Intro: In 2014 LS elections, Lalu’s wife & daughter got defeated in their strongholds. Now in order to device his political fortune, Lalu is in company of Nitish Kumar.
The alliance being stitched by the JD (U) in Bihar with RJD has very fundamental differences. The previous alliance between the BJP & JD (U) was for the good governance while the current one of RJD and JD (U) is only for the sake of power. These two players can ditch each other anytime. Bihar masses do not forget till now the verbal duel between Lalu Yadav & Nitish Kumar since 1994 when these two leaders parted their ways. Firstly these two leaders criticised each other politically but later these two veterans targeted each other personally. Such kind of political duel is only witnessed in Tamil Nadu between Jayalalithaa & Karunanidhi’s clan.
In spite of alliance between the RJD & the JD (U) the cadres of these parties are failed to judge who is the senior party. It was clear since beginning in the BJP-JD (U) alliance that the JD (U) is the senior party. Bihar, BJP’s senior most leader Sushil Kumar Modi admitted in public that the JD (U) is the senior party. Modi also acknowledged that before division of the state the BJP was the senior party due to its expansion in the entire State but after division it is the JD (U) which is the bigger party. BJP gives 39 more seats to the JD (U) & acknowledges its seniority in clear terms. In 2000 the NDA appointed Nitish Kumar as the Chief Minister in spite of the fact that BJP was the largest party in the alliance. Nitish Kumar was Union minister at that time.
But the new alliance being stitched by Nitish Kumar with Lalu Yadav has much confusion. Though due to the legal verdict, Lalu Yadav cannot stake his claim to the CM’s post, there is no clear indication from the RJD that it will not stake its claim for the CM’s post in case it will be the bigger party in the alliance. Besides the seat allocation of the 100-100 as being speculated has many wrangling for the voters of these two parties. The seat allocation clearly demonstrates that both the parties are of equal strength within the alliance. The voters of these two parties have competition between themselves as usual since 1995 assembly poll over who will be senior in the post poll scenario. In case of more number of MLAs, Lalu Yadav can go for his family member like wife, daughter or any if his sons for the CM's post. In other words, voters of the parties are of the clear opinion that the bigger party in the alliance will not only dictate terms but also have chances for the CM. This competition between the voters of the two parties may lead to the cross voting. The non-committed voters will have also an agenda that the RJD nominee may become the CM in case of voting for the alliance. The seat distribution will be the biggest test for these two partners Lalu Yadav & Nitish Kumar. They will clash over specific seats particularly on Muslim seats of Seemanchal & Kosi.
The Muslim MPs of the RJD & the Congress Party will try to grab more seats within their specific areas which may lead to new chagrin between the alliance partners. The RJD is demanding seats on its own without keeping in mind the sentiment of the JD (U) like Raghopur which was represented by former CM Rabri Devi but is currently held by the JD (U) MLA Satish Kumar. Lalu is eyeing to field his younger son from the seat. Besides Raghopur seat Mahua is the other seat on which Lalu Yadav’s elder son is staking his candidature. The seat was won by the JD (U) during previous Assembly polls.
The irony is that if the JD (U) will surrender these seats to the RJD then the JD (U) cadres across the state will feel cheated by the party leadership. While, if the RJD doesn't contest from Raghopur then it will bring the RJD cadres on feet against the JD (U).
The next issue between Lalu & Nitish will be that who will take on the BJP/NDA in urban areas. Both the parties will try to put the ally party on these seats against the BJP. Sensing the gravity of the issue the two parties the RJD & the JD (U) are tight lipped on seat distribution. The issue of campaigning by these leaders is also in the queue. The election is the last chance for the Nitish Kumar to bounce back in the mainstream of the state politics while Lalu Yadav will wait for his chance. Nitish also knows that if he loses space then Upendra Kushwaha will replace him. Since Kushwaha & Nitish Kumar have the same constituency to a big extent. Lalu Knows that whether it will be Nitish or the BJP, he or his family would not became the Chief Minister. So his main focus in this Assembly polls is to bounce back in the mainstream of politics. –Abhay Kumar