The European Union (EU) elections of 2024 have just concluded. This is a significant moment in the political landscape of Europe. These elections are important because of people’s verdict and timing which is about to have some serious consequences for the EU and the world at large. The election outcomes show that people’s views are changing and could set a new precedent in EU politics.
How do EU Elections work?
Elections to the EU Parliament are held every five years. Each Member State of the EU conducts its own election based on National Election Laws but follows proportional representation. The number of Members of the European Parliament (MEP) is always proportional to its Member States population. The president is elected by MEP for a renewable term of 2.5 years who represents EU Parliament and EU relations with other EU institutions. Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) make laws together with representatives from Governments across Europe, covering everything from support for economies to reducing poverty, tackling climate change and ensuring security. Member States nominate one Commissioner following internal consultations. MEPs highlight important political, economic, and social matters while advocating for democracy, human rights, freedom as well as equality enshrined in its basic values. The Parliament approves this Budget and oversees its spending.
Gain for Right-wing Parties
The EU has been greatly influenced by the post-World War II world order, dominated and led by the USA, which emphasised human rights, freedom, democracy, equality, and the rule of law. The tumultuous past of Europe and subsequent World Wars in the 20th Century as a result of aggressive nationalism led by right wing political parties had made it difficult for the European right to get a clear mandate in the EU elections. However, things have taken a different turn in 2024 EU elections, with right-wing political parties gaining support throughout the European Union. Issues like migration, economy and social policies played a significant role in shaping the election results. Far-right parties made significant gains in France and Germany, which are considered the driving forces behind the EU.
Resurgence of Right-wing Politics in Germany
The resurgence of right-wing politics in Germany needs a special mention because of its bitter past. The right-wing political parties ceased to exist in the political discourse of Germany, leaving out a few underground neo Nazi organisations after the end of the World War II. Germany’s AfD (Alternative für Deutschland), a far-right party that has been in the spotlight for its controversial views, secured 16.1 per cent of the seat share in this elections, making it the second-largest party after Christian Democratic Union (CDU). It is to be noted that AfD managed to increase its voter share despite being involved in a cascade of controversies (including their contacts with neo Nazis who are under constant watch by the German state) from time to time. The infamous Refugee Dilemma in 2015 and recent rallies demanding Islamic caliphate in Hamburg had given an impetus to the increase of vote share for AfD. Traditionally, the areas that were formerly considered as a part of East Germany are the bastions of AfD. These elections indicate that AfD is slowly making inroads into other regions of Germany due to their strong stance on migration and the Ukraine war.
Cohabitation in France
Meanwhile, in France, President Emmanuel Macron dissolved the National Assembly and called for new Parliamentary elections following a significant defeat by the far-right National Rally (RN) in the EU election. In a national address, Macron acknowledged the results and dubbed it as “not a good outcome for parties that support Europe” and expressed his concerns about the rise of nationalist forces and the far right. The first round of elections for the lower house National Assembly is scheduled for June 30, with the second round set for July 7. Marine Le Pen’s far-right RN won the country’s vote in the European Parliament election with RN leading with 31.37 per cent of the vote, while Macron’s centrist Renaissance party stood at 14.60 per cent. Interestingly, the Left party’s La France Insoumise (LFI), which is considered as extreme Left rhetoric in France, got 9.89 per cent of vote share. Macron’s decision to call snap elections comes after a significant defeat. It is anticipated that with the support of other right-wing political parties in France, Jordan Bardella, who is currently the president of RN, has a fair chance of becoming Prime Minister of France at the young age of 28 if the party alliances work out in the upcoming French presidential elections. In such a scenario, Macron might continue as President of France but with a limited power to exercise while in office. This may lead to cohabitation in France.
Similarly, in Austria, the far-right, Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ) narrowly secured first place in the EU Parliamentary election. The FPÖ garnered 25.4 per cent of the vote, edging out the conservative Austrian People’s Party (ÖVP) with 24.5 per cent and the Social Democratic Party of Austria (SPÖ) with 23.2 per cent. Pre-election polls had indicated a 3.5 per cent lead for the far-right party over the ÖVP. This is the first time that FPÖ has achieved first place in a nationwide election in Austria. During its campaign, the party criticised the EU’s military aid to Ukraine amid Russia’s invasion, using the slogan “Stop the EU madness”.
Results in Italy and Spain
In Italy, the far-right Brothers of Italy, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, secured most votes in the EU Parliamentary election. State broadcaster RAI reported that Brothers of Italy received 26.8 per cent of the vote. The centre-Left opposition’s Democratic Party (PD) came in second with 24.1 per cent, while the five-Star Movement obtained 10 per cent. The conservative Forza Italia party was projected to gain 9.6 per cent, and the far-right League was estimated to win 10 per cent. Meloni governs in a coalition with Forza Italia and the League.
