Shyam Khosla
THE Congress party has reasons to gloat over the gains it made in the municipal elections in Karnataka held on March 7. It is for the first time in recent years that the party has emerged as the front runner in any urban area anywhere in the country. In state after state and city after city, the urban voters had rejected the Congress for its utter failure on all fronts. Although the Congress was ahead of all other parties in the civic polls held in 2007 as well, the victory in 2013 is a morale booster for the party as it came in the wake of disastrous and demoralising defeat in Gujarat assembly polls.
Although high hopes of making a clean sweep didn’t fructify, the Congress has succeeded in retaining its leading position in local municipal bodies. As against 1606 seats in urban local bodies it won in 2007, the Congress has captured 1960 wards in 207 urban local bodies – a gain of 356 seats. It will, however, be wrong to presume that the verdict in the municipal elections will automatically translate into the Congress winning the assembly elections. Voters behave differently in local bodies and assembly elections as the issues and context are different. Contrary to what several commentators say, an overwhelming majority of Congress gains are at the cost of the JD (S) and not BJP. Interestingly, amidst the euphoria of “great victory”, many in the state Congress recall that though the party had handsomely won urban municipal polls in 2007 pushing the BJP to the third position, the latter had rallied to win the assembly elections held a year later. Their apprehension based on BJP’s resilience to bounce back is a tribute to the BJP.
As was expected, BJP lost heavily. It could manage only 907 municipal wards against 1180 it held – a loss of 273 seats. Anti-incumbency was a factor but more importantly BJP’s un-ending squabbles and revolts leading to splits in the party led to its defeats even in its traditional bastions like Mangalore, Bellary, Mysore and Gulbarga. BJP is deeply hurt as splits can’t but hurt parties. Former BJP Chief Minister B.S. Yeddyurappa too didn’t emerge unscathed. The party recently launched by him – Karnataka Janata Party (KJP) – scraped through with 274 seats – much below his expectations. Significantly, BJP lost 273 seats and the splinter group led by BSY won in 274 wards. This confirms the perception that the party could have retained its traditional strength in the urban local bodies but for the BSY factor. Yet another splinter group BSR Congress launched by Reddy brothers failed to impress the voters and couldn’t win even a single seat in Bellary though it managed to win 76 wards elsewhere. The national mood against the Congress because of the UPA’s utter failure to check-sky rocketing prices and deal with terrorism and separatism, massive corruption and policy paralysis that should have enabled the BJP to improve its position was neutralised by destabilising feuds in the party and its failure to come up to the public expectations of ethical conduct by its ministers. The voter punished the party in no uncertain terms.
In an era in which regional parties are forging ahead to occupy the space vacated by the Congress, the premier regional outfit in Karnataka – JD (S) – is in decline. It is the biggest loser in this election as JD (S) was runner up in the municipal elections held in 2007 with 1502 seats. This time round, it could manage only 905 seats – a loss of 597. The party is in decline for more than one reason. Its performance during the two and a half year it led the coalition with the BJP disillusioned the masses. It lost its credibility, or whatever was left of it, after it betrayed the BJP and refused to let it complete its term as per the post-poll agreement. A majority of seats JD (S) lost went to the Congress. The rest were cornered by Independents who won in 777 wards.
The BJP has paid the price for failing the people of Karnataka that had voted it into power as a party known for its commitment to ideology, good governance and ethical conduct. Voter’s expectations were largely belied. The national leadership of the party also can’t be absolved of its responsibility for the mess in Karnataka. It failed to handle the developing situation and kept postponing hard decisions till it was too late. Leadership’s inability to evolve a consensus on how to handle unethical ministers and failure to tackle ego-clashes and internal strife cost the party dearly. It is a wakeup call for the BJP. The state will go to polls next month and parliamentary elections are due next year. The stakes are high. Loss in civic elections is not the end of the day. It is both a challenge and opportunity. The party has shown great resilience to bounce back in tough situations. Voters were angry with its self-goal and punished it in civic elections. They may return to the party if they are convinced that party has learnt the right lessons and will not betray them again. Its army of committed and self-less cadres are its greatest strength. It is for the leadership to enthuse them. Moves for reconciliation are reported to be already afoot. A united, honest and bold leadership can do wonders. The complexity of the political situation in the state demands a nuanced and strong response.
