“We must remember that an entity conceived in hatred will last only as long as that hatred lasts. This hatred will overwhelm the relations between India and Pakistan. In this situation it will not be possible for India and Pakistan to become friends and live amicably unless some catastrophic event takes place.” —Maulana Abul Kalam Azad, in the interview as Congress President to journalist Shorish Kashmiri for a Lahore based Urdu magazine, Chattan, in April 1946 (Translated and republished by Arif Mohammad Khan for Covert magazine https://alaiwah.wordpress.com/2010/01/19/maulana-abul-kalams-predictions-about-pakistan-coming-out-true/)
The Uri attack is not the first terrorist attack from across the border. A series of attacks have been undertaken with the covert or overt support by the nefarious neighbour. Still the Uri attack on September 18, 2016 targeting a military camp received unprecedented attention in recent times, almost similar to that of terrorist attack on the Indian Parliament. The context, background and internal and global response to the dastardly attack have been totally different, without analysing the same we cannot gauge the future response.
First we need to understand that the Uri attack, or for that matter even attempts to trigger trouble in J&K, is a response to growing isolation and resultant frustration within Pakistan. When Bharat is spreading its diplomatic dynamism all over the world at bilateral and multi-lateral level, the credibility of Pakistan is diminishing day by day. The US has cut-down the credit line and concession to the one time trusted ally. Bangladesh and Afghanistan are openly talking about Pakistan as a terror sponsoring State. Bharatiya position on terrorism is accepted all over the world. Most importantly, the internal situation in Pakistan is in flux. Economy is in doldrums, society is fragmented, from Muhajirs to Baluchis all are raising their voices against the atrocities by the Pakistani State. The system of governance is crumbling. The Army and ISI have effectively used the Panama Papers featuring names of Nawaz Sharif and his family members to dilute, if not dislodge, the civilian government. On this background the best option for Pakistan to divert attention is to aggravate anti-Bharat sentiments. Unfortunately for Pakistan, the situation is so grave that this tested strategy may boomerang this time.
The outrage demanding avenge by the common masses of Bharat is but obvious. According to South Asia Terrorism Portal, since 1988 more than 45,000 security personnel and civilians have lost their lives. As Modi led NDA Government came to power with high expectations on development and security front, people are obviously expecting much stronger action against Pakistan. Modi Government has also been working on various strategies to isolate Pakistan at international level. By raising the issues pertaining to human rights violations in Pak-occupied-Jammu & Kashmir (PoJK) and Baluchistan, Bharat And as Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar said, “PM Narendra Modi's promise to punish those behind the Uri terror attack would not remain words”, so there are all chances of some punitive action against the terrorist groups operating on the neighbouring soil. The diplomatic offensive by Bharat in the Islamic world is more critical as that isolation will matter to Pakistan.
Going beyond the all discussed strategies on diplomatic, economic and military terms, we need to facilitate the process of failing State in Pakistan. Though the US is well aware of the ‘terror’ breeding activities in Pakistan and has been predicting Yugoslovia like fate of Pakistan since 2005, the Superpower will not push Pakistan to the wall with the fear of throwing it in the China lap. So convincing China on the menace of terrorism is the most tedious task Bharat would have to undertake. The very creation of Pakistan was on the wrong premise of hatred, as Maulana Azad said in 1946, so expecting Pakistan to mend ways in favour of peace is illusionary. Only some catastrophic event can eliminate that hatred ingrained in the creation of troubling neighbour. Are we as a nation in a position to calibrate and execute such a strategy in collaboration with the global powers so that the very root of ‘terrorist
mindset’ is eliminated is a critical question.