Jharkhand: How Champai Soren’s exit could impact JMM on tribal reserved seats in assembly polls

Ranchi: Former Chief Minister of Jharkhand, Champai Soren on Wednesday, August 28 resigned from the prime membership of Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) along with the other portfolios held by him as a minister in the Hemant Soren led state government.

The 7 term MLA from Saraiekela state assembly seat tendered his resignation citing disappointment over the current working style and policies of his previous organization which according to him has shaped his decision to part ways with the party.

The development has arrived months after the senior leader was removed from the post of the Chief Minister, a position given to him after Enforcement Directorate arrested the then and incumbent Chief Minister Hemant Soren on charges of his alleged involvement in a money laundering case on January 31 this year.

Considered as one of the heavyweights of JMM in the state, Champai Soren following his resignation from the CM’s post later made startling revelations that he was humiliated and was even not informed about his removal from the post prior to the meeting of MLA group.

Chamapi’s allegation led to a major political upheaval in the poll bound state of Jharkhand with many opposition leaders alleging the JMM for adhering to parivarvaad (nepotism) and insulting a popular tribal leader like Champai in the process.

 

Days later, though the speculations over political equations arising after Champai’s rebel seems to be settling down in the state with the former JMM leader all set to officially join the prime opposition, Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in Ranchi on Friday, speculations are made that the very development could lead to a split in the tribal community votes which could accordingly shape the outcome of the upcoming state assembly polls.

Impact on tribal community

It must be noted here that the state of Jharkhand has a significant population of tribal community which constitutes an overall share of around 26 per cent in the state’s population. Further the support of community is considered crucial in winning elections in three out of the five  administrative divisions of the state i.e. the Santhal, Kolhan and South Chota Nagpur divisions.

Here Kolhan and South Chota Nagpur has a predominant tribal community population where tribal votes could be impacted by Champai’s exit from JMM, given his association with the Saraikela assembly seat of the Kolhan division since 1991. Further Champai presence could also boost the BJP’s chances in securing tribal votes in Santhal division which forms around 28 per cent of its population and has 7 out of the total 28 seats reserved for the Scheduled Tribes (ST) community in the state.

Here the BJP has been long raising the issue of infiltration and its ramification on the local tribal community  which has been recently endorsed by Champai who stated that “the existence of tribals are in danger due to Bangladeshi infiltration”. It is assumed that Champai’s induction in BJP will further strengthen the party’s stand on the issue which is expected to be at the forefront of BJP campaign in the upcoming electoral battle.

 

BJP’s quest for winning back tribal voters

It must be noted that of late the BJP has been aggressively encircling the Hemant Soren led alliance government on the issues pertaining to tribal community, a move seen by many as an effort to win back the tribal voters who have shown sign of dissatisfaction with Narendra Modi led party in the state in recently concluded Lok Sabha polls.

Notably in the polls held in May-June this year, while the BJP performed exceptionally well in the unreserved seats registering victory in all the nine Lok Sabha seats it failed to register a single victory in all the ST reserved seats.

Speculations were made that the performance of the BJP in tribal reserved seats was an outcome of consolidation of tribal votes which aligned firmly with Hemant Soren who was then lodged in jail. It was further claimed by a few that the popularity of Champai the then Chief Minister also played a part in the INDIA bloc victory on the ST reserved seats.

Though much have changed since the Lok Sabha elections in the state as not only the BJP has run an aggressive campaign against the coalition government on the issue linked to corruption, dwindling population of the tribal community, status of law and order and Bangladeshi infiltration since then but Hemant Soren reinstallation as the state’s CM following removal of Champai has also contributed towards a speculated split in the tribal community which is expected to culminate in the voting pattern during assembly polls.

It is worth mentioning here that the Narendra Modi led party had secured a major chunk of tribal votes in both state and Lok Sabha polls in other states suggesting that the consolidation of tribal votes in favor of the INDIA block in Lok Sabha polls in Jharkhand could have been the combined outcome of various concurrent and local factors which may turnaround in assembly polls.

Anti-incumbency factor for JMM

One of the major issue for the JMM led coalition in the state will be to deal with the anti-incumbency factor which was more or less on display during various protests by separate groups lately. Further the government led by Soren was also on the receiving end for alleged charges of corruption which could further dent a damage to coalition chances for a comeback in the state.

Read more at: Congress-JMM government of Jharkhand engaged spy behind Champai Soren; 2 detained in Delhi: Himanta Biswa Sarma……

It is being assumed that the focus of the INDIA block will however revolve around securing the major chunk of the tribal votes banking on which the coalition had a successful run in the Lok Sabha and previous assembly polls. Though here the major challenge for the Hemant Soren led alliance would be to keep the tribal votes intact by halting any split along foiling any future attempts of rebellion.

In all the induction of Champai Soren in the BJP has possibly added to the troubles of JMM led coalition which is now treading cautiously on his exit, sensing that Champai’s parting ways with the party could lead to a split in its traditional vote bank especially in Kolhan region. The same was reflected evidently in the Chief Minister recent remark who on the question of Champai’s recent allegations responded by quoting that the “People of the state will decide if there has been any shortcoming in our government.”