FAILURE of the two week long talks of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCC), concluded at Doha, to seek commitment from the industrialized countries including China, for reducing carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas emissions, causing global warming, spells doom for many developing countries of the global south. Temperatures have already risen by about 1.4 degrees Fahrenheit (0.8 Celsius), above the pre-industrial times and are now on the track to rise by 4 degree Fahrenheit (20 Celsius) in the next 40 years, and by up to 7.20 Fahrenheit (40 Celsius) by 2100. The growing temperatures are bound to create a severe food crisis, floods and melting of glaciers along with the polar ice, leading to submerging of island nations and many coastal regions. Himalayan glaciers have already begun to melt and the river Ganga may also turn into a seasonal river from a perennial one, if the glaciers disappear with unabated warming from green house gases. The Himalayan glaciers that feed most of the major South Asian rivers viz. the Indus, the Brahmaputra and the Ganga are melting rapidly, as revealed in a major new study.
The field data of last 30 years, satellite images and weather records reveal the retreat of 82 glaciers, area reduction of 7,090 glaciers, and mass-balance change – the difference between the accumulation and loss of ice of 15 glaciers in the seven larger regions of the Himalayas, the Tibetan Plateau and the Pamir Mountains. Glaciers in this region gave birth to major rivers across Southeast Asia and the Far East, from the Ganges to the Mekong, the Yellow and the Brahmputra, which provide water to 20 percent of the world’s population.
Studies reveal that the Himalayan glaciers, which are fed by the Indian monsoons, and are perennial source of water for the Ganga and Brahmaputra are shrinking more rapidly than those in the Pamir Mountains, which were influenced by the westerlies, the prevailing winds. These glaciers gain from winter snow and are less affected by warming, while in the Himalayas it snows during the monsoon season, in summer, and the temperature increase can have a dramatic effect. Rainfall records of the region also indicate that the Indian monsoon is getting weaker while the westerlies are strengthening. Under the present warming conditions, glacier shrinkage might further accelerate in the Himalayas, whereas glaciers might advance in the eastern Pamir regions. It would cause drought and water crisis in northern Bharat.
In East Africa as well, the rising temperatures have began to cause the melting of ice caps of Mt. Kilimanjaro, Mt. Kenya, the Rwenzori Mountains and the Aka Mountains of the Moon, over an accelerated cycle of droughts and floods to the spread of malaria into the previously immune highlands, spurred by warmer climate which allows the anopheles mosquitoes to now flourish at higher altitudes also.
The glaciers on Mt. Kenya have been reported to have shrunk by more than half, over the past 30 years The famous Kilimanjaro ice cap, now is a mere shadow of olden days, and the glacier caps of the Rwenzoris have receded by several kilometers. Here, it is reality already and threatening food production and water sources for tens of millions of people, condemning them to gloom and doom if no major changes take place in the way the world is dealing with climate change right now.
Indeed, unabated rise in global temperatures due to global warming from green house gases is expected to cause changes like rise in sea levels, inundation of low lying coastal belts, even leading to many smaller islands being totally submerged. All of Maldives and large parts of Bangladesh are among the regions that might submerge and go under water.
Some of the islands threatened from rising sea levels, and some of which have already disappeared, need a mention here. Lohachara and Suparibhanga islands of India, where more than 10,000 people lived, have already disappeared into the Bay of Bengal due to global warming. Bermeja Island near the Gulf of Mexico has also disappeared into the ocean, which featured prominently in the maps used between 16th and 19th centuries. Carteret Islands, located in the South Pacific are expected to be totally submerged by 2015. Maldives, an island nation in the Indian Ocean whose high point is only 8 feet with other places in the island are much lower. If the ocean level rises further, this island will disappear. Vanuatu Island, also called as Republic of Vanuatu is another island nation in the South Pacific which may be submerged due to rising ocean level. Tuvalu Island is located between Australia and Hawaii in the Pacific Ocean. The high point is 15 feet. Nearly 11,000 people live here. They are noticing that the waterline is moving closer. They have already started evacuating. New Zealand has agreed to grant refuge to 75 Tuvaluans every year. It is estimated that this island will disappear in 50 years from now. Kiribati Island, officially called as the Republic of Kiribati is located in the central tropical Pacific Ocean is also experiencing rising water levels. Marshall Islands called as Republic of Marshall Islands, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean may become another victim of rising ocean levels. Tonga Island known as the Kingdom of Tonga, is located in the South Pacific Ocean. If ocean levels rise, this island is likely to be affected. These are just a few islands inhabited and facing disappearance. But, there are many more uninhabited islands as well, which are facing disappearance and would thereby cause damage to many plant and animal species.
In Africa, Seychelles is another country which is facing gradually-rising sea levels and threat to the very core of their survival. This is why Seychelle’s President Michel has made it a centerpiece in his foreign policy to form a coalition of equally-threatened small island nations to promote more significant measures to combat climate change. Hence, the coalition of those most affected has demanded that the developed world, seen as the primary polluter and cause of climate change, and also the newly-emerging mega polluters like China, and Russia, should make financial contributions to Africa and small island nations, a notion still rejected by the “haves” but eventually inevitable, now that the principle of compensation appears enshrined in the Doha Resolutions. But, it should not be postponed any longer and the industrial nations, including China, which has been emitting highest quantum of polluting green house gases, causing the most of the global warming, need to be compelled to pay the price of it to the rest of the world.
It is most condemnable that inspite of such severe threats to nature and mankind nothing new could be achieved even after the two week-long exhausting climate change talks from November 26 to December 7; the 194 nations, have just agreed on a deal to extend the Kyoto Protocol for an eight-year period to be implemented by 2020. But the deal left many disappointed as it failed to deliver urgent issues: deep cuts in emissions by rich countries and China (the largest polluter of the day); finance for helping poor countries cope with the impacts of climate change; and climate-induced loss and damage.
The extension of Kyoto Protocol was also adopted by this U.N. climate conference at Doha, after hard-fought sessions and despite objections from Russia. The package of decisions also included vague promises of financing to help poor countries cope with climate change, and an affirmation of a previous decision to adopt a new global climate pact by 2015. But it is all in the air without a time bound action plan. The 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which controls the emissions of rich countries, is considered the main achievement of the negotiations, even though the U.S. rejected it because it didn’t impose any binding commitments on China, which emits highest quantum of green houses gases. Only 15 per cent of the emission is covered by the deal. Kyoto was due to expire this year, so failing to agree on an extension would have been a much deplorable setback for the talks. Despite objections from Russia, which opposed rules limiting its use of carbon credits, the accord was extended through 2020 to fill the gap until a wider global treaty comes to take effect. It would require strong pressure from the public opinion as well, along with all possible efforts.
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