Chief Samant Goel in connection to a civil lawsuit filed by Gurpatwant Singh Pannun, designated as a terrorist by India, and a fugitive, now residing in the US. That the US Government is ultra-sensitive about the Pannun affair, is nobody’s secret and is a vindication of the sheer hypocrisy and double standard of Washington, on the issue of ‘War on Terror’. This lawsuit and the summon was nothing but to provoke the Indian Government. But Modi maintained composure and was not willing to be distracted. The moot question is whether or not, the likes of Pannun can file a lawsuit against a visiting Head of State without the green signal from some powerful people of the US Government.
Washington’s Cosying up with Khalistanis
Before PM Modi arrived in the US, the White House hosted a certain group of Sikh activists, known for their pro-Khalistan leanings. As per reports, the White House officials assured firm commitment to protecting all Americans from ‘transnational repression’. The wordings were good enough to indicate which way the US State Department wanted to take the game. It was clear from the word go that at least a section of the US Government was setting the trap for Modi to get provoked and react. But Modi remained cool as a cucumber. He was focussed on his objectives of the visit.
Importance of Quad Summit
Among the most crucial aspects of PM Modi’s US visit was invariably the Quad Summit, followed by bilateral meetings with Prime Ministers of Australia and Japan. Modi ensured that Quad continues with its strategic objectivity. He stated that Quad is not against anybody but is focused on maintenance of rule based international order, respect for sovereignty, territorial integrity as well as free, open and inclusive Indo-Pacific. India’s stand on Quad has ensured its evolution as a holistic security alliance rather than a military alliance. By ensuring that China is not mentioned officially, India is making it amply clear that the purpose of Quad for strategic balancing in the Indo-Pacific rather than adversary-hunting-adventure of the West, is more suitable.
Fight Against Cervical Cancer
Some of the most critical deliverables for India from the Quad summit includes the resolution on Quad Cancer Moonshot, a major step forward in the fight against Cervical Cancer. PM Modi pledged that Bharat would provide $7.5 million worth of sampling kits, detection kits and vaccines to countries in the Indo-Pacific. This was followed by a commitment by the Serum Institute of India to provide 40 million HPV doses. Quad’s trust on India to take pioneering steps in the fight against HPV, is a testimony to India’s incredible resolve with which it battled during COVID-19 pandemic, under PM Modi’s leadership, and ensured free vaccination for 100 crore eligible population through domestically manufactured vaccines.
This apart, from ‘Quad-at-Sea Ship Observer Mission’ for the purpose of streamlining interoperability among navies of member states, and for maritime safety, the Maritime Initiative for Training in the Indo-Pacific (MAITRI) for enhancing maritime security framework, the pilot project on ‘Quad Indo-Pacific Logistics Network’ for leveraging shared airlift capacity of Quad members during natural calamities, the ‘Quad Ports of the Future Partnership’ for developing resilient infrastructures in maritime ports, from ‘Semiconductor Supply Chain Contingency Network Memorandum of Cooperation’ for supply chain resilience development, to capacity building of Digital Public Infrastructure, in each of these cases, India stands to gain the maximum.
What Is PM Modi’s Aim?
The reason why PM Modi is focusing so much on the outcomes of Quad is because India’s journey towards a $5 trillion economy by 2027-28, and eventually a $10 trillion economy by 2034-35 pivots considerably on expanding its maritime trade frontiers. It will deepen relationship with key nations in the Indo-Pacific, which is also home to several Global South countries, development of resilient supply chains to ensure disruptions as a result of geopolitical crises, have limited impact in future, on supply chains on critical commodities and building a robust network of ports for expanding landscape of economic outreach.
While India’s digital revolution has worked overwhelmingly to empower crores of people, the template is ideal for many in the Indo-Pacific to emulate, the Memorandum on Semiconductor Supply Chain is extremely crucial given that India is now positioning itself as a major hub for semiconductor development and production.
Interestingly, it may sound preposterous, but in reality, the bilaterals of Modi with Anthony Albanese and Fumio Kishida had more significance than the one perhaps with Biden. There are profound areas of symbiotic growth for India with Australia and Japan. While Japan’s technological prowess needs manufacturing landscape and market, wherein India perfectly suits the bill, in case of Australia, its huge repository of minerals can ideally fuel the giant wheels of India’s economic growth story in future.