In Spain, Spain’s centre-right People’s Party (PP) secured the most seats in Sunday’s European election, winning 22 out of the 61 seats allocated to the country. Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s Socialists obtained 20 seats. The Vox party, known for its far-right ideology, managed to grab the third spot. It increased its representation from four lawmakers to six, which is quite a feat.
Spotlight on Social Democrats
On the other hand, the Left-wing and green parties in the Nordic countries made some impressive gains, while the support for far-right parties took a bit of a hit. Moving on to Sweden, the Social Democrats emerged as the big winners, snagging the title of the largest party in the European elections. They secured a sizable 25 per cent of the votes. Meanwhile, the anti-immigration Sweden Democrats party had their sights set on surpassing Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s conservative Moderate Party for the second spot. However, they faced a setback and for the first time in their history, they lost ground in an election. They managed to secure 13.2 per cent of the vote, falling behind both the Moderate Party and the Green Party.
In Denmark, the Socialist People’s Party had reason to celebrate as it became the largest party with a solid 17.4 per cent of the vote. And let’s not forget Finland! The socialist Left Alliance pulled off a surprise victory, garnering a noteworthy 17.3 per cent of the vote. This secured them three out of Finland’s 15 seats in the European Parliament, a significant increase from their previous one seat. Prime Minister Petteri Orpo’s National Coalition Party still managed to win the most votes with a respectable 24.8 per cent, earning them four seats. However, the far-right Finns Party, which is part of Orpo’s coalition government, saw a substantial drop in support. They only managed to secure 7.6 per cent of the votes, down 6.2 percentage points, and lost one of their seats in the process. Overall, it’s clear that the recent EU elections in the Nordics brought about some interesting shifts in the political landscape.
Summary of Election Results
European People’s Party (EPP): EPP remains the largest party in the European Parliament, but with a smaller majority. This means a big chunk of the electorate still prefers centre-right policies. But with a smaller majority it also means voters are spreading their support across other parties.
Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D): S&D is second biggest and has survived the challenges. Its agenda is social justice, workers’ rights and fighting inequality. It is stable, so a big chunk of the electorate still wants social and economic reforms to reduce inequality.
Renew Europe (RE): RE has gained seats, so there is a growing appetite for progressive reforms and pro-European policies. It is showing that there is a demand for innovation in governance, digital transformation and more EU integration.
Greens/European Free Alliance (Greens/EFA): Greens have gained many seats, driven by environment and youth vote. This is proof that climate change and sustainability are becoming more important for European voters and the Greens are a force to be reckoned with in shaping future EU policies. They are being perceived by many as Europe’s new left. Identity and Democracy (ID): ID has also gained seats, so a minority of voters still prefer nationalist and anti-immigration policies. They are driven by immigration, national sovereignty and skepticism towards the EU’s central power.
What are the Consequences?
Policy Directions
Geopolitical Implications
Transatlantic Relations: The EU’s approach to foreign coverage may experience a shift, specifically with a more distinguished green presence advocating for stronger climate diplomacy. This should affect relations with main powers like the United States and China, because the EU pushes for global environmental standards and climate agreements.
Defense and Security: With varied views on defense, the EU may face challenges in forming a cohesive security coverage. The stability between NATO cooperation and unbiased EU protection capabilities can be vital. Increased defense spending and the idea of a unified EU defense strategy will come into picture. In addition to this, the EU may try to free itself from the US’s sphere of influence and decrease its dependence on it.
Trade Policies: Trade agreements and partnerships might be reevaluated. The EU might be seeking to encompass stringent environmental and exertion protections in its trade dealings with the rest of the world.
Internal Dynamics and Introspection Legislative Gridlock: The fragmentation of the Parliament may also result in problems in passing rules, requiring enormous coalition-building and compromises.
Rise of Populism: The surge of Right-wing parties also suggests an undercurrent of populism that mainstream parties have to address to prevent further division in the EU. Addressing the root cause of populism, which includes financial inequality and cultural discontent, multiculturalism, political correctness will be essential for preserving EU team spirit.
The 2024 EU elections have set a new precedent in European politics. The outcomes replicate a complex interplay of conventional and emerging priorities of some of the electorate and reflect people’s mandate in the EU. How the newly elected European Parliament navigates these challenges and opportunities will extensively affect the future of the EU and its role on the world stage. The coming years could be vital in determining whether or not the EU will address the concerns of its citizens while simultaneously playing a constructive role in a multi-polar world.
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