The Defence Deal Chessboard
Nevertheless, Modi did announce that India would soon procure 31 Predator MQ-9B drones for India’s Armed Forces. This deal is crucial for India. Even as the Biden administration may term it as a feather in the cap, news emerged that the French Government was offering India support for construction of nuclear attack submarines, a potential 100 per cent Transfer of Technology (ToT) for 110 kilo-newton thrust jet engine among others.
The ensuing Indo-French Strategic Dialogue slated to be held on September 30, to be represented by NSA Ajit Doval, is an indication that India would continue to deepen its defence cooperation with France, and is seriously considering other options in the realm of combat jet engines. It has learnt lessons from GE’s alleged go-slow tactics on delivery of F-404 engines.
Interestingly, this year the Modi Government sanctioned two major projects concerning fighter jet engines. Both incidentally are of Russian origin. The first being of 100 Klimov RD-33 engines for India’s Mig-29 fleet, while the second, a much bigger one is for 240 units of AL-31FP to power India’s massive Sukhoi-30 MKI fleet, both to be licensed and manufactured in India by HAL. It is also interesting that before the end of this calendar year, India is also expected to sign a contract for three more Scorpene class submarines, and 26 Rafale-M fighter jets, both being of French origin.
The Diaspora Connect
As part of his three-day tour, PM Modi also addressed a massive gathering of Indian diaspora at New York. Much like his previous such addresses to Indian diaspora, he reiterated the India story, the progress so far, and acknowledged the role played by them as some of the greatest ambassadors of India. Modi specifically used the term ‘Rastra Doot’ for them. Over the last one decade of Modi era, this has been one of the key hallmarks of India, i.e. to recognise the sheer intrinsic strength of the expatriate population to take forward Brand India. Even while mentioning some of the key achievements of his Government over the last 10 years, he consistently, and rightfully stayed away from using the overseas arena for domestic political mudslinging that in the recent past has been persistently done by his political opponents. In other words, he did not fall for the bait that was laid for him. Modi showed considerable maturity in it.
Indo-US Ties Must Grow
In fact, in spite of the underlying tensions between US and India, especially perhaps because of a section of the Biden administration, rather the State Department’s alleged intransigence, the Indo-US relation in its natural discourse has all that it takes to make it an unprecedented and symbiotic story of mutual growth. There are several areas of convergence between India and the US, especially in the realm of next generation technology development and supply chain grid formation. The US and India have indeed signed several critical agreements over the last one decade to enhance strategic partnership. At the UN Summit of the Future, PM Modi, though not directly, reiterated the dire need for the UN to reform. Most today have stopped hoping for anything from the UN, be it in the fight against terrorism, resolving conflicts among states, combating epidemics or battling natural calamities. The developing world has more hope from forums like G20 or BRICS than the UN. Either UN reform or it would be reduced to irrelevancy.
Strategic Autonomy Remains Non-Negotiable
Modi’s US visit distinctly indicated that he would not be swayed by any kind of distraction, and would continue to focus on paving a seamless and sustainable path for India’s leap into a $5 trillion economy by 2027, and potentially a $10 trillion economy in the next one decade. By then India would be too big to be rattled, too indispensable in the global supply chain, to be disturbed. For that, Indo-US cooperation is a must.
However, in October this year, PM Modi would also attend the BRICS Summit, and would push the India story with the same vigour there as well, work with other BRICS partners to develop an alternate multilateral framework that would cater to aspirations of the Global South more than the present structure. In other words, India, even while being a natural partner of the West, for many reasons, especially that of the US, is not going to give up on its strategic autonomy.
Stable Bharat Suits the West
PM Modi’s stoic approach in the US, despite provocations and underlying tensions, does not mean that he is not aware of the challenges ahead. It is for sure that attempts for an Arab Spring type of regime change that was orchestrated in Bangladesh was not the last one. It is for sure that more attempts of disruptions inside India, creation of anarchy type situation through civil unrest in the name of protests, with clear external linkages, is just round the corner. And India is prepared. The tell-tale signs pointing fingers towards key players in the West orchestrating many of these through different fronts, are for all to see, While India is clear that it wants good relation with all, and particularly with the West, it is the West, and especially US, which needs to have clarity as to what they want out of India. Extending hands of cooperation and orchestrating disruptions cannot go hand in hand. It is in their interest too to have a stable, strong, vibrant and progressive India. Running with the hare and hunting with the hounds approach would be counterproductive.
